Simulation of Circulation and Water Quality in Bellingham Bay TARANG KHANGAONKAR & TAIPING WANG Coastal Ocean Modeling Program, Marine Sciences Division State of Bellingham Bay Research Symposium, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 1/22/2015 March 6, 2015 1 Salish Sea Model – PNNL / Ecology / EPA Hydrodynamics and Water Quality Salish Sea Model (SSM) - Grid Surface salinity, 24-hr simulation Model Specifications April, 2006 Hydrodynamic Model Example FVCOM (Chen et al 2003) 3-D Baroclinic 10-layers, sigma coordinates Boundaries Strait of Juan de Fuca Strait of Georgia S, T, and Elevation Meteorology UW – WRF Model Hydrology River flows Watershed models Water Quality Model CE-QUAL-ICM / USACE FVCOM-ICM (Kim and Khangaonkar 2011) Nutrients, phytoplankton/algae, carbon, DO, …. 19 variables Benthic fluxes Boundary loads based on DFO monitoring data Point source loads (99)… Salish Sea Model (Khangaonkar et al. 2011, 2012) – http://pugetsound.pnnl.gov/ 2 Salish Sea Model application Effect of future hydrology & loads 10000 Puget Sound Inflow, m3/s Georgia Basin Inflow, m3/s Total Inflow, m3/s Future climate assessment (UW/CIG) 8000 GCM simulations of IPCC AR4 scenarios 6000 (B1, B2, A1B, B2, A1F1) downscaled VIC hydrologic model application (A1B) m3/s Flow, 4000 Periods 1915 - 2006 & 2010 - 2069 2000 Year 2070 ≈19% flow increase from 2006 0 Future nutrient pollution loads (Ecology) 2006 2007 2008 2020 2040 2070 Hydrologic analysis (Year 2070) Year Projected watershed use Projected population growth ≈100% increase of marine point source loads ≈ 40% increase in watershed loads • Hamlet et al. (2010), Lee and Hamlet (2013) • Mohamedali et al. (2013) - Nutrient Loads • Khangaonkar et al. 2012 - DO Model • Roberts et al. (2014) - Ecology report on model scenarios http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/wq/PugetSound/DOM odel.html 3 Salish Sea Model application Effect of projected sea level rise (SLR) [National Research Council. 2012. Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future] 4 Effect on estuarine exchange flow Inflow of ocean water to Salish Sea Exchange flow into Strait of Juan de Fuca - 2070 loads and 2070 SLR of 0.77 m Increase ≈ 4% Exchange flow into Puget Sound - 2070 loads and 2070 SLR of 0.77 m Increase ≈ 5% 5 Effect on salinity Bellingham Bay [0.77 m SLR + 2070 loads +2070 Ocean] 6 Future projections of DO and nitrate Pacific Ocean boundary Parameter 2020 2040 2070 Source Dissolved Oxygen -0.32 -0.78 -1.47 Pierce et al. (2012) and (-0.023 mg/L/yr) mg/L mg/L mg/L Whitney et al. (2007) Nitrate 0.02 0.05 0.09 Ecology analysis (0.00133 mg/L mg/L mg/L mg/L/yr) Temperature 0.14 °C 0.34 °C 0.64 °C Whitney et al. (2007) (0.01 °C/yr) Salinity* -0.05 -0.12 -0.23 Whitney et al. (2007) (-0.0036 PSU/yr) PSU PSU PSU [Roberts et al. 2014. Puget Sound and the Straits Dissolved Oxygen Assessment. Impacts of Current and Future Human Nitrogen Sources and Climate Change through 2070. Ecology Publication No. 14-03-007] 7 Effect on (NO3+NO2) Bellingham Bay [0.77 m SLR + 2070 loads +2070 Ocean] 8 Effect on DO Bellingham Bay [0.77 m SLR + 2070 loads +2070 Ocean] 9 Salish Sea Model application Flushing analysis Estimate of residence time Bellingham Bay e-folding flushing / residence test Day 1 ≈ 194 days Day 8 Day 194 March 6, 2015 10 High Resolution Bellingham Bay Model (Bellingham Bay Action Team) Simulation of Oceanographic Parameters in Bellingham Bay Improve understanding of fish migration pathways Oceanographic Data Collection Hart Crowser (August 2009) June 10 to June 26, 2009 Survey Data Nooksack Bathymetry Tidal Elevations (T1-T7) Currents (C1-C4) Temperature Salinity T-S profiles during deployment and recovery Bathymetry and cross sections near Nooksack River mouth March 6, 2015 11 Bellingham Bay Hydrodynamic Model - Fine scale grid Node = 19,301, Elements = 35,458, Nooksack tide flats – lidar data cell size = 20 m to 100 m Model calibration Tide Currents Station C3 - Surface Layer Station C3 - Surface Layer 1.2 1.2 Data Salinity 0.8 0.8 Model 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 Data East Velocity (m/s) Temperature -0.8 North Velocity(m/s) -0.8 Model -1.2 -1.2 6/10/09 6/14/09 6/18/09 6/22/09 6/26/09 6/10/09 6/14/09 6/18/09 6/22/09 6/26/09 Wang T, Yang Z, and T Khangaonkar. 2010. Development of a Hydrodynamic and Transport Model of Bellingham Bay in Support of March 6, 2015 13 Nearshore Habitat Restoration. PNNL-19347 Model Results – River Plume Animation Particle tracking fish migration / oil spill pathways Simulation using NOAA – GNOME Oil Spill Modeling Environment March 6, 2015 15 Summary / Discussion Salish Sea Model (SSM) / Bellingham Bay Sub-basin Existing scenarios - 2006, 2007, and 2008 Future SLR and climate scenarios - Y2020, Y2040, Y2070 Bellingham Bay Model (BHM)– high resolution model (2009) Intertidal hydrodynamics Oil spill / particle tracking tool Characterization of influence of Fraser River … Accurate computation of residence / flushing time … Fish like particle / larvae tracking … Other research applications development needs … Local effects of nutrients and sediment loads Sediment diagenesis effects pH / ocean acidification impacts Submerged aquatic vegetation / eel grass March 6, 2015 16.