stbshmnts ervices Cultural services Games of chance Recreational and sporting s Restaurants, cafes etc Accommodation services Hairdressing salons & personal grooming e COICOPS CODE 9.4.1 9.4.2 9.4.3 11.1.1 11.2 12.1.1 North East 242 438 185 1698 216 136 South East 258 420 169 1651 229 139 South West 373 536 192 2146 333 182 West 326 495 184 1954 292 162 CAZ 116 162 51 691 101 51 Inner London 694 1,074 368 4,457 603 334 Outer London 896 1,383 557 5,329 811 475 Greater London 1,590 2,456 925 9,786 1,414 809 237 APPENDIX 8 - RESULTS FROM STAGE 2A (BASE SCENARIO) Turnover estimates – base scenario A8.1 The following tables summarise expenditure on comparison goods for 2006-2031. The 2031 figures are based on the ‘Baseline’ scenario. This assumes that there will be no further development in London, but that population, workforce and expenditure will grow according to GLA/Experian forecasts A8.2 The tables list the classification of each centre (International, Metropolitan, Major, District). ‘Additional’ has been used to describe retail centres where no classification is available: these include retail warehouse parks, out-of-town shopping malls, neighbourhood centres and convenience superstores. 238 Table 3: Modelled comparison goods expenditure for town centres (2006 – 2031) Base scenario. Modelled Expenditure (£m) Centre Name Classification Borough Floorspace (m²) 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Barking & Dagenham Major Barking and Dagenham 20,446 88 104 124 157 198 258 Chadwell Heath District Barking and Dagenham 5,275 14 17 19 24 29 37 Dagenham & Heathway District Barking and Dagenham 10,382 35 41 48 60 75 97 Residual Residual Barking and Dagenham 33,594 61 71 84 104 131 169 Edgware Major Barnet 22,143 92 108 131 162 201 256 Brent Street District Barnet 2,705 20 24 29 36 45 56 Burnt Oak District Barnet 9,051 37 44 53 65 81 103 Chipping Barnet District Barnet 13,489 83 98 118 146 182 229 Church End, Finchley District Barnet 7,934 60 70 84 104 127 158 Colindale/The Hyde District Barnet 5,959 15 20 25 30 39 54 East Finchley District Barnet 4,204 16 18 21 26 31 38 Golders Green District Barnet 5,747 20 24 29 36 44 55 Hendon central District Barnet 11,715 31 37 45 55 69 87 Mill Hill District Barnet 8,706 22 26 32 39 49 62 New Barnet District Barnet 10,558 23 27 32 40 49 62 North Finchley District Barnet 24,813 46 54 65 80 97 121 Temple Fortune District Barnet 8,815 32 38 46 57 70 87 Whetstone District Barnet 6,494 21 24 29 36 44 55 Residual Residual Barnet 172,887 495 580 701 865 1070 1354 Bexleyheath Major Bexley 48,831 247 287 342 424 527 666 Crayford District Bexley 6,504 42 50 60 74 93 117 Erith District Bexley 7,700 20 23 27 34 43 55 Sidcup District Bexley 9,474 37 43 50 62 76 96 Welling District Bexley 19,563 55 62 73 90 112 143 239 Modelled Expenditure (£m) Centre Name Classification Borough Floorspace (m²) 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Residual Residual Bexley 8,864 21 24 29 36 44 55 Kilburn Major Brent 20,230 76 90 108 133 164 206 Wembley Major Brent 16,388 26 31 37 45 57 73 Cricklewood District Brent 30,638 72 85 102 126 155 194 Ealing Road District Brent 2,290 11 13 15 18 22 29 Harlesden District Brent 10,972 30 35 41 50 62 79 Kenton District Brent 4,055 16 19 21 26 32 40 Kingsbury District Brent 6,862 36 42 49 60 74 95 Neasden District Brent 2,573 17 19 22 26 34 46 Preston Road District Brent 2,155 8 9 10 13 16 20 Wembley Park District Brent 8,482 18 21 25 30 37 47 Willesden Green District Brent 7,437 17 20 23 29 35 43 Residual Residual Brent 48,656 211 247 294 360 447 567 Bromley Metropolitan Bromley 108,222 444 515 607 749 924 1,163 Orpington Major Bromley 28,462 83 95 112 138 171 218 Beckenham District Bromley 8,848 34 39 45 55 67 83 Crystal Palace District Bromley 3,491 16 18 21 26 31 39 Penge District Bromley 12,250 28 31 36 44 54 67 Petts Wood District Bromley 7,238 21 24 27 33 41 51 West Wickham District Bromley 10,025 52 59 68 83 102 128 Residual Residual Bromley 40,737 110 128 149 185 230 294 Camden Town Major Camden 27,037 287 345 418 522 651 831 Hampstead District Camden 8,459 48 55 67 82 100 123 Kentish Town District Camden 7,432 52 60 70 87 107 135 Swiss Cottage/Finchley Road District Camden 12,172 41 48 58 71 87 108 West Hampstead District Camden 3,024 18 20 25 31 37 45 240 Modelled Expenditure (£m) Centre Name Classification Borough Floorspace (m²) 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Residual Residual Camden 31,478 96 116 141 179 223 285 Cheapside CAZ Frontage City of London 8,995 46 56 68 86 108 139 Fleet Street CAZ Frontage City of London 4,790 24 29 35 44 56 71 Leadenhall Market CAZ Frontage City of London 9,120 35 43 53 68 85 109 Liverpool Street CAZ Frontage City of London 23,143 187 224 272 342 429 549 Moorgate CAZ Frontage City of London 27,433 228 272 329 413 516 659 Residual Residual City of London 67,645 420 503 607 767 958 1222 Croydon Metropolitan Croydon 180,531 636 738 862 1,053 1,289 1,612 Addiscombe District Croydon 3,490 18 21 24 29 36 44 Coulsdon District Croydon 6,396 18 21 26 32 39 49 Norbury District Croydon 14,669 32 37 42 51 64 82 Purley District Croydon 6,148 14 16 19 23 29 36 South Norwood District Croydon 5,166 12 13 15 19 22 28 Thornton Heath District Croydon 12,672 28 32 37 45 55 69 Upper Norwood District Croydon 4,617 15 17 20 24 30 37 Residual Residual Croydon 122,487 491 568 663 810 995 1250 Ealing Metropolitan Ealing 39,576 239 277 326 400 486 605 Southall Major Ealing 23,572 76 88 105 129 163 213 Acton District Ealing 8,696 28 32 38 47 56 69 Greenford District Ealing 7,952 22 25 29 36 45 59 Hanwell District Ealing 3,902 7 8 9 11 14 19 Residual Residual Ealing 56,576 135 155 179 219 272 349 Enfield Town Major Enfield 30,888 178 206 244 301 375 476 Angel Edmonton District Enfield 9,569 13 15 17 21 26 33 Edmonton Green District Enfield 11,800 14 16 18 22 27 35 Palmers Green District Enfield 10,263 29 33 38 47 57 71 241 Modelled Expenditure (£m) Centre Name Classification Borough Floorspace (m²) 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Southgate District Enfield 8,141 24 28 33 40 48 60 Residual Residual Enfield 80,469 192 222 263 322 400 511 Eltham Major Greenwich 27,198 109 126 149 184 230 293 Woolwich Major Greenwich 30,385 187 220 263 326 411 532 Greenwich West District Greenwich 6,713 28 34 42 53 65 81 Plumstead District Greenwich 2,644 7 8 9 11 14 18 Thamesmead District Greenwich 6,308 25 29 34 41 52 70 Residual Residual Greenwich 58,522 148 176 212 266 331 422 Dalston Major Hackney 25,567 73 86 102 126 157 200 Finsbury Park District Hackney 12,353 28 32 38 47 58 73 Mare Street District Hackney 12,464 38 46 54 68 84 107 Stoke Newington District Hackney 7,457 35 40 47 58 73 94 Residual Residual Hackney 19,338 78 93 110 137 171 218 Fulham Major Hammersmith and Fulham 5,831 85 103 125 156 193 242 Hammersmith Major Hammersmith and Fulham 26,345 150 175 207 255 309 381 Shepherds Bush District Hammersmith and Fulham 14,095 97 113 133 164 200 249 Residual Residual Hammersmith and Fulham 24,564 91 106 125 152 183 224 Wood Green Metropolitan Haringey 76,828 299 347 406 499 613 769 Crouch End District Haringey 11,165 34 39 45 55 66 82 Green Lanes District Haringey 4,928 14 17 20 24 30 38 Muswell Hill District Haringey 10,084 50 57 67 82 98 119 Tottenham District Haringey 5,751 33 38 44 55 69 89 West Green Road District Haringey 3,682 18 20 23 29 36 46 Residual Residual Haringey 26,186 119 137 160 197 246 316 Harrow Metropolitan Harrow 69,401 308 355 418 511 625 782 North Harrow District Harrow 1,887 9 11 12 15 18 23 242 Modelled Expenditure (£m) Centre Name Classification Borough Floorspace (m²) 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Pinner District Harrow 5,354 14 16 18 22 27 33 Rayners Lane District Harrow 5,801 14 16 18 22 27 34 South Harrow District Harrow 7,714 27 31 35 43 53 68 Stanmore District Harrow 2,925 14 16 19 24 29 36 Wealdstone District Harrow 10,144 27 31 36 44 54 66 Residual Residual Harrow 12,508 27 30 35 43 52 65 Romford Metropolitan Havering 103,730 355 417 494 611 753 943 Collier Row District Havering 4,393 20 24 28 34 42 53 Elm Park District Havering 1,858 4 5 5 6 8 10 Harold Hill District Havering 3,345 9 11 13 16 20 25 Hornchurch District Havering 11,710 40 46 54 66 81 100 Rainham District Havering 5,969 10 12 15 18 23 29 Upminster District Havering 12,867 53 61 73 90 110 138 Residual Residual Havering 58,821 123 143 171 210 258 323 Uxbridge Metropolitan Hillingdon 74,811 331 381 451 552 676 843 Eastcote District Hillingdon 6,019 19 22 25 31 37 47 Hayes District Hillingdon 12,246 45 52 61 75 93 118 Northwood District Hillingdon 2,965 15 18 21 26 31 39 Ruislip District Hillingdon 11,213 44 50 59 71 87 109 Yiewsley/West Drayton District Hillingdon 6,823 25 29 34 42 51 63 Residual Residual Hillingdon 91,872 245 281 331 406 501 633 Hounslow Metropolitan Hounslow 68,602 269 315 373 458 569 725 Chiswick Major Hounslow 22,286 165 193 228 280 338 416 Brentford District Hounslow 4,386 19 22 26 31 38 48 Feltham High Street District Hounslow 13,871 41 48 57 69 87 112 Residual Residual Hounslow 29,991 56 66 76 95 116 150 243 Modelled Expenditure (£m) Centre Name Classification Borough Floorspace (m²) 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Angel Major Islington 31,321 186 220 262 327 406 513 Nags Head Major Islington 27,746 107 125 147 182 226 286 Archway District Islington 7,100 29 33 39 48 58 72 Residual Residual Islington 12,496 58 67 79 97 120 151 Kensington High Street Major Kensington and Chelsea 54,373 257 309 375 467 573 713 Kings Road East Major Kensington and Chelsea 80,045 338 420 519 653 817 1,044 Fulham Road (east) District Kensington and Chelsea 15,974 117 140 169 210 258 323 Earls Court