Report No: AUS0000585 . Poland Air Quality Management - Poland Final Report Public Disclosure Authorized . January 2019 . ENV . Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized . Document of the World Bank . © 2017 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT IN POLAND FINAL REPORT January 2019 i AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT IN POLAND DRAFT FINAL REPORT vember 2018 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This analytical work was conducted by a team led by Yewande Awe (Task Team Leader) and comprised of Maja Murisic, Anna Koziel, Grzegorz Wolsczack, Filip Kochan, Joanne Green, Elena Strukova, Oznur Oguz Kuntasal, Heey Jin Kim, Rahul Kanakia, and Michael Brody. The extended team included Markus Amman, Janusz Cofala, Gregor Kiesewetter, Zbigniew Klimont, Fabian Wagner, Jens Borken (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis); and Katarzyna Juda- Rezler, Katarzyna Maciejewska, Magdalena Reizer (Warsaw University of Technology). The team expresses gratitude to the Government of Poland and several stakeholders who collaborated with the team, including Mr. Paweł Ciećko, Chief Inspector of Environmental Protection (formerly małopolskie Voivodeship Inspector of Environmental Protection), Magdalena Gala (Voivodeship Inspectorate for Environmental Protection, Krakow); Ms. Kinga Majewska (Ministry of the Environment); Ms. Jolanta Stawska, Director for National Supreme Audit Office in Krakow and her colleagues Mr. Wojciech Dudek and Mr. Mariusz Gorczyca; and Ms. Malgorzata Smolak of ClientEarth Poland. The peer reviewers at the Concept stage of the study were Helena Naber, Craig Meisner and Ernesto Sanchez-Triana. The report benefited from valuable comments by peer reviewers Grzegorz Peszko, Helena Naber and Craig Meisner. The team thanks the World Bank Management team, including Arup Banerji, Carlos Pinerua, Kseniya Lvovsky, Ruxandra Floroiu and Andrea Liverani for their guidance and support. Grace Aguilar, Linh Nguyen, Katarzyna Popielarska and Malgorzata Michnowska are gratefully acknowledged for their administrative support. ii Table of Contents ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ....................................................................................................................ii Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................ iii Acronyms ........................................................................................................................................ iv List of Figures .................................................................................................................................. vi List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. viii List of Boxes .................................................................................................................................... ix Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................... x Ambient Air Quality in Poland .................................................................................................................. x Health Burden and Economic Cost of Ambient Air Pollution in Poland .................................................. xi Future Emission and Air Pollution Scenarios ..........................................................................................xiii Interventions to Reduce Air Pollution from Different Sectors in the Voivodeships where Cost of AAP is Highest .................................................................................................................................................... xiv Policy and Institutional Aspects of Air Quality Management in Poland ................................................. xv Recommendations ................................................................................................................................... xx Chapter 1. Ambient Air Quality in Poland ....................................................................................... 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 1 Historical Evolution of Ambient Air Quality ............................................................................................. 4 Recent Air Quality – Improvements and Remaining Challenges .............................................................. 7 Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 13 Chapter 2. Economic Cost of Ambient Air Pollution in Poland ..................................................... 15 Ambient Air Quality and Exposed Population in Poland ........................................................................ 16 Estimation of Health Burden of Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution ...................................................... 19 Economic cost of exposure to Ambient Air Pollution in Poland ............................................................. 22 Total Economic Cost of health burden attributed to Ambient Air Pollution .......................................... 25 Healthcare and Air Protection Expenditures .......................................................................................... 28 Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 30 Chapter 3. Sources of Air Pollution in Poland ............................................................................... 31 Overview of Emission Sources ................................................................................................................ 33 Future Emissions and their Sources ....................................................................................................... 36 Results – Future Development of PM2.5 Emissions................................................................................. 45 Projected concentrations of Ambient PM2.5 up to 2030 ........................................................................ 48 Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 51 Chapter 4. Benefit Cost Analysis of Emission Reduction Interventions ....................................... 53 Description of Analytical Approach ........................................................................................................ 54 Disaggregation and Source Apportionment of National Inventories to Voivodeships .......................... 57 iii Benefits and Costs of Reducing Air Pollution from Residential, Transport and Point Sources .............. 60 Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 68 Chapter 5. Institutional and Policy Frameworks ........................................................................... 69 Polish Regulatory Context for Air Quality Management ........................................................................ 69 Organizational Structure for Air Quality Management .......................................................................... 72 Air Quality Planning ................................................................................................................................ 77 Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 85 Chapter 6. Conclusions and Recommendations ........................................................................... 89 Ambient Air Quality in Poland ................................................................................................................ 89 Health Burden and Economic Cost of Ambient Air Pollution in Poland ................................................. 90 Future Emission and Air Pollution Scenarios .........................................................................................