CHINA’S 40 YEARS OF REFORM AND DEVELOPMENT 1978–2018 Other titles in the China Update Book Series include: 1999 China: Twenty Years of Economic Reform 2002 China: WTO Entry and World Recession 2003 China: New Engine of World Growth 2004 China: Is Rapid Growth Sustainable? 2005 The China Boom and its Discontents 2006 China: The Turning Point in China’s Economic Development 2007 China: Linking Markets for Growth 2008 China’s Dilemma: Economic Growth, the Environment and Climate Change 2009 China’s New Place in a World of Crisis 2010 China: The Next Twenty Years of Reform and Development 2011 Rising China: Global Challenges and Opportunities 2012 Rebalancing and Sustaining Growth in China 2013 China: A New Model for Growth and Development 2014 Deepening Reform for China’s Long-Term Growth and Development 2015 China’s Domestic Transformation in a Global Context 2016 China’s New Sources of Economic Growth: Vol. 1 2017 China’s New Sources of Economic Growth: Vol. 2 The titles are available online at press.anu.edu.au/publications/series/china-update-series CHINA’S 40 YEARS OF REFORM AND DEVELOPMENT 1978–2018 Edited by Ross Garnaut, Ligang Song and Cai Fang SOCIAL SCIENCES ACADEMIC PRESS (CHINA) Published by ANU Press The Australian National University Acton ACT 2601, Australia Email: [email protected] Available to download for free at press.anu.edu.au ISBN (print): 9781760462246 ISBN (online): 9781760462253 WorldCat (print): 1042816554 WorldCat (online): 1042816575 DOI: 10.22459/CYRD.07.2018 This title is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). The full licence terms are available at creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode Cover design and layout by ANU Press This edition © 2018 ANU Press Contents Figures ........................................................ix Tables .........................................................xv Contributors ...................................................xix Acknowledgements .............................................xxi Abbreviations ..................................................xxiii Introduction ....................................................1 1. 40 years of China’s reform and development: How reform captured China’s demographic dividend ..................................5 Cai Fang, Ross Garnaut and Ligang Song Part I: The Chinese economic transformation 2. 40 years of Chinese economic reform and development and the challenge of 50 ......................................29 Ross Garnaut 3. Reflections on 40 years of China’s reforms. .53 Bert Hofman 4. GDP and the new concept of development: Understanding China’s changing concept of development in regards to GDP after the reform and opening-up ............................................67 Wei Liu 5. The political economy causes of China’s economic success ...........75 Yang Yao 6. China’s economic transformation ...............................93 Gregory C. Chow 7. Reform and development strategy .............................117 Justin Yifu Lin and Zhongkai Shen 8. The complex task of evaluating China’s economic reforms ...........135 Dwight H. Perkins 9. Decentralisation, local innovation and competition among cities .......155 David Dollar Part II: Macroeconomic development and structural adjustments 10. China’s macroeconomics in the 40 years of reform. 167 Xiaolu Wang 11. China’s economic rebalancing: Drivers, outlook and the role of reform ..187 Guonan Ma, Ivan Roberts and Gerard Kelly 12. China’s price liberalisation and market reform: A historical perspective ...215 Zhang Jun 13. How has the Chinese economy capitalised on the demographic dividend during the reform period?. 235 Cai Fang 14. Marketisation in China from 1997 to 2014: Achievements and contribution to growth ......................................257 Fan Gang, Guangrong Ma and Xiaolu Wang 15. An update on fiscal reform ...................................271 Christine Wong 16. ‘Strong on quantity, weak on quality’: China’s financial reform between 1978 and 2018 ....................................291 Yiping Huang and Xun Wang 17. The reform of China’s exchange rate regime. .313 Yongding Yu 18. Private sector development ..................................329 Nicholas Lardy 19. State-owned enterprise reform in China: Past, present and prospects ...345 Ligang Song 20. State enterprise reform today. 375 Barry Naughton Part III: The development experiences 21. Rural-to-urban migration and migrants’ labour market performance, 2008–16 .................................................395 Bob Gregory and Xin Meng 22. The structure of and changes to China’s land system ...............427 Shouying Liu 23. New urbanisation in China: A multidimensional perspective— Empirical analysis of 289 prefecture and higher-level cities ...........455 Biliang Hu and Kunling Zhang 24. China’s 40 years of agricultural development and reform ............487 Jikun Huang and Scott Rozelle Part IV: Energy and climate change 25. Energy price reform in China. 509 ZhongXiang Zhang 26. The evolution and transformation of China’s climate change response strategy: From preventing ‘black swan’ events to reducing ‘grey rhino’ risks ....................................525 Jiahua Pan Part V: Trade, investment and global integration 27. China and the global trading system: Then and now ...............545 Peter Drysdale and Samuel Hardwick 28. China’s foreign trade: Reform, performance and contribution to economic growth ........................................575 Kunwang Li and Wei Jiang 29. The liberalisation of FDI policies and the impacts of FDI on China’s economic development .....................................595 Chunlai Chen 30. Outward direct investment: Restricted, relaxed and regulated stages of development ...........................................619 Bijun Wang and Kailin Gao 31. A US perspective on China’s external economic disputes in the past 40 years and in the coming 40 years ...........................637 Wing Thye Woo Index .......................................................659 Figures Figure 1.1 China’s GDP (LHS) and growth rate (RHS), 1978–2017 ..........7 Figure 1.2 China’s GDP per capita (LHS) and growth rate (RHS), 1978–2017 ..7 Figure 1.3 China’s poverty population (hundred million), 1978–2017 ........12 Figure 1.4 China’s export share of GDP, 1978–2017 .....................14 Figure 1.5 Changing trend of age structure and population window of opportunity. .15 Figure 1.6 China’s GDP growth decomposition, 1978–2017 ...............16 Figure 1.7 Contribution of consumption, investment and exports to China’s GDP growth, 1978–2017 .....................................19 Figure 1.8 China’s consumption and investment share of GDP, 1978–2017 ....19 Figure 3.1 China’s economic development, 1978–2016 ...................55 Figure 3.2 Phases of reform ........................................62 Figure 5.1 Political structure and the autonomous government .............82 Figure 7.1 China’s score on the Corruption Perceptions Index, 1996–2016 ...119 Figure 7.2 Corruption Perceptions Index scores of 176 countries/territories in 2016 ..................................................119 Figure 7.3 China’s GDP growth rate, 2001–16 (constant 2010 US$) ........127 Figure 7.4 GDP growth rates of high-income countries, 2010–16 (constant 2010 US$) ........................................129 Figure 7.5 GDP growth rate in BRIC countries and Turkey, 2010–16 (constant 2010 US$) ........................................130 Figure 7.6 GDP growth rate in high-performance export-oriented countries, 2010–16 (constant 2010 US$). 130 Figure 11.1 Aggregate demand and the current account: Share of nominal GDP. 190 Figure 11.2 Saving and investment by sector: Flow of funds, share of GDP ...191 Figure 11.3 Household and nonhousehold expenditure: Flow of funds, share of GDP. .192 Figure 11.4 Income by sector: Flow of funds, share of gross domestic income . 194 Figure 11.5 Household sector—actual and adjusted: Share of GDP .........195 ix China’s 40 Years of Reform and Development: 1978–2018 Figure 11.6 Household disposable income: Share of GDP ................196 Figure 11.7 International comparison of expenditure composition: Share of gross national expenditure, 2001–11, cumulative ............197 Figure 11.8 International comparison of consumption and investment growth: Maximum 20-year annualised rate .......................198 Figure 11.9 Residential investment: Share of nominal GDP ...............200 Figure 11.10 Saving, investment and leverage: Share of nominal GDP .......201 Figure 11.11 Components of the return to capital ......................204 Figure 11.12 Return to capital and corporate borrowing cost ..............205 Figure 13.1 Birth rate, death rate and natural growth rate of population in China .................................................241 Figure 13.2 Expansion and composition of nonagricultural employment .....246 Figure 14.1 Average marketisation index score, 1997–2014 ...............260 Figure 14.2 NERI index for progress in marketisation in Chinese provinces ...261 Figure 14.3 Standard deviation of marketisation index, 1997–2014 .........262 Figure 14.4. Scores for the five aspects of marketisation, 1997–2014 ........262 Figure 16.1 Incremental capital–output ratio in China, 1985–2016 .........302 Figure 16.2 Composition of nonfinancial leverages, 2014 (percentage of GDP) ........................................303 Figure 16.3 Index of China’s systemic financial risk, 2007–17 .............304 Figure