LTS Modelling to inform work on the Mayor's Transport Strategy Prepared for Transport for London November 2001 Document Control Project Title: LTS Modelling to inform work on the Mayor's Transport Strategy MVA Project Number: C3895022 WP Reference: cmp\tm Directory & File Name: l:\london\lts\c8950.22\summary\mtsnote.doc Document Approval Primary Author: Richard Stanley Other Author(s): Reviewer(s): Paul Hanson (MVA) Henry Abraham (GLA) Issue Date Distribution Comments 1 16/11/01 THu, HAb, PHa First Draft for Review 2 23/11/01 THu, HAb Second Draft 3 26/11/01 HAb Published Version Contents Chapter Page 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Overview 1 1.2 Objectives of the Study 1 1.3 Structure of this Note 1 2 Modelling Approach 3 2.1 Background to the LTS Model 3 2.2 Modelling Goods Vehicles 5 2.3 Modelling Public Transport Reliability 5 2.4 Modelling Public Transport Crowding: LTS Crowding factors 5 2.5 PiXC as used in the Rail Industry 6 2.6 PiXC as used in the LTS model 7 3 Planning Data Assumptions 8 3.1 Introduction 8 3.2 B2.11 Borough Level Planning Data 8 4 Transport Network Assumptions 14 4.1 Scenarios 14 4.2 2001 Reference Case Scenario 14 4.3 2011 Reference Case Scenario 14 4.4 2011 Test MTS (Mayor's Transport Strategy) Package 16 4.5 2011 Test MTS Package - Road-Based Improvements 16 4.6 2011 Test MTS Package - Radial Rail Infrastructure Improvements 17 4.7 2011 Test MTS Package - Orbital Rail Infrastructure Improvements 17 4.8 2011 Test MTS Package - Underground Service Improvements 18 4.9 2011 Test MTS Package - DLR Improvements 19 4.10 2011 Test MTS Package - New Intermediate Mode Services 19 4.11 2011 Test MTS Package - London Bus Measures 20 5 Model Forecast Summary Statistics 21 5.1 Introduction 21 5.2 2011 Reference Compared to 2001 Reference 22 5.3 2011 Test MTS Compared to 2011 Reference 27 Tables and Figures Figure 2.1 Schematic Representation of the LTS Model 3 Figure 3.1 Change in B2.11 Population from 2001 to 201 12 Figure 3.2 Change in B2.11 Number of Households from 2001 to 201 13 Figure 4.1 2001 Reference TLRN Road Network 14 Table 2.1 National Rail Stock Types and Seat/Standing Capacities 7 Table 3.1 B2.11 Population (over age of 4 years old 10 Table 3.2 B2.11 Households 11 Table 4.1 2011 Reference National Rail CTRL services 15 Table 4.2 2011 Reference National Rail Rolling Stock Capacity Changes 15 Table 4.3 2011 Test MTS ELL and OrbiRail Features 17 Table 4.4 2011 Test MTS Underground Service Improvements 18 Table 5.1 2011 Ref cf. 2001: 24 Hour (Cost Dependent) Trips by Mode 24 Table 5.2 2011 Ref cf. 2001: MP Period Trips by Mode (3 Hour Total) 24 Table 5.3 2011 Ref cf. 2001: MP Period Car Statistics (Average Hour) 24 Table 5.4 2011 Ref cf. 2001: MP Period Vehicle Statistics (Average Hour) 25 Table 5.5 2011 Ref cf. 2001: MP Period PT Statistics (3 Hour total) 26 Table 5.6 2011 MTS cf. 2011 Ref: 24 Hour (Cost Dependent) Trips by Mode 29 Table 5.7 2011 MTS cf. 2011 Ref: MP Period Trips by Mode (3 Hour Total) 29 Table 5.8 2011 MTS cf. 2011 Ref: MP Period Car Statistics (Average Hour) 29 Table 5.9 2011 MTS cf. 2011 Ref: MP Period Vehicle Statistics (Average Hour) 30 Table 5.10 2011 MTS cf. 2011 Ref: MP Period PT Statistics (3 Hour Total) 31 1 Introduction 1.1 Overview 1.1.1 This note summarises LTS modelling carried out to inform development of the Mayor's Transport Strategy (published in July 2001) for MTS Scenarios. It presents these both in terms of background to, and results from, the LTS test MTS study. 1.1.2 This note restricts itself to the main emphasis of the study examining the ten year strategy from the present day to future year 2011. 1.2 Objectives of the Study 1.2.1 The Greater London Authority (GLA) in conjunction with Transport for London commissioned LTS to provide demand model forecasting and analysis to support analysis of measures set out in the Draft London Mayor's Transport Strategy (MTS) document which had been published for Public Consultation. 1.2.2 The measures include increased reliability and capacity on existing rail and underground services, additional infrastructure such as new rail lines and extensions to existing lines, road schemes, river crossings, pedestrianisation schemes, more frequent reliable bus services, and road user congestion charging. 1.2.3 The LTS model (version B2.11) has been used to analyse the impact of these schemes and measures. The work described here was largely carried out between February and June 2001. As explained in paragraph 2.15 of the final published strategy document, the MTS published forecasts draw on past trends, research by TfL, and LTS model results; a separate note prepared by TfL/ GLA entitled “Technical Note on Demand and Capacity Analysis Carried Out to Inform the Development of the Mayor’s Transport Strategy” explains how the projections in the MTS were derived. 1.3 Structure of this Note 1.3.1 Chapter 2 describes the main technical issues relating to the LTS model and modelling. It describes briefly the structure of the LTS model and the modelling of public transport reliability and crowding. 1.3.2 Chapter 3 describes the planning data inputs to the model and the assumptions utilised in this study. These assumptions underpin the forecast growth in travel. These were based on interim outputs which are being updated for work on the Mayor’s Spatial Development Strategy. 1.3.3 Chapter 4 describes the transport network inputs to the model and the assumptions which have been adopted for the various strategies under consideration. Note that various simplifications had to be made for the modelling, and that thinking on scheme definitions has been refined further since the work was done. LTS Modelling to inform work on the Mayor's Transport Strategy Page 1 1 Introduction 1.3.4 Chapters 5 presents the main LTS forecast results, in terms of aggregate summary statistics for both highway and public transport modes to the year 2011. 1.3.5 Throughout this report the Mayor's Transport Strategy is referred to by the acronym MTS. In addition, the term Rail is synonymous with National Rail. Test MTS refers to the LTS test package of MTS improvements investigated as part of this study. LTS Modelling to inform work on the Mayor's Transport Strategy Page 2 2 Modelling Approach 2.1 Background to the LTS Model 2.1.1 The London Transportation Studies (LTS) Model is a strategic multi-modal model for London. It is developed and maintained by MVA on behalf of Transport for London (TfL), and is used to provide transport professionals with data forecasts and analysis on travel in the London area. Figure 2.1 illustrates the essential structure of the LTS Model, which is described in detail below. Figure 2.1 Schematic Representation of the LTS Model 2.1.2 The LTS model includes the volume of demand for travel by car, public transport, walk/cycle and lorry in the base year of 1991. Planning data include demographic inputs, jobs and car ownership, and are used to update the demand for travel in a forecast year. The demand for travel is held at a zone level comprising 1019 zones across the study area of London (within the M25) and 584 zones outside. 2.1.3 Within the study area, all Motorways, A-roads, B-roads and important minor roads are represented in LTS by a 20,000 one-way link highway network. For public transport the entire system, (including all surface rail and underground services and stations, and bus services within the LTS area) is represented by a 30,000 one-way link public transport network. The links replicate the routes by which people may travel between zones. The LTS model has networks for the years 1991, 1996 and 2001, and reference networks for future years 2011 and 2021. 2.1.4 LTS models person travel for three separate time periods: morning peak (0700-1000); interpeak (1000-1600); evening peak (1600-1900). The seven categories of person trips modelled are: home based (white collar work; blue collar work; education; employers' business; other); non LTS Modelling to inform work on the Mayor's Transport Strategy Page 3 2 Modelling Approach home based (employers' business; other). Trip matrices are forecast by mode and destination for each of the purposes. These are added to lorry, taxi and visitor trips for assignment to the appropriate highway or public transport network. 2.1.5 The forecasting process follows a conventional structure known as the "four stage model", ie demand (trip ends), mode choice, distribution and assignment. This was illustrated in Figure 2.1. The model can be thought of as having five modules: • demand model • mode and distribution (destination choice) • public transport model • highway model • evaluation 2.1.6 All steps of the model are run for trips wholly within the study area and trips with at least one end within the study area. For trips wholly outside the study area, the current trip pattern is modified by growth rates which are consistent with the National Road Traffic Forecasts (NRTF). 2.1.7 The demand trip end models provide inputs to the overall process, with final loaded networks and an evaluation, if required, as an output.