Volume 14 Number 3 • 2005 EDITOR Prince Mashele GUEST EDITOR Chris Maroleng EDITORIAL BOARD Festus Aboagye Jakkie Cilliers Anton du Plessis Peter Gastrow Iqbal Jhazbhay Len le Roux Sarah Meek João Porto The vision of the Institute for Security Studies is one of a stable and peaceful Africa characterised by sustainable development, human rights, the rule of law, democracy and collaborative security. As an applied policy research institute with a mission to conceptualise, inform and enhance the debate on human security in Africa the organisation supports policy formulation and decision making at every level towards the enhancement of human security for all in Africa.The Institute supports this vision and mission by undertaking applied research, training and capacity building; working collaboratively with others; facilitating and supporting policy formulation; monitoring trends and policy implementation; and collecting, interpreting and disseminating information. © Institute for Security Studies, 2005 Copyright in the volume as a whole is vested in the Institute for Security Studies, and no part may be reproduced in whole or in part without the express permission, in writing, of the ISS. It should be noted that any opinions expressed are the responsibility of the authors and not of the ISS, its International Council, the Trustees, or any funder or sponsor of the ISS. ISSN: 1024-6029 First published by the Institute for Security Studies, P O Box 1787, Brooklyn Square Pretoria 0075 SOUTH AFRICA Tel: +27-12-346-9500/2 Fax: +27-12-460-0998 email: [email protected] 67 Roeland Square, Drury Lane, Gardens Cape Town 8001 SOUTH AFRICA Tel: +27-21-461-7211 Fax: +27-21-461-7213 email: [email protected] www.iss.org.za Layout and printed by Lesedi Litho Printers CONTENTS EDITORIAL CHRIS MAROLENG 1 FEATURES ZIMBABWE’S MARCH 2005 ELECTIONS: DANGERS AND OPPORTUNITIES 5 Peter Kagwanja THE PRISONERS OF HOPE: CIVIL SOCIETY AND THE OPPOSITION 19 Brian Kagoro THE LAND IS THE ECONOMY 31 Revisiting the land question Lloyd Sachikonye AFRICA WATCH THE DYNASTIC SUCCESSION IN TOGO 47 Paul Simon Handy SUDAN: ALL QUIET ON THE EASTERN FRONT? 53 Richard Cornwell THE AFRICAN UNION MISSION IN SUDAN 57 Henri Boshoff A PLACE TO CALL HOME? 61 Mariam Jooma THE GACACA PROCESS Stephanie Wolter 67 TRENDS & MARKERS 69 Some facts about Zimbabwe ESSAYS ZIMBABWE’S ZEZURU SUM GAME 77 Chris Maroleng SECURITY GOVERNANCE IN SOUTH AFRICA Gavin Cawthra 95 WAR AND HIV PREVALENCE 107 Taddesse Behre, Hagos Gemechu and Alex de Waal COMMENTARY ZIMBABWE: GOVERNANCE THROUGH MILITARY OPERATIONS 117 Martin Rupiya ZIMBABWE: BEYOND THE DEMOCRATIC IMPASSE 119 Cheryl Hendricks AID, GLENEAGLES AND THE RUN-UP TO THE MILLENNIUM + 5 SUMMIT 123 Prince Mashele and Jakkie Cilliers BOOK REVIEWS WAR AND THE NEW DISORDER IN THE 21ST CENTURY 129 Jeremy Black YOU, THE PEOPLE - THE UNITED NATIONS, TRANSITIONAL 131 ADMINISTRATION AND STATE-BUILDING Simon Chesterman SECURITY SECTOR GOVERNANCE IN AFRICA: A HANDBOOK 134 Nicole Ball and Kayode Fayemi (eds) EDITORIAL ZIMBABWE UNDER THE SPOTLIGHT CHRIS MAROLENG Frequently publicised pronouncements by were held on 31 March 2005. The participants, President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe that who formally presented their views at this were made before the 2005 parliamentary poll, roundtable, authored the essays contained in which optimistically indicated that he might be this special edition of the African Security contemplating retiring from office, have revived Review (ASR). The main focus of this edition the ongoing speculation about the precondi- of the ASR is the analysis of the on going crisis tions that the aging head of state would require in Zimbabwe and the possible solutions to the to be in place before he relinquishes his posi- challenges that face this country. tion in government. More broadly, there has The delegates at the roundtable generally also been increasing debate about the possible agreed that Zimbabwe was in a state of unprec- shape of a post-Mugabe dispensation, and how edented crisis. There may have been differences this government might begin to tackle the seri- in the articulation of the causes and nature of ous economic and political difficulties facing the crisis. Nevertheless, the participants con- this country. Even members of Zimbabwe’s curred that Zimbabwe is facing a multi-layered ruling establishment now commonly accept crisis that requires a multi-pronged approach. that the formal economy is in a state of near One of the themes common in all the papers collapse. Whatever their publicly stated posi- relates to the various effects that the decline tions, leading figures in ZANU-PF admit that in the economy has had on the domestic a return to international respectability and the political balance of power. The decline of the resumption of aid and loan flows are urgently economy and the deficit in democracy have needed if a complete economic meltdown is had an effect on the living standards of the vast to be averted. The difficulty has been in find- majority of Zimbabweans and have created a ing a common position that establishes a road groundswell of support for opponents of the map for Zimbabwe’s recovery, which is both current government, whose mismanagement functional and acceptable to all the key stake- and corruption are seen to be at the heart of the holders. problem. Much of this discontent is manifested In order to facilitate a discussion of theses top- through the support given to the Movement for ics, the African Security Analysis Programme at Democratic Change (MDC). In this light there the Institute for Security Studies invited a small must obviously be questions about the viability group of experts and analysts from Zimbabwe of the MDC in a ZANU-PF dominated parlia- and South Africa to participate in a roundtable ment especially if the international community discussion entitled ‘Zimbabwe: Imagining the does help alleviate the economic crisis in the future’, before the parliamentary elections that aftermath of an anticipated acceptable political CHRIS MAROLENG is a Senior Researcher in the African Security Analysis programme at the Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria. 2 African Security Review 14(3) • 2005 settlement. This systemic vulnerability of the this country, in order to hopefully assist in the MDC is considered by more than one of the various on going processes aimed at seeking authors. solutions to this protracted crisis. Noble efforts The Zimbabwean opposition, its civil soci- were made by the authors and participants of ety and the Southern African Development the roundtable to imagine and contribute to Community (SADC) region are gripped by the creation of a better future for Zimbabwe. a pervasive uncertainty as to what should be A future that will hopefully provide the people done to take Zimbabwe out of this largely self- of this country with the freedom from want, induced quagmire. The participants agreed that hunger, and fear that they have struggled so the solution to the Zimbabwe crisis will have, hard for, particularly at a time when this county realistically and very delicately, to balance, has just commemorated it silver jubilee of inde- amongst other things, economic and political pendence. exigencies and justice and reconciliation con- Thanks must go to the authors themselves cerns. The balance of forces in the country is whose tireless efforts have produced this work. too close to call and thus no single entity can A special word of thanks must also go to go it alone. the members of the African Security Analysis This compilation of papers covering various Programme, particularly Dr. Joao Porto and topics pertaining to the crisis in Zimbabwe, Richard Cornwell, who have helped and was put together in the spirit of enhancing the provided invaluable advice every step of the broader understanding of the challenges facing way. FEATURES ZIMBABWE’S MARCH 2005 ELECTIONS: DANGERS AND OPPORTUNITIES PETER KAGWANJA THE PRISONERS OF HOPE: CIVIL SOCIETY AND THE OPPOSITION IN ZIMBABWE BRIAN KAGORO THE LAND IS THE ECONOMY Revisiting the land question LLOYD SACHIKONYE FEATURE ZIMBABWE’S MARCH 2005 ELECTIONS: DANGERS AND OPPORTUNITIES PETER KAGWANJA On 31 March 2005, Zimbabwe held its parliamentary polls, the sixth since the country gained independence in 1980. These elections were widely viewed by analysts as representing a rare chance to end political tensions and pull the country back from the brink of instability by breaking the political deadlock that has dominated it since the controversial presidential elections in 2002.1 In recent years, a great deal has been published on what has come to be known as the ‘Zimbabwe crisis’, a classic case that has reinforced cynical views about the weakness or failure of post-colonial states in Africa.2 The current situation is deeply rooted in President Robert Mugabe’s politicisa- tion of land-related historical injustices and tensions. Arguably, he did this to stem the tide of the pro-democracy movement and to sustain his Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) government in power, in the wake of the seizure of white commercial farms from 2000 onwards and the resultant downward plunge of the economy. Although it is obvious that Zimbabwe’s political future hinged on these elections, it is now clear that the outcome has been judged to be unacceptable to the parties contesting it, especially the MDC, which has constantly pointed out the lack of a level playing field. Since these elections have failed to gain a degree of national, regional and international