Technical Analysis of Vehicle Load Reduction Potential For Advanced Clean Cars (Contract 13-313) Final Report (Version 1.0) by Greg Pannone CONTROLTEC, LLC prepared for California Air Resources Board and the California Environmental Protection Agency April 29, 2015 DISCLAIMER The statements and conclusions in this report are those of CONTROLTEC, LLC and not necessarily those of the California Air Resources Board. The mention of commercial products, their source, or their use in connection with material reported herein is not to be construed as actual or implied endorsement of such products. i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This research benefitted immensely from the experience and talent of Heidi Schroeder. Heidi’s attention to detail and her analytical skills were key to the successful analysis of nearly 1400 vehicle models as required to support the research objectives. CONTROLTEC also appreciated the constructive input and feedback from the Air Resources Board project team. This Report was submitted in fulfillment of Contract 13-313 by CONTROLTEC, LLC under the sponsorship of the California Air Resources Board. Work was completed as of April 29, 2015. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................................. viii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................. x Background .......................................................................................................................................... x Methodology ........................................................................................................................................ x Results ................................................................................................................................................. xi Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................... xi 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................... 1 2. METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................................................. 1 3. LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................................................................... 2 A. Mass ................................................................................................................................................ 7 B. Aerodynamic Drag ........................................................................................................................... 8 C. Tire Rolling Resistance ................................................................................................................... 10 D. Brake and Hub Drag ...................................................................................................................... 10 E. Model Year 2015 and Beyond ....................................................................................................... 10 F. Conclusions .................................................................................................................................... 12 4. IDENTIFY DATA SOURCES AND COLLECT DATA ................................................................................. 12 A. Data Sources ................................................................................................................................. 12 B. Selection of Vehicle Models .......................................................................................................... 13 C. Data Fields and Data Set Configuration ........................................................................................ 13 D. Data Collection .............................................................................................................................. 16 E. Data Quality Assurance ................................................................................................................. 17 F. Vehicle Data Set ............................................................................................................................. 18 5. CROSS REFERENCE VEHICLE CONFIGURATION DATA WITH NON-MASS LOAD REDUCTION TECHNOLOGIES ..................................................................................................................................... 19 A. Background ................................................................................................................................... 19 B. Aerodynamic Drag ......................................................................................................................... 21 C. Method of Estimating the Coefficient of Drag .............................................................................. 22 D. Aerodynamic Drag Results ............................................................................................................ 26 E. Best-in-Class Aerodynamic Drag .................................................................................................... 28 F. Tire Rolling Resistance ................................................................................................................... 36 G. Method of Estimating Tire Rolling Resistance .............................................................................. 37 H. Tire Rolling Resistance Results ...................................................................................................... 38 I. Best-in-Class Tire Rolling Resistance .............................................................................................. 43 6. DETAILED MASS REDUCTION ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY ................................................................. 45 A. Background ................................................................................................................................... 45 B. Curb Weight Reporting ................................................................................................................. 48 C. Vehicle Mass Reduction and Mass Efficiency ................................................................................ 49 D. Mass Model .................................................................................................................................. 49 iii E. Mass Model Elements ................................................................................................................... 51 F. Mass Model Results ....................................................................................................................... 52 G. Mass Efficiency ............................................................................................................................. 52 H. Best-in-Class Mass Efficiency ........................................................................................................ 54 7. PROJECTION METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................... 61 A. Analysis Software .......................................................................................................................... 61 B. Load Scenario Overview ................................................................................................................ 61 C. Baseline Load Scenario .................................................................................................................. 62 D. Non-Mass Load Reduction Scenario ............................................................................................. 63 E. Mass-Reduced plus Non-Mass Load Reduction Scenario .............................................................. 63 F. Power Source Resizing ................................................................................................................... 63 G. On-board Energy Storage Resizing ................................................................................................ 64 H. Fleet Scenario ............................................................................................................................... 64 8. RESULTS ............................................................................................................................................. 65 A. Load Attributes ............................................................................................................................. 65 B. Vehicle Energy Intensity ................................................................................................................ 68 C. Energy Conversion Efficiency, Fuel Consumption, and Carbon Dioxide Emissions ....................... 72 9. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................... 79 10. RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................................................................................................... 79 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................................... 80 REFERENCES: MANUFACTURER WEBSITES ........................................................................................... 86 APPENDIX A: DATA QUALITY ASSURANCE CHARTS .............................................................................