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Isles of Scilly Travel Demand Study Marco Kouwenhoven, Charlene Rohr, Stephen Miller, Hidde Siemonsma, Peter Burge, James Laird (ITS LEEDS) Prepared for the Cornwall County Council The research described in this report was prepared for the Cornwall County Council. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2007 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2007 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 Westbrook Centre, Milton Road, Cambridge CB4 1YG, United Kingdom RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ RAND Europe URL: http://www.rand.org/randeurope To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface In August 2004, a Major Scheme Bid Submission for capital funding support for improved transport links between the Isles of Scilly and the mainland was submitted to the UK Department for Transport. Feedback on the bid highlighted the need for a robust Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) and specifically for the need of an appropriately calibrated and validated mode choice and demand model for travel to the Isles. As a result, in July 2005 Cornwall County Council commissioned RAND Europe together with Accent Marketing and Research and the Institute of Transport Studies (ITS) Leeds to develop the mode choice and travel demand model. The objectives of the study were set out clearly in the brief, i.e.: ‘… to design a mode choice model from Stated and Revealed Preference Surveys of visitors to, and residents of, the Isles of Scilly. The aim of the mode choice model is to demonstrate the value-for-money (or otherwise) for a replacement ferry between the Isles and Penzance.’ This report summarises the findings from that study, setting out the study design, the data collection, the model development and the findings from scenario tests that were conducted as part of the CBA. A number of interesting aspects of the modelling are discussed including the joint usage of stated preference and revealed preference data for model development, the modelling of trip frequency effects, the impacts of capacity restraint on demand forecasting and resulting consumer surplus calculations and the calculation of consumer surplus using the travel demand curve, taking into account both journey time and cost as well as comfort and quality changes. The report should be of interest to government officials evaluating transport infrastructure projects and those designing and specifying transport demand models to forecast travel demand. Parts of the report are highly technical in nature. RAND Europe is an independent not-for-profit policy research organisation that serves the public interest by improving policymaking and informing public debate. Clients are European governments, institutions, and firms with a need for rigorous, impartial, multidisciplinary analysis of the hardest problems they face. This report has been peer- reviewed in accordance with RAND's quality assurance standards (see http://www.rand.org/about/standards/) and therefore may be represented as a RAND Europe product. iii Isles of Scilly: Travel Demand Study RAND Europe For more information about RAND Europe or this document, please contact Charlene Rohr at: RAND Europe Westbrook Centre Milton Road Cambridge CB4 1YG England +44 (0)1223 353 329 [email protected] iv Contents Preface.........................................................................................................................iii Executive Summary.....................................................................................................ix CHAPTER 1 Background .....................................................................................1 1.1 Study Objective .................................................................................................1 1.2 Study Scope .......................................................................................................2 1.3 Forecasting Model Requirements .......................................................................3 1.3.1 The Mode Choice Model......................................................................3 1.3.2 The Trip Frequency Model...................................................................3 1.4 Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Requirements........................................................3 1.5 Traveller Segments.............................................................................................5 CHAPTER 2 Study Design: Data Collection.........................................................7 2.1 Revealed preference survey .................................................................................7 2.2 Stated preference survey .....................................................................................8 2.2.1 Questions 1 – 9: Within-mode experiment ...........................................9 2.2.2 Questions 10 – 17: Between-mode experiment (with ferry).................11 2.2.3 Questions 18 – 21: Between-mode experiment (no ferry available).............................................................................................13 2.3 Stated intentions questions...............................................................................14 CHAPTER 3 Sample Sizes .................................................................................. 17 3.1 RP survey for non-residents..............................................................................17 3.2 Resident RP surveys .........................................................................................18 3.3 Non-resident SP surveys...................................................................................18 3.4 Resident SP surveys..........................................................................................19 CHAPTER 4 Data Quality.................................................................................. 21 4.1 RP survey for non-residents (exclusions) ..........................................................21 4.1.1 Location of recruitment.......................................................................21 4.1.2 Completeness of answers.....................................................................22 4.1.3 Group size...........................................................................................22 4.1.4 Access times and costs .........................................................................22 4.1.5 Travel to Cornwall ..............................................................................22 v Isles of Scilly: Travel Demand Study RAND Europe 4.1.6 Nights spent on the Isles..................................................................... 23 4.1.7 Access times for alternative modes ...................................................... 23 4.1.8 Ticket type ......................................................................................... 23 4.1.9 Conclusion......................................................................................... 23 4.2 RP survey for residents (exclusions) ................................................................. 24 4.3 SP survey for non-residents (exclusions) .........................................................