March 2016 8/2016 Charly Salonius-Pasternak Senior Research Fellow The Finnish Institute of International Affairs The Swedish defence policy paradox > Sweden wants to stay militarily non-allied while seeking ever closer defence cooperation with others Changes in the security landscape of the Baltic region have had a notable effect on Sweden’s security policy. While the Swedish government still emphasizes continuity and stability, developments in the country’s security environment may lead to significant changes in its foreign and security policy. For two decades after the end of the In building its defence, Sweden less focus and the current extensive Cold War, Sweden’s security policy now emphasizes the role of Finland cooperation with NATO would be was based on the notion of perma- and the US. Figuratively speaking, reduced. However, due to economic, nent peace in the country’s neigh- one might say that Sweden is draw- historical as well as practical reasons, bourhood. Sweden’s defence forces ing its shield closer while reaching this is an unlikely direction. were reorganized for the conduct of out across the Atlantic for a bigger A second alternative would be international and crisis management sword. for Sweden to apply for membership operations. Cooperation with Denmark and of NATO. This would be the biggest In recent years, however, the Poland has also increased, as part of change in the country’s defence and Swedish government has reassessed Sweden’s recent activity in creat- security policy since joining the EU the potential threats facing Sweden. ing closer military relations with two decades ago. For several reasons, The country’s new official line other Baltic Sea littoral nations. The the probability of Sweden applying is built, paradoxically, on being Common Security and Defence to NATO in the coming years has both militarily non-allied and on Policy (CSDP) of the European Union grown. a declaration of military solidarity is, however, not a priority as its Sweden’s domestic situation towards EU members and other contribution to operative capacity- has changed significantly enough Nordic states. In order for it to work, building is limited. during the past three years for a shift this policy requires both a credible Sweden’s security and defence in security policy to take place. The national defence capability (which policy is often described as stable, winds of change have been blowing Sweden does not yet have) and more but the choices successive govern- at least since the spring of 2013, international cooperation (which it ments have made in recent decades when Russia practised a nuclear is currently working on). do not support this claim. Some in strike against key military targets in The emerging ‘Hultqvist doctrine’, Sweden are already preparing for Sweden. named after Minister of Defence the possibility that the ‘transitional’ Events such as this ‘Russian Peter Hultqvist, has been seen as an policy based on the aforementioned Easter’ have had an effect on the attempt to solve the discrepancies in paradox is nearing the end of its Swedish decision-makers as well as this policy. Sweden is reinforcing its usefulness. Should there be changes the population at large. All opinion own defence capability, and building in the government, Sweden may polls show that opposition to NATO the capacity for operational wartime make swift changes to its security membership has decreased. The cooperation with Finland and the policy. change is undeniable, as the polls United States. One option could be to signifi- have never before shown Swedes to At the same time, Sweden is con- cantly strengthen national defence have as much support for NATO as tinuing to build a closer relationship capabilities, combined with deep they do now. This is indicative of with NATO while retaining its status bilateral cooperation with Finland an increasing understanding that as a country that does not belong to a and the US. At the same time, the Sweden is dependent on outside military alliance. solidarity declaration would receive assistance in its national defence. 2 Finnish Institute of The most significant change is Those Swedes in favour of join- International Affairs taking place amongst the politicians. ing NATO are concerned by one Kruunuvuorenkatu 4 All of the parties in the centre-right question: would Finland be ready to POB 400 Alliance are now openly supportive make a joint decision with Sweden 00161 Helsinki of NATO membership, and the party about applying for NATO member- leaders aim to make this one of the ship? Observers in Stockholm are Telephone defining issues in the next parlia- concluding that Finnish debates +358 (0)9 432 7000 mentary elections. Less attention has about defence policy now seem more been paid to the fact that amongst constrained than a few years ago. Fax the supporters of the governing The conclusion drawn in Sweden +358 (0)9 432 7799 Social Democratic party, only a small seems to be that Finland will not be majority now oppose NATO member- ready to make a joint NATO decision www.f iia.f i ship. Some have even noted a new in the next few years, maybe not kind of tone in the public statements even during this decade. This comes of Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist. as a relief to the current Swedish There has been speculation that red-green government and to others NATO might not have accepted who hope that Finland’s reluctance new members in the immediate would also prevent Sweden from aftermath of Russia’s annexation of applying for NATO membership. Crimea in 2014. However, the situa- In the event that domestic tion has already changed during the changes or outside events increase past year, for one simple reason: the the pressure on Sweden to change its political and military leadership of course, the Swedish leaders will have NATO has woken up to the challenges two options regarding Finland. One of defending its Baltic members, is to try to harmonize the goals of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. the two countries through an active Simulations and exercises have defence policy discussion. The other The Finnish Institute of International Affairs is an made it clear that NATO needs is to decouple the two countries’ independent research institute that produces high-level research to support political decision-making and Sweden’s ground and airspace in decisions. In the latter case, Sweden public debate both nationally and internationally. a crisis or conflict concerning the would simply state that it is in its Baltic states. Correspondingly, own national security interests to All manuscripts are reviewed by at least two other Sweden needs support from NATO apply for NATO membership, regard- experts in the field to ensure the high quality members for its own defence. As a less of what Finland chooses to do. of the publications. In addition, publications result of this, many now consider undergo professional language checking and editing. The responsibility for the views that NATO would accept Sweden as a expressed ultimately rests with the authors. member should it apply..