SEPTEMBER 2018 THE NAME’S Bond... Welcome to the Autumn edition of The Beauty) to now where we send out tips to Horses Mouth, and what a busy three months over 70,000 subscribers daily. we have in store with plenty to look forward to including Doncaster’s St Leger Meeting, Were you with us when we first started out? we Dewhurst Day at Newmarket, Champions Day at would love to hear from you! pop an email over Royal Ascot, the end of the turf flat season and to [email protected] the start of proper jumping at Cheltenham plus The latest addition to the FRT experience is the over in France the Arc De Triomphe where there Free Racing Tips V.I.P Lounge which is FREE to is the prospect of an exciting clash between the all subscribers of the Premium Tip, Lucky 15, young pretenders Sea Of Class and Lah Ti Dar Daily Patent, FRT Max and FRT Weekender. and the fabulous older generation of Enable and VIP Lounge members get access to regular Cracksman. bonus tips and we are planning a series of And … amongst all of that on 17th September it competitions and events. is Free Racing Tips 10th Anniversary, that’s right If you haven’t joined us in the Lounge yet look “10 YEARS OF TIPS”, we have gone from humble out for your invite code on the regular daily beginnings in 2008 when we sent out just the emails. Premium Tip and the Little Earner (now the Little Follow me on Twitter: @frtgold WRITTEN BY Email: [email protected] Keith Bond The Horse’s Mouth Weekender ITV Races this Autumn St. Leger Your essential guide to upcoming races on ITV Stakes 12 Year Trends In association with Doncaster 15th September 3.35pm (ITV) 1m6½f (1m6f115y) William Hill St Leger Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Colts & Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo) This Autumn ITV bring us a fabulous selection of quality racing and each and every race on any of the ITV channels will also be covered by the FRT Weekender Service. Established in 1776, the St Leger is the oldest of Britain’s five Classics. It is the last of the five to be run each year, and its distance is longer than any of the other four. The Weekender was launched in January this year and to date it has had 5 winning months from the 8 up to the end of August and a healthy 47.79 points profit to level 1 point stakes win or 0.5 points each way as In recent years it has been rare for the best horses to turn up for the race as they tend to target the advised, a return on investment of 113%. Prix D’Arc De Triomphe instead. SEPTEMBER Statistics since 2006 Sat 8 - Haydock Park, Ascot and Kempton - ITV Age – This race is for 3yo’s only. Thu 13 - Doncaster - ITV4 Sex – 11 of the last 12 winners have been colts. Fri 14 - Doncaster (Day 2) - ITV4 Starting Price – Only 4 of the last 12 winners have been favourites and 7 of the 12 were sent off at SP’s of 15/2 or Sat 15 - Doncaster (Day 3) and Chester - ITV higher. Sat 22 - Ayr & Newbury - ITV4 Last Run – 7 of the 12 winners won on their last run before the St Leger, 11 of the winners finished in the first 3 last Fri 28 - Newmarket - ITV4 time, 9 of the 12 winners had their last run within 65 days. Sat 29 - Newmarket (Day 2) and Haydock Park - ITV4 Previous Form – 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 5 previous flat runs, all 12 winners had at least 2 previous flat wins. OCTOBER Official Rating – 9 out of the 12 winners were rated 110 or higher. Group Wins – 9 of the 12 winners had a least 1 previous win in a group race Sat 6 - Ascot, Newmarket and Redcar - ITV4 Current Season Form – All 12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 9 of those winners had at least 4 runs that Fri 12 - Newmarket & York - ITV4 season, 11 of the 12 winners had at least 1 win that season, 8 of them had at least 2 wins that season Sat 13 - Newmarket (Day 2) and York (Day 2) - ITV Sat 20 - Ascot: British Champions Day - ITV Verdict Sat 27 - Cheltenham, Newbury and Doncaster - ITV4 Not the best of races for the fancied horses with just 4 favourites prevailing in 12 years so it is a good race to look for a bit of value, I have always been sweet on Derby second Dee Ex Bee who will be a revelation stepped up to this trip and NOVEMBER will likely be a regular in the Cup races next season if kept in training but the lack of a win this year puts me off for this race so my idea of the race winner and one that fits the profile is Aiden O’Brien’s Irish St Leger Trial Winner FLAG OF Sat 3 - Ascot & Wetherby - ITV4 HONOUR who hasn’t but a foot wrong since finishing down the field in France having won a Group 2 and a Group 3 at the Curragh since both at the St Leger distance. Sat 10 - Wincanton, Doncaster and Aintree - ITV4 Fri 16 - Cheltenham - ITV4 Selection Sat 17 - Cheltenham (Day 2) and Lingfield - ITV FLAG OF HONOUR 20/1 each way Sun 18 - Cheltenham (Day 3) and Fontwell - ITV4 Sat 24 - Haydock Park & Ascot - ITV The St Leger Stakes is just one of the featured races on ITV during St Leger week from Doncaster, we have a fabulous 3 days of televised racing to get our teeth into, get a tip for every one of the ITV races via our Weekender Service Fri 30 - Newbury - ITV4 www.freeracingtips.co.uk/frt-weekender/ *All fixtures are subject to change and cancellation Full details about the FRT Weekender service can be found here www.freeracingtips.co.uk/frt-weekender/ Free Racing Tips Focus on Champion’s Day The 90 Minute British Champion’s Day held at Ascot Racecourse in October each year since 2011, Strategy it is as the end of season highlight fixture of Britishflat racing and the richest day in Hey – Rob here from Form Ratings. British racing, with more than £4 million in prize money. This year Champion’s Day is As you know the Free Racing Tips guys focus on the previews and tips side of things. on Saturday 20th October. What you may not know, is that I look after a sister site called Form Ratings which provides bespoke racecards and a community dedicated to racing systems and strategies. The 90 minute strategy is just one such example (there are literally 1000’s of possibilities..) of how you can identify some solid bets each day based on preset criteria. Finding an edge at this meeting has proved notoriously difficult over the years, the 22 Group 1 races run since 2011 have been The Strategy... contested by 244 runners (9%). No trainer has dominated the meeting Aiden O’Brien and John Pick the horse with the shorter forecast odds from the top two rated on the first 5 racecards that have a maximum of 10 runners. Gosden top the trainer leader board with 3 wins apiece but strike rates of 11% and 14% respectively are not inspiring so how can we Then check the odds. narrow it down? If the horse has odds of Well if you concentrate solely on runners with a starting price of 16/1 1.01 > 1.99 = 3 points or less who ran in a group race (1 – 3) on their last run, aged 3, 4 or 2.00 > 2.99 = 2 points 5, drawn 12 or less, and last run between 35 and 182 days ago we 3.00 > 4.00 = 1 point get 19 winners from 87 runners a strike rate of 22% which is much better and will give a short list to narrow down the fields. A nice little edge is also revealed Tom Queally has only had 5 qualifying rides and 3 of them have won an impressive 60% strike Summary Whilst it’s great for me to share strategies I’m looking at, the fact is there are plenty of people within the Form Ratings community who rate, not a statistic for the mortgage money from such a small have been in the game MUCH longer. They know a thing or two Over the 10 day period in which I wrote this article the strategy about racing and better still, they’re willing to share their ideas. After sample but certainly something to bear in mind. made +5.39 points. all, we all have the same goal! Not spectacular but we’re keeping it real here! Here’s a letter I received from a member in response to that And, to try it out you only need access to the first 5 racecards (which strategy idea; you can get for free..) CADMIUM - A Chaser to Follow Dear Rob, www.formratings.co.uk/free5 I try and eliminate the gamble element as much as possible out of the equation so I do not bet on 2YO races-still babies and 5F races as they This is in theory better than just backing all - but the way you filter While this edition of The Horses Mouth has been can be lost at the start, I also ignore races with 10 or more horses if I am down could be definitely be improved.