CPB Corporate Partnership Board Shared Mobility Simulations for Auckland Case-Specific Policy Analysis Shared Mobility Simulations for Auckland Case-Specific Policy Analysis The International Transport Forum The International Transport Forum is an intergovernmental organisation with 59 member countries. It acts as a think tank for transport policy and organises the Annual Summit of transport ministers. ITF is the only global body that covers all transport modes. The ITF is politically autonomous and administratively integrated with the OECD. The ITF works for transport policies that improve peoples’ lives. Our mission is to foster a deeper understanding of the role of transport in economic growth, environmental sustainability and social inclusion and to raise the public profile of transport policy. The ITF organises global dialogue for better transport. We act as a platform for discussion and pre-negotiation of policy issues across all transport modes. We analyse trends, share knowledge and promote exchange among transport decision-makers and civil society. The ITF’s Annual Summit is the world’s largest gathering of transport ministers and the leading global platform for dialogue on transport policy. The Members of the ITF are: Albania, Armenia, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China (People’s Republic of), Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, India, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Korea, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Mexico, Republic of Moldova, Montenegro, Morocco, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the United States. International Transport Forum 2, rue André Pascal F-75775 Paris Cedex 16 [email protected] www.itf-oecd.org Case-Specific Policy Analysis Reports The ITF’s Case-Specific Policy Analysis series presents topical studies on specific issues carried out by the ITF in agreement with local institutions. This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the ITF. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of ITF or OECD member countries. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS – 3 Acknowledgements This report is part of an ongoing series of studies at the International Transport Forum on shared mobility in different urban and metropolitan contexts. Funding for this specific project was provided by the Ministry of Transport. The local project group was led by David Ryan (the New Zealand Ministry of Transport) and included John Davies (Auckland Transport), Tim Herbert and Joanne Leung (the New Zealand Ministry of Transport). The principal authors of this report were Olga Petrik and Luis Martinez (technical supervision), with support from Francisco Furtado of the International Transport Forum. The project was supervised by Jari Kauppila. The authors thank Philippe Crist for providing valuable comments and Liv Gudmundson for copy-editing the manuscript. The authors also thank Walid Oueslati and Ioannis Tikoudis from the OECD Environment Directorate for their comments. SHARED MOBILITY SIMULATIONS FOR AUCKLAND — © OECD/ITF 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS – 5 Table of contents Executive summary ....................................................................................................................................... 6 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 9 Modelling framework and shared modes specification............................................................................ 11 Project outline ............................................................................................................................................ 11 ITF shared mobility simulation model ....................................................................................................... 12 Shared modes specification ....................................................................................................................... 14 Characterisation of the study area ............................................................................................................. 17 Modelling current travel demand .............................................................................................................. 21 Model inputs .............................................................................................................................................. 22 Mode choice model results ........................................................................................................................ 24 Synthetic population generation ................................................................................................................ 25 Modelling transport supply and demand in 2046 ..................................................................................... 31 Potential users of shared mobility .............................................................................................................. 37 Design of the focus group meetings........................................................................................................... 37 Results of the discussion ............................................................................................................................ 38 Stated preference survey ............................................................................................................................ 40 Conclusions and implications of the focus group analysis ........................................................................ 47 Setting the shared mobility scenarios ........................................................................................................ 49 Impact of shared mobility ........................................................................................................................... 57 Results for the present case ........................................................................................................................ 57 Results for the year 2046 ........................................................................................................................... 90 Key findings and further research ............................................................................................................. 97 References .................................................................................................................................................... 99 Annex 1. Example of a stated preference survey question ................................................................ 102 Annex 2. Characteristics of the two respondents groups .................................................................. 103 Annex 3. Attitudes towards the shared modes and their attributes of the two respondents groups ............................................................................................................... 106 Annex 4. Calculation of the CO2 emissions ......................................................................................... 110 Annex 5. Effective access ...................................................................................................................... 111 Annex 6. Inputs for estimation of the costs ......................................................................................... 112 SHARED MOBILITY SIMULATIONS FOR AUCKLAND — © OECD/ITF 2017 6 – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive summary What we did Shared mobility refers to optimised transport services that are not individually owned but shared among users. Previous ITF studies have shown that shared mobility services can provide citizens with more flexible, comfortable and easily available alternatives to traditional public transport and encourage the shift from private car use to more sustainable forms of transport. This report explores how the deployment of shared mobility services could change mobility in Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city. The study is based on a simulation model of the more than 4.5 million trips undertaken on an average weekday by 1.3 million inhabitants in the most densely populated part of Auckland region (46% of the area and 90% of the population). The data used in the simulation was provided by New Zealand’s Ministry of Transport, Auckland Transport and the Auckland Forecasting Centre. The model was used to simulate different scenarios in which shared mobility services replaced other forms of travel. The impact of introducing shared mobility was tested using different configurations of these services: Shared Taxis with up to six passengers that provide an on-demand door-to-door service and Taxi-Busses with 8 to 16 seats that offer a street-corner-to-street-corner service and must be booked 30 minutes in advance. In the model, transport supply and demand are matched while detour distances and travel times are minimised. This report provides in-depth analysis for three out of ten scenarios tested for the present (2013 data) and the future (2046). The tested scenarios do not intend to provide an optimal configuration or suggest a pathway to implementation. These scenarios aim