Dumfries & Galloway Council Community Planning Partnership Report December 2015 Initial School Leaver Destination 2014/15 National Training Programme Results Q2 2015/16 Unemployed Seeking Analysis Contents Foreword 4 Report Section 1: Initial School Leaver Destinations 2014/15 5 Background 5 School Leaver Definitions 5 Differences in reporting methodology 5 Analysis 6 Section 1: Overview – Main Findings 6 Section 1.1 - Annual Trends 7 Table 1: Year on Year destination percentage split. Local Authority & Scotland 7 Graph 2: Local Authority Comparison to Scotland 7 Table 3: Year on Year Destination Split 8 Graph 4: Year on Year Positive/Other Destination Trend 8 Graph 5: Year on Year Positive Destination Trend Analysis 9 Graph 6: Year on Year Other Destination Trend Analysis 10 Section 1.2: Leaver Characteristics 11 Table 7: Destinations Split By Gender 11 Graph 8: Gender split within each destination 11 Table 9: Percentage Destinations by SIMD 2012 12 Graph 10: Percentage Positive, HE and Unemployed Seeking by SIMD 2012 12 Table 11: School Leavers by Stage of Leaving 13 Section 2: Positive Destinations 14 Section 2.1 Higher and Further Education 14 Table 12: HE by Institution Type 14 Table 13: HE Students by Institution 14 Table 14: HE Students by FE Colleges 15 Table 15: FE Students by FE Colleges 15 Section 2.2: Employment 16 Table 16: Top Occupational Areas 16 Dumfries & Galloway Council Community Planning Partnership Report (Dec 2015) 2 of 29 Table 17: Top Occupational Areas (Male only) 16 Table 18: Top Occupational Areas (Female only) 17 Graph 19: Occupational Areas split by Gender 17 Section 3: Other Destinations 19 Table 20: Unemployed Seeking Leaver Characteristics 19 Table 21: Unemployed Seeking Leavers by Intermediate Data zone 20 Graph 22: Individual Circumstances of those Unemployed NOT Seeking 21 Section 4: Percentage Destinations by School 22 Report Section 2: National Training Programme Results Apr-Sep 2015 24 Report Section 3: Characteristics of 16 – 19 Unemployed Seeking 24 Unemployed Table 1: Unemployed Seeking, by gender & age 24 Unemployed Table 3: Unemployed Seeking, by age & duration since last positive status 25 Unemployed Table 4: Unemployed Seeking by SIMD 2012 Ranking 25 Unemployed Table 5: Unemployed Seeking by Intermediate Datazone 26 Background Notes 27 Initial Leaver Destination Report (Analysis note) Please note that information regarding institutions and employment sectors have been suppressed where there are less than 5 leavers. In these instances, these leavers have been captured under the ‘other’ categories. In addition, due to rounding techniques some total percentages may not equal 100%. Dumfries & Galloway Council Community Planning Partnership Report (Dec 2015) 3 of 29 Foreword Welcome to the December 2015 Community Planning Partnership Report providing you and your other local partners, with analysis of key information specific to your Community Planning Partnership area. This includes: - Initial School Leaver Destinations - 2014-15 - Links to the most recently published National Training Programme participation and outcomes (Q2 2015-16) - Analysis of those with a status of Unemployed seeking (as at 1st December 2015) We hope this analysis will be useful in helping to inform your planning in support of your youth employment strategies and wider Community Planning Partnership outcomes. As you may be aware, the first annual Participation Measure report was published by SDS in August. This report, and its accompanying data tables, covers all 16-19 year olds and may provide you with additional information of value at a local and national level. We are committed to working in partnership and sharing information that supports our joint work to secure the best opportunities for people in your area. We’d be delighted to receive your feedback on this report and suggestions for future reports at [email protected]. Damien Yeates Chief Executive, Skills Development Scotland Dumfries & Galloway Council Community Planning Partnership Report (Dec 2015) 4 of 29 Report Section 1: Initial School Leaver Destinations 2014/15 Background In August 2015, Skills Development Scotland (SDS) published the first participation measure for 16 – 19 year olds in Scotland, a publication identified as ‘experimental statistics - data being developed’. The measure reports on the learning, training and work activity of 16-19 year olds in Scotland. As part of the development work for the participation measure it was agreed SDS would continue to supply school leaver destination data to the Scottish Government’s Education Analysis Unit (SGEAS) for their annual national statistics publication and to update Insighti, the online benchmarking tool for Scottish local authorities and secondary schools. The statistical extracts for both the participation measure and the destination of school leavers are taken from the shared data set held by SDS on our customer support system (CSS). Multi-partner data sharing and direct input by SDS staff are the key components of creating and maintaining this shared dataset. The status information has been gathered through the use of shared administrative data from local authorities, colleges, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), Student Awards Agency for Scotland (SAAS) and the SDS Corporate Training System combined with direct follow up of 16-19 year old customers by SDS staff. Given the increased reliance on shared data, in 2015 SDS moved to an ongoing case management approach to following up school leavers in place of the traditional telephone survey method of establishing pupil destinations. Within the context of Opportunities for All, the follow up of 16-19 year olds, including school leavers, is an integral part of our approach to managing customers from school through their initial and subsequent transitions. Given the greater focus on all 16-19 year olds, the practice of following up leavers at two specific points within the year has been replaced by ongoing follow up throughout the year. Although this is a change in the follow- up process, the results remain comparable with previous years. School Leaver Definitions The 2014/15 cohort includes leavers from publicly funded secondary schools who left school between 1st August 2014 and 15th September 2015. These dates will be used on a one–off basis only. In the future the school leaver cohort will be based on leavers who left school between the third Wednesday of September and the third Tuesday in September the following year. This report is based on status information held on the shared dataset. Statuses are updated on the shared dataset on an ongoing basis and the status used within the destination snapshot is from the first Monday in October (5th October 2015). Differences in reporting methodology In 2014, SGEAS introduced a new definition to report on school leavers within Insight and their national statistics publication. Following consultation with the users of our publications, it was agreed we would continue to use the same reporting methodology as used in our previous publications. It is this methodology, based on the follow up leaver extract, which is used by Scotland Performs to report on the national indicator - “Increase Dumfries & Galloway Council Community Planning Partnership Report (Dec 2015) 5 of 29 the proportion of young people in learning, training or work”. The current national indicator reports on leavers from publicly funded secondary schools. Further information can be found in the Background Notes. Analysis The analysis that follows is based on data recorded about leavers from the shared data set held on the SDS customer support system (CSS). Leavers that were identified as having moved out with Scotland are excluded. This report relates to the 1,603 leavers from publicly funded secondary schools in Dumfries & Galloway Council. Section 1: Overview – Main Findings Overall the percentage of leavers entering a positive destinationii is 93.0%, a rise of 2.0 percentage points (pp)iii in comparison to 2013/14. This is 0.1pp above the national average of 92.9%. Dumfries & Galloway Council is 21st out of 32 local authorities for the percentage of leavers entering a positive destination. The percentage of leavers entering higher education (HE) is 37.0% which is 1.3pp lower than the national average of 38.3%. In comparison to 2013/14 this is a rise within the authority of 0.6pp. The percentage of leavers entering further education (FE) has risen by 4.7pp to 30.1% which is 2.3pp higher than the national average of 27.8%. The percentage of leavers entering employment has fallen by 2.5pp since 2013/14 to 22.2%. This percentage is 0.5pp above the national average of 21.7%. The percentage of leavers entering training has fallen by 1.3pp to 2.2% and is 1.6pp below the national average (3.8%). The percentage of leavers who are unemployed seekingiv is 4.7%, 2.4pp lower than in 2013/14. This is 0.7pp lower than the national average (5.4%) and is 10th lowest percentage of leavers reported as unemployed seeking in Scotland this year. School leavers whose destination is unconfirmedv is 1.2% this year. This is 0.8pp higher than last year and is 0.7pp higher the national average of 0.5%. Dumfries & Galloway Council Community Planning Partnership Report (Dec 2015) 6 of 29 Section 1.1 - Annual Trends The tables and graphs that follow provide information about school leaver destinations over time. Table 1 makes a direct comparison with last year and complements the main findings above whilst the remainder of