HNTB Corporation 2900 S Quincy St Telephone (703) 824-5100 Engineers Architects Planners Suite 600 Facsimile (703) 671-6210 Arlington, VA 22206 www.hntb.com Theresa L. Samosiuk, P.E., C.M. Senior Project Manager Planning, Design and Construction Wayne County Airport Authority Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport 11050 Rogell Drive, Bldg #602 Detroit, MI 48242 01/16/2018 Noise Modeling Technical Memorandum for the Runway 3L-21R Reconstruction at Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport HNTB was tasked to assist the Wayne County Airport Authority (WCAA) in preparing technical analyses to support the development of a Documented Categorical Exclusion (CatEx) by Synergy Consultants, Inc. This technical memo evaluates the potential temporary noise impacts related to the reconstruction of Runway 3L-21R at Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport (DTW). The runway reconstruction is scheduled to take place during the 2019 construction season. The Future Scenario representing construction year activity was based on projected 2020 activity levels to take advantage of forecast analyses previously prepared for the Master Plan Update (MPU). As such, it is conservative since it slightly overestimates the noise and air quality impacts. This technical report documents the development of the Existing Condition (2017) and Future Scenario (2020) noise contours included in the CatEx submission. 1 Fleet Mix Forecast Fleet mixes, including aircraft types, number and hour of operations, and flight distance, are one of the major components of modeling noise in the vicinity of an airport. This section describes the available forecasts, data sources, assumptions, and methodologies applied in the fleet mix development. 1.1 Available Forecasts There are several national and local forecasts available for DTW. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) publishes the Terminal Area Forecast (TAF)i annually which includes enplanements and operations forecasts for DTW. Locally, the WCAA completed a Master Plan Updateii in July 2017 which includes forecasts of enplanements and operations. In addition, the FAA released a Draft Environmental Assessment (EA) for the Cleveland-Detroit Metroplex projectiii which included a fleet mix forecast component. The following sections discuss the results of the recent forecasts in more detail. 1.1.1 FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) The FAA annually publishes the TAF which provides forecasts of enplanements and operations for airports included in the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS). The TAF is used to meet the budget and planning needs of the FAA. The latest TAF (2016 TAF) was published in early 2017 and provides forecasts from fiscal years 2016 to 2045. The FAA applies a bottom-up approach for airports with more than 100,000 enplanements in the TAF, which includes DTW. Tables 1 and 2 show the 2016 TAF operations and enplanements forecasts for DTW. Table 1 2016 TAF Operations Forecast Fiscal Year Air Carrier Air Taxi General Aviation Military Total 2016 286,336 99,811 6,104 132 392,383 2017 298,185 93,552 6,191 132 398,060 2018 315,238 76,404 6,191 132 397,965 2019 332,663 57,094 6,191 132 396,080 2020 349,722 38,386 6,191 132 394,431 2021 365,784 21,205 6,191 132 393,312 2022 378,296 9,828 6,191 132 394,447 2023 385,775 7,067 6,191 132 399,165 2024 391,532 6,968 6,191 132 404,823 2025 397,328 7,018 6,191 132 410,669 2026 403,696 7,068 6,191 132 417,087 2027 410,079 7,119 6,191 132 423,521 2028 416,437 7,170 6,191 132 429,930 2029 422,981 7,221 6,191 132 436,525 2030 429,510 7,272 6,191 132 443,105 2031 435,979 7,324 6,191 132 449,626 2032 442,477 7,376 6,191 132 456,176 2033 449,014 7,429 6,191 132 462,766 2034 455,819 7,482 6,191 132 469,624 2035 462,939 7,536 6,191 132 476,798 2036 470,054 7,590 6,191 132 483,967 2037 476,997 7,645 6,191 132 490,965 2038 484,067 7,700 6,191 132 498,090 2039 491,217 7,756 6,191 132 505,296 2040 498,429 7,812 6,191 132 512,564 2041 505,480 7,868 6,191 132 519,671 2042 512,583 7,925 6,191 132 526,831 2043 519,881 7,982 6,191 132 534,186 2044 527,349 8,040 6,191 132 541,712 2045 534,896 8,099 6,191 132 549,318 CAGR1 2.2% -8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1 Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). Source: 2016 TAF Operations Forecast and HNTB Analysis 2017. 2 Table 2 2016 TAF Enplanements Forecast Domestic International International Fiscal Year Air Taxi Commuter Total Air Carrier US Flag Foreign Flag 2016 10,559,904 24 4,848,797 1,179,126 205,642 16,793,493 2017 10,711,282 24 4,994,440 1,238,783 187,120 17,131,649 2018 10,937,943 24 5,087,962 1,245,375 188,116 17,459,420 2019 11,136,420 24 5,170,684 1,252,274 189,158 17,748,560 2020 11,332,719 24 5,252,946 1,259,499 190,250 18,035,438 2021 11,525,705 24 5,333,045 1,267,046 191,390 18,317,210 2022 11,709,694 24 5,409,727 1,274,905 192,577 18,586,927 2023 11,887,848 24 5,484,525 1,283,073 193,811 18,849,281 2024 12,059,258 24 5,556,747 1,291,595 195,098 19,102,722 2025 12,235,043 24 5,630,632 1,300,437 196,434 19,362,570 2026 12,428,052 24 5,711,971 1,309,577 197,814 19,647,438 2027 12,621,445 24 5,792,992 1,319,002 199,238 19,932,701 2028 12,813,778 24 5,874,063 1,328,702 200,703 20,217,270 2029 13,011,577 24 5,957,697 1,338,720 202,217 20,510,235 2030 13,208,744 24 6,041,204 1,349,028 203,774 20,802,774 2031 13,404,298 24 6,123,770 1,359,622 205,374 21,093,088 2032 13,601,466 24 6,206,057 1,371,195 207,122 21,385,864 2033 13,799,539 24 6,289,094 1,383,096 208,920 21,680,673 2034 14,005,034 24 6,375,959 1,395,362 210,773 21,987,152 2035 14,219,494 24 6,466,857 1,409,478 212,906 22,308,759 2036 14,433,513 24 6,557,700 1,423,873 215,080 22,630,190 2037 14,641,669 24 6,646,551 1,438,576 217,301 22,944,121 2038 14,853,682 24 6,736,617 1,453,650 219,578 23,263,551 2039 15,068,320 24 6,827,419 1,468,961 221,891 23,586,615 2040 15,285,375 24 6,918,821 1,484,675 224,265 23,913,160 2041 15,497,681 24 7,007,805 1,501,420 226,794 24,233,724 2042 15,711,862 24 7,097,185 1,518,335 229,349 24,556,755 2043 15,932,294 24 7,188,924 1,535,522 231,945 24,888,709 2044 16,158,300 24 7,282,641 1,552,913 234,572 25,228,450 2045 16,387,002 24 7,377,393 1,570,448 237,221 25,572,088 CAGR1 1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 1.5% 1 Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). Sources: 2016 TAF Enplanement Forecast and HNTB Analysis 2017. 3 The 2016 TAF projects an overall growth rate of 1.2% in terms of operations (compounded annually). Operations by air carrier are projected to grow at the fastest pace of 2.2% annually. Operations by air taxi are projected to decline significantly through 2022 and stabilize thereafter. Operations by general aviation (GA) and military are projected to remain constant throughout the forecasting horizon. The 2016 TAF also projects an overall growth rate of 1.5% in enplanements (compounded annually). Domestic enplanements by air carrier and air taxi are expected to grow at a similar pace (1.5%) whereas international US flag and foreign flag enplanements are expected to grow at lower rates of 1.0% and 1.5%, respectively. Enplanements by air taxi are expected to stay constant. The faster pace of growth in enplanements than operations implies an increase in load factors, an up-gauge trend (i.e. larger aircraft), or both. 1.1.2 Master Plan Update The WCAA completed an MPU in July 2017 which included an aviation activity forecast. The base year of the aviation activity forecast was 2015 and the forecast years included 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2035. The MPU applied a multi-tiered approach to evaluate forecast passenger traffic, as shown in Figure 1. iv The operations forecasts were based on the passenger traffic forecasts and assumptions on average aircraft size, average cargo tonnage per operation, load factor, and FAA’s forecasts on GA trends. Table 3v depicts DTW historical and forecast aircraft operations and Table 4 vi depicts the DTW historical and forecast enplanements by terminal. Figure 1 MPU Forecast Approach 2. Identify key 4. Translate drivers of Detroit 3. Evaluate DTW 1. Select annual demand Primary Area unconstrained analytical tools forecasts into passenger and demand aircraft operations cargo demand Trend analysis O&D and Passenger load Regional connecting population and factor Regression passengers economic factors analysis Air freight Average seats per operation Industry and mail Cost of travel analysis Domestic and Cargo tons per international operation City-pair Global and sectors analysis national economic factors Airline service by Aircraft fleet mix city-pair Source: Figure 3-20 in MPU Final Report - Volume 1.