Awash River Basin Flood and Drought Management Strategic Plan June 2017 i List of Abbreviation AWBA Awash Basin Authority BHC The Basin High Council DAP Detail Action Plan DEM Digital Elevation Model EBY Ethiopian Budget Year ELWRC Ethiopia Land and Water Resource Center EPCO Electricity Power Corporation EWPC Early Warning Protection Commission FDPPC Federal Disaster Protection and Preparedness Commission GDP Growth Development Program GTP Growth and Transformation Plan Ha Hectare IWRM Integrated Water Resource Management M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MoANR Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resource MoEFCC Ministry of Environmental, Forest and climate change MoH Ministry of Health MoI Ministry of Industry MoLSFD Ministry of Livestock and Fishery Development MoWIE Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy MoWIE Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy NMA National Meteorology Agency RAB Regional Agricultural bureaus RWB Regional Water Bureau UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change i Table of Contents Executive Summary....................................................................................................................... vi List of Figures................................................................................................................................. v List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. iv List of Abbreviation......................................................................................................................... i 1. Background.............................................................................................................................. 1 1.1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Vision ............................................................................................................................... 3 1.3. Goal .................................................................................................................................. 3 1.4. Objective .......................................................................................................................... 3 1.5. Scope of the plan.............................................................................................................. 3 2. Situation Analysis.................................................................................................................... 4 2.1. Legal Framework ............................................................................................................. 4 2.2. Institutional Framework ................................................................................................... 5 2.3. Significant Pressures ........................................................................................................ 6 2.3.1. Social Pressures ............................................................................................................ 7 2.2.2. Economic Pressures...................................................................................................... 9 2.2.3. Environmental Pressures .............................................................................................. 9 3. Scenario Analysis .................................................................................................................. 12 3.1. Current scenario ............................................................................................................. 12 3.2. Future Scenario .............................................................................................................. 18 4. Goals, objectives and measures ............................................................................................. 21 5. Measure – Target – Evaluation Criteria ................................................................................ 22 6. Detail Action Plan ................................................................................................................. 23 7. Financial Plan Summary........................................................................................................ 24 ii 7.1. Cost estimates by measure for 6 planning areas (2010 – 2012)..................................... 24 7.2. Cost estimates by measure for 6 planning areas (2013 – 2017)..................................... 25 7.3. Cost estimates by measure for 6 planning areas (2010 – 2017)..................................... 26 7.4. Cost summary per planning area.................................................................................... 27 8. Risk management .................................................................................................................. 28 8.1. Planning assumption ...................................................................................................... 28 8.2. Expected challenges ....................................................................................................... 28 8.3. Possible solution............................................................................................................. 28 9. Monitoring and Evaluation Mechanisms............................................................................... 29 iii List of Tables Table 1. Legal framework context matrix for flood and drought management.............................. 5 Table 2 Flood hazard level and coverage in Awash River Basin (Source: Getahun and Gebre, 2015) ....................................................................................................................................................... 14 Table 3 Description of flood and drought at planning areas......................................................... 17 Table 4 Analysis of Measure – Target – Evaluation Criteria ....................................................... 23 Table 5.Basin plan monitoring framework ................................................................................... 30 Table 6. River basin plan monitoring methods............................................................................. 31 iv List of Figures Figure 1. Map of Awash River Basin (AwBA 2017 E.C) .............................................................. 1 Figure 2 Population density map of Awash River Basin (AwBA, 2015)....................................... 8 Figure 3 Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of Awash River Basin (AwBA, 2015) ....................... 10 Figure 4 Geomorphology of Awash River Basin (AwBA, 2013) ................................................ 11 Figure 5. Flood vulnerability map of Awash River Basin ............................................................ 13 Figure 6 Geo-susceptibility map of Awash River......................................................................... 14 Figure 7. Extreme and mild drought occurrence overview of Awash River Basin (Shishay, 2016) ....................................................................................................................................................... 15 Figure 8. Long term annual rainfall trends of Addis Ababa, Akaki, Debresina and Debrezeit (AwBA,2013)................................................................................................................................ 18 Figure 9. Long term annual temperature trends of Upper, Middle, North and East of Awash River Basin (AwBA, 2013) .................................................................................................................... 20 Figure 10. Objective tree - logical connection among goals, objectives and measures................ 22 v Executive Summary Flood & drought are the most common forms of natural disaster that disrupt human activities, cause loss of human lives & destroy properties. There are just two types of flood in general, namely, the floods that caused by extreme excess of precipitation on the catchment that contributed to the flood in the main and tributaries of the river, and floods owing to unexpected release of an excess amount of water from storage or dam. The flood in Awash River basin is due to the excess precipitation that occurred in the highland of the basin, and finally generates high flood on the downstream part of the basin. The basin originates from the highlands at above 3000masl receiving 2000mm of rainfall. The land use of the basin is characterized by extensive land use for agriculture, combined with urbanization and industrialization, is aggravating the generation of runoff. The ba- sin is currently inhabited by 18 million people (growing at 2.9%) and supports 34 million livestock population putting immense pressure on the natural resource base. These factors contribute to se- vere land degradation, erosion, flooding and sedimentation. For example, the flood episode at Dire Dawa in 2006 that caused loss of lives and properties, and the frequent flood hazards at Amibara, Gewane, Logiya and Asaita are some of flood events in the basin. Drought, as a recurrent phenomenon in the Awash Basin, had the most devastating effects in 1974 and 1984 that caused loss of human and livestock population. Droughts are caused due to the absence of rain, & thus grow & retreat in severity at rates measured by normal precipitation in an area. In general, there are four categories of drought, namely: meteorological, agricultural, hydro- logical & social-economic drought. Drought in Awash River