PRISM About VOL. 5, NO. 4 PRISM is published by the Center for Complex Operations. PRISM is a security studies journal chartered to inform members of U.S. Federal agencies, allies, and other partners on complex EDITOR and integrated national security operations; reconstruction and state-building; relevant policy Michael Miklaucic and strategy; lessons learned; and developments in training and education to transform America’s security and development DEPUTY EDITOR Jacqueline Page ASSOCIATE EDITOR Communications Jeffrey Listerman Constructive comments and contributions are important to us. Direct communications to: EDITORIAL ASSISTANTS Garrett Dodd Editor, PRISM Samantha Fletcher 260 Fifth Avenue (Building 64, Room 3605) Riley Perkins Fort Lesley J. McNair Cherish Zinn Washington, DC 20319 Telephone: COPY EDITORS (202) 685-3442 Dale Erickson FAX: Rebecca Harper (202) 685-3581 Christoff Luehrs Email: [email protected] DESIGN DIRECTOR Carib Mendez Contributions ADVISORY BOARD PRISM welcomes submission of scholarly, independent research from security policymakers Dr. Gordon Adams and shapers, security analysts, academic specialists, and civilians from the United States and Dr. Pauline Baker abroad. Submit articles for consideration to the address above or by email to [email protected] Ambassador Rick Barton with “Attention Submissions Editor” in the subject line. Dr. Alain Bauer Dr. Hans Binnendijk Dr. Joseph J. Collins (ex officio) This is the authoritative, official U.S. Department of Defense edition of PRISM. Ambassador James Dobbins Any copyrighted portions of this journal may not be reproduced or extracted Ambassador John Herbst without permission of the copyright proprietors. PRISM should be acknowledged whenever material is quoted from or based on its content. Dr. David Kilcullen Ambassador Jacques Paul Klein The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are Dr. Roger B. Myerson those of the contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department Dr. Moises Naim of Defense or any other agency of the Federal Government. MG William L. Nash, USA (Ret.) Ambassador Thomas Pickering Dr. William Reno LtGen John F. Sattler, USMC (Ret.) Dr. James A. Schear Dr. Joanna Spear Dr. Ruth Wedgwood PUBLISHER Cover art: Presencia de America Latina, by Jorge Gonzalez Camerena. It is located in Dr. Joseph J. Collins the Casa del Arte of the University of Concepcion in Concepcion, Chile. ISSN 2157–0663 FEATURES 2 Colombia Back from the Brink: From Failed State to Exporter of Security By Juan Carlos Pinzón 10 Alliance for Prosperity in the Northern Triangle: A Leap Towards Ensuring Regional Security www.ndu.edu By Juan Orlando Hernández ndupress.ndu.edu 20 Change and Adaptation: Changes in the Western Hemisphere and Beyond By Vicente Fox 26 De-Militarizing Civilian Security in Mexico and the Northern Triangle By Tom Malinowski and Charles O. Blaha 34 A Critical Juncture for Security and Human Rights By Leana D. Bresnahan 48 Insecurity and Development in Latin America and the Caribbean By Inés Bustillo and Halvia Velloso 68 United States policy in the Hemisphere: Influencing the State and Beyond By Frank O. Mora and Brian Fonesca 88 After the Negotiations: How Reconstruction Teams Can Build a Stronger Peace in Colombia By Agustin E. Dominguez 100 Russia in Latin America: A Strategic Analysis By Douglas Farah and Liana Eustacia Reyes 118 Iranian and Hezbollah Operation in South America: Then and Now By Matthew Levitt 134 Transnational Organized Crime: An Insidious Threat to US National Security Interests By Renee Novakoff 150 Illicit Networks: Rethinking the Systemic Risk in Latin America By Ivan Briscoe and Pamela Kalkman 172 The Rise of Militias in Mexico: Citizens’ Security or Further Conflict Escalation? By Vanda Felbab-Brown 188 The Evolving Transnational Crime-Terrorism Nexus in Peru and its Strategic Relevance for the U.S. and the Region By R. Evan Ellis INTERVIEW 206 An Interview with General John Kelly AUTHOR Alexander Garcia, www.fuerzasmilitares.org Troops of the Colombian National Army’s Second Infantry Brigade supply water to victims of heavy rain. These individuals lost their homes and were housed in temporary shelters. 2 | FEATURES PRISM 4, NO. 1 Colombia Back from the Brink From Failed State to Exporter of Security BY JUAN CARLOS PINZÓN or most of the world, the decade of the 1990’s came to a close with Europe agreeing on a single currency, the movie Titanic earning the distinction of being the most financially F successful picture in history, and the world holding its breath for the predicted chaos that would supposedly be brought on by the Y2K bug. For Colombia, the 1990’s were marked by mounting violence, as the government struggled to protect rural communities from ever increasing attacks by armed insurgents and drug traffick- ers. Some even considered the country on the verge of becoming a failed state; the economy was foundering, foreign investment had declined sharply, and security had deteriorated to the point where the majority of Colombians did not feel safe.1 In fact, they felt like hostages in their own homes. The security environment was one of constant anguish due to the terrorist bombing campaign initiated by the drug cartels and continued by Colombia’s various armed Marxist insur- gent groups.2 Colombians, who are proudly individualistic, resolute, and courageous, began to say “nunca mas” (never again), and their government listened and acted. Between 1999 and 2006, the first “transformation” of the Colombian Public Forces (the Armed Forces and the National Police) took place.3 The overhaul included intense training, revised military doctrine and campaign strategies, and increased capability and capacity. International cooperation and the recognition of shared responsibility to confront this countrywide threat were crucial in generating the needed jumpstart. Every president since 1982 has attempted some sort of peace accord with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (the Spanish acronym is FARC). After the 2002 election and at the end of another failed peace process with the FARC – that demilitarized an area of land the size of Switzerland, granting the FARC a safe haven as a gesture of good will during that negotiation period – the Colombian electorate clamored for the government to go on the offensive. The FARC leadership’s lack of good faith, especially notable during the negotiation process between the Juan Carlos Pinzón is the Ambassador of Colombia to the United States. He served as Colombia’s Minister of Defense, 2011-2015. PRISM 5, NO. 4 FEATURES | 3 PINZÓN years 1998 and 2002, led to a public loss of the gradual, systematic, and sustained recovery faith in the peace negotiations. Colombia had of territorial control. They also launched an to adopt a new strategy to confront the con- extensive interdiction campaign against drug flict: first, the Colombian government devel- trafficking, as well as economic revitalization oped measures to regain the strategic initiative efforts that began to rebuild the trust of against these insurgent groups; second, it Colombian citizens in their Public Forces developed options and implemented a plan to across the country. bring the conflict to a close and consolidate After taking the offensive initiative and security across the nation; and finally, it for- establishing minimal state presence, FARC, the mulated an approach to transform the forces National Liberation Army (ELN), and the to face future security challenges. United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) terrorist organizations went from being Charting a Path to a New Colombia a nationwide threat to citizens and state sover- In the latter half of the 1990s, the guerrillas eignty across 1,141,748 square kilometers of were capable of conducting multi-battalion national territory, to isolated terrorist cells on size conventional set piece battles, and con- the defensive in the most remote rural areas of trolled large swaths of coca crop growing areas the nation. and drug routes, where they forced the dis- As security continued to improve and as placement of entire towns and plundered civil- the government expanded social services to ians’ property and assets. outlying areas of the country, the illegal armed By the end of the 1990s, President Andrés groups lost the ability to execute larger-scale Pastrana and his administration designed a operations. Now, the guerilla structures were multilayer strategy to address, in a comprehen- forced to withdraw to their traditional base sive way, the security challenges the country areas and scale down their tactics to harass- was confronting. Plan Colombia became an ment of security forces and attacks on eco- effort to strengthen the armed forces and con- nomic infrastructure, as well as seeking new front the drugs trade in a way that enabled the illegal sources of income. state to enlarge its presence in an integrated Most importantly, because of stronger, manner to restore territorial control and modernized, and professional Armed Forces, enhance the rule of law. The U.S. partnered Colombians gradually got their country back. with Colombia in this endeavor in a way that For the first time in years, Colombians were facilitated air mobility, special operations able to move freely between cities and towns. training, intelligence capabilities, professional With this recovered freedom came the reversal standards on human rights, and resources for of the 1990s “brain drain,” as both seasoned rapid response for projects in critical areas. The and skilled Colombian entrepreneurs, along support became bipartisan and sustained, and, with young energetic and resolute Colombians, despite limited resources, the impact became came home. Another positive consequence of substantial. these initial successes was an increase in for- In 2002, the new Colombian administra- eign investment and a more positive credit rat- tion under President Alvaro Uribe initiated a ing. series of offensive military actions that led to 4 | FEATURES PRISM 5, NO. 4 COLOMBIA BACK FROM THE BRINK To fund the security effort, extraordinary decisive offensive engagements at the time and appropriations were garnered through special place of their choosing.