Famine Early Warning System NETwork - Zambia MONTHLY REPORT February 20, 2001 SUMMARY · Excessive rainfall in the northern half of Zambia has resulted in water logging in many areas. These include some high maize-producing areas of Eastern and Central Provinces. The extreme southern part of Zambia has experienced consistently dry conditions. Crops in part of these areas have wilted. · Southern Africa regional rainfall imagery shows persistent rainfall deficits in Zambia’s maize trading partners of Zimbabwe and South Africa during January. · The price of maize remained relatively stable from mid-January to first week of February, implying relative balance in supply and demand. · The real into-mill price of maize has been consistently much below that of the three previous years since July for Lusaka District and August for Choma District. · In the year 2001, government hopes to attain a 5% economic growth rate and bring down inflation from its current level of 30% to 17.5% by December. · The Kwacha appreciated significantly by about 23% against the U.S. dollar from early January to end of January. 1. AGROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS Zambia is receiving normal to above-normal rainfall in line with the 2000/01 rainfall forecast. The rainfall in northern parts of the country has been mostly heavy, causing flash floods and water logging in many areas. The southern part has, on the other hand, been receiving mostly normal rainfall with the exception of the extreme southern part where some crops are reported by agrometeorologists to be at the permanent wilting point. In line with the forecast by Department of Meteorology, the country has so far received normal to above-normal rainfall, except for the extreme south. During the last half of January, Zambia received mostly heavy rains. According to the agrometeorologists, flash floods and water logging occurred in some parts of the country. This rainfall pattern was a result of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) oscillating over most parts of the country except the far south. During the third dekad (ten-day period) of January, the northern half of the country A USAID Project managed by Chemonics International Inc. A USAID Project managed by Chemonics International Inc. Plot 30G Sable Rd P O Box 32481, Lusaka Tel: (260 1) 262750/1 Email: http:// www.fews.net Kabulonga Zambia Website: Fax: WWW.fews.net/reports (260 1) 262751 [email protected] FEWS NET Zambia Monthly Report – February 20, 2001 received substantial rainfall, similar to the rainfall received in the previous two dekads. Meteorologists have attributed this to continued dominance of the ITCZ. The highest rainfall was reported by Mpika (Northern Province) with 178 mm, followed by Kawambwa (Luapula Province) with 148 mm and Lusaka with 105 mm. The Department of Meteorology reported that in some areas, cumulative rainfall performance from July 1, 2000 to January 31, 2001 has been well above normal. These areas include Kasama, 44% above normal and Mpika (Northern Province) 41%, Mansa (Luapula Province) 41%, Petauke (Eastern Province) 29% and Kasempa (North-Western Province) 25%. The extreme southern parts, on the other hand, have been dry. For instance, Livingstone (Southern Province) reported rainfall deficit of 52% during the last dekad of January. Information from the Southern Province Meteorological Office indicated that rainfall in the southern parts of the province has been low in volume and poorly distributed. Generally, the crop in most parts of the country is at flowering to tasseling stage. In areas receiving excessive rainfall, water logging has been reported by agrometeorologists while in rainfall-deficit areas, some crops have wilted. 2. HAZARD CONDITIONS Areas experiencing excessive rainfall causing water logging in cropped fields include parts of Western Province (Kalabo, Kaoma, Lukulu and Mongu Districts), Luapula, Northern, Eastern and Central Provinces. Some of these are high grain-producing areas. Excessive rainfall normally leads to yellowing of plants and stunting as a result of leaching and therefore reduced yields. Loss of crops due to permanent wilting has been reported by agrometeorologists in parts of extreme southern Zambia. The regional rainfall picture shows relative dry conditions in Zambia’s major maize trading partners of Zimbabwe and South Africa during January. The rainfall pattern in Zambia so far has brought two extreme problems. During January, part of the country, specifically the northern and western parts (much of Northern, Luapula, Eastern and Western Provinces, Copperbelt and parts of Central Province) received heavy rains, resulting in water logging and flash floods in some of these areas. Infrastructure such as bridges and houses in some areas has been damaged. Areas reported by agrometeorologists as being the most affected are parts of Western (Kalabo, Kaoma, Lukulu and Mongu Districts), Luapula, Northern and Central Provinces. Others equally affected are most parts of Eastern Province (Mambwe, Lundazi, Katete, Chipata and Nyimba Districts). Among these affected areas are high maize- producing areas like Kaoma District and the districts of Eastern and Central Province. The extent of damage, if any, is yet to be established. In the extreme southern part of the country, on the other hand, rainfall has been scanty. According to the Department of Meteorology, during January these areas received poor rainfall. Affected areas include parts of Western and Southern Provinces (specifically the southern parts of Sesheke, Shang’ombo and Senanga and Sinazongwe Districts in Southern Province). Page 2 FEWS NET Zambia Monthly Report – February 20, 2001 According to Southern Province Meteorological Office, most crops in Livingstone, Kazungula, Gwembe and parts of Sinazongwe Districts have suffered so severely that they have reached the permanent wilting point. If rainfall performance improves, no recovery of the crop is expected, a condition also known as agronomic drought. The crop in the northern parts of the province was reported to be in favorable condition. In part of Senanga District, FEWS NET observed the rainfall deficit in the second week of January, as crops were already severely water stressed. With no improvement in the rainfall situation, it is likely that those crops reached permanent wilting point. Although these rainfall deficit areas are in relatively low producing areas, loss of crops will have serious implications for household food security. Looking at the regional rainfall pattern (Figures 1a and 1b), it is apparent that Zimbabwe and South Africa, Zambia’s major grain trading partners, experienced persistent relative dryness throughout January. Figure 1a. Estimated Rainfall (RFE) by Dekad, January 2001 1 – 10 January 2001 11 – 20 January 2001 21 – 31 January 2001 Figure 1b. Difference of Estimated Rainfall from Normal, January 2001 Difference: 1 – 10 January 2001 Difference: 11 – 20 January 2001 Difference: 21 – 31 January 2001 Source: USGS/FEWS NET Southern Africa Page 3 FEWS NET Zambia Monthly Report – February 20, 2001 Compared to average, the extreme southern part of Zambia, most parts of Zimbabwe and the northeastern part of South Africa consistently received below normal rainfall. If the situation continues, it will create a worrying situation for the southern Africa region with regard to maize grain availability. In view of the rainfall pattern, FEWS NET in collaboration with WFP, FAO and DMMU are making arrangements to visit some of the affected areas of North-Western Province, Eastern and Southern Provinces. The objective of the visit is to verify the situation and establish the extent of impact of excessive deficit rainfall on the crops. 3. FOOD SECURITY SITUATION The current season has been better than most recent years in terms of food security. The government’s Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU) reported that areas likely to have food access problems are parts of Kaputa, Cadiz, Petauke, Nyimba, Lungwa, Kafue, Siavonga, Choma and Sinazongwe Districts. For Luangwa District, high grain prices seem to bear this out. Generally, the food security situation in the country during the current consumption year (May 2000 – April 2001) has been relatively good compared to most past recent years as a result of relatively good grain output from the April 2000 harvest. As indicated by low prices in the marketplaces, the grain supply has been relatively good. There have been comparatively fewer areas considered to be food insecure this year. Based on information as of early January from the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU), food insecure areas included parts of Kaputa (Northern Province); Chadiza, the Nyalugwe Area of Petauke District, Nyimba (Eastern Province); Luangwa, Kafue (Lusaka); Siavonga, Choma, Sinazongwe (Southern Province); and Chavuma and Zambezi (Northwestern Province). For Zambezi and Chavuma, food insecurity has been related to refugee influx from neighboring Angola. The Government sent food to displaced households who fled their homes in fear of village raids and other effects of the war. Food was also sent to the Chiawa area of Kafue and Luangwa Districts, which was adversely affected by the March 2000 floods. In the other areas, verification of the food situation was not done. It is important to note that that the 2000 Vulnerability Assessment was not conducted due to the lack of sufficient data. Current reports of flooding of lowland areas in Luangwa District need to be followed up and the situation needs close monitoring. Maize is mostly planted in the lowland (valley area) since the upland often receives insufficient rainfall. However, any effect of crop loss due to this situation is unlikely to be felt until after the harvest period. Press reports (February 16) indicated that the second Kariba spillway gate was opened in mid-February due to the water levels having slightly exceeded the 484.15m water level limit recommended by the Zambezi River Authority. This means that people living downstream in Luangwa, Chiawa (Lusaka Province) and Siavonga (Southern Province) areas might need to brace for possible further floods. Page 4 FEWS NET Zambia Monthly Report – February 20, 2001 4.