MILITARY NATIONAL SECURITY SERVICE Issue 2/2020 NATIONAL SECURITY REVIEW BUDAPEST Scientific Periodical of the Military National Security Service Responsible Publisher: Lt. Gen. János Béres, PhD Director General Chairman of the Scientific Board Editorial Board Chairman: Lt. Gen. János Béres, PhD Members: Col. Tamás Kenedli, PhD Secretary of the Scientific Board Col. Sándor Magyar, PhD Col. Károly Kassai PhD Col. Zoltán Árpád Lt. Col. Csaba Vida, PhD Lt. Col. János Fürjes Norbert, PhD Lt. Col. Béla Puskás, PhD Col. István Talián Responsible editor: Col. István Talián Make-up editor: Ms. Beatrix Szabó Language editor: Col(ret). Mihály Szabó Postal Address: Katonai Nemzetbiztonsági Szolgálat Tudományos Tanácsa 1021 Budapest, Budakeszi út 99-101. 1525 Budapest, Pf. 74 E-mail: [email protected] Webpage: http://www.knbsz.gov.hu TABLE OF CONTENTS THEORY OF NATIONAL SECURITY FAISAL WARIKAT THE ROOT CAUSES OF TERRORISM IN THE MUSLIM WORLD.…………... ................................................................................... 5 ABDOUSS MOHAMED THE GEOPOLITICAL AMALGAMATION OF MIXED- MIGRATION THROUGH SPANISH ENCLAVES OF ‘CEUTA AND MELILLA’ ................................................................................................ 23 ZSOLT FEJES – SÁNDOR MIHÓK THE ROLE OF MEDICAL INTELLIGENCE IN THE PROCESS OF DEFENSE STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC............................................................................................... 37 ATTILA NÉMETH – SÁNDOR MAGYAR AN INVESTIGATION OF DATA USED TO SUPPORT CONTACT TRACING TO CURB THE SPREAD OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC FROM THE ASPECT OF POSSIBLE NATIONAL SECURITY APPLICATION (PART 1) ....................................................................... 52 ISTVÁN BANDI ON THE ACCESS TO SECRET SERVICE DOCUMENTS IN THE ARCHIVES OF THE COLLEGE FOR EXAMINING THE ARCHIVES OF THE SECURITATE IN BUCHAREST ...................... 65 GEOPOLITICS ALI (SHEIKH) AHMED ABDI AFRICA’S IMPERFECT INTERSTELLAR REACTION TO THE COVID-19: QUIZZED CONTINENT’S HUMAN SECURITY ........... 80 BERK CAN KOZAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS AS A MEANS OF DETERRENCE ............... 97 VIRÁG SZALÁNCZI-ORBÁN – ÉVA BEKE THE FUTURE OF DISTRIBUTED PRODUCTION AND THE IMPORTANCE OF NEW SUPPLY CENTERS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE .............................................................................. 109 GRÉTA VANESSZA VÁRADI – BENCE GÖBLYÖS THE PARTICIPATION OF THE HUNGARIAN AND ITALIAN ARMED FORCES IN INTERNATIONAL MISSIONS AND OPERATIONS ........................................................................................ 125 REGINA SURÁNYI RELATIONS BETWEEN FINLAND AND THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION SECURITY AND DEFENCE RELATIONS BETWEEN FINLAND AND RUSSIA .......................................................................................... 142 INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION SECURITY ATTILA MÁTÉ KOVÁCS HOW TO CONTROL OR COUNTER THE UNMANNED AND REMOTE? .............................................................................................. 155 ZSOLT BEDERNA – PROF. DR. ZOLTÁN RAJNAI REVIEW OF THE ADVANCEMENT OF CRITICAL INFORMATION INFRASTRUCTURES AND THEIR STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS .............................................................................................. 166 ANDRÁS KERTI – LAJOS ZÁHONYI A STUDY OF THE HISTORY OF INFORMATION SECURITY – INCIDENTS, METHODS, STANDARDS AND TRENDS ................. 176 AUTHORS OF THIS ISSUE .....................................................................190 CONDITIONS OF PUBLICATIONS .......................................................191 THEORY OF NATIONAL SECURITY FAISAL WARIKAT THE ROOT CAUSES OF TERRORISM IN THE MUSLIM WORLD Abstract The Muslim world, particularly the MENA region, is labelled by the proliferation of terrorism in particular after the September 11 attacks. This paper tries to investigate the causes of this phenomenon by examining it from three different angles: the religious aspect; the reliability of conspiracy theories around this topic; and the political and socio-economic dimension. The first two factors have a minimum effect, and cannot have ground without the existence of the political and socio- economic factors. The main conclusions that monarchial systems are more resilient to terrorism; secondly, the youth explosion in these states as it does not fit with their economic growth is a tic-tac bomb that is going to explode in the future; finally is that terrorism is a consequence of political and socio-economic failures in these states. The main recommendations are that Muslim states need more political reforms in their systems to ensure more public participation, stricter rules against corruption, better wealth distribution. The alternative is a looming wave of social movements that sweep throughout these counties is expected. Keywords: terrorism, Middle East, MENA, fertility, counterterrorism, causes of terrorism 1. Introduction Terrorism has its impact on the life of millions of people affected by this phenomenon, e.g., the economic impact in 2017 was estimated at around 52 billion US $.1 Terrorism started from the French revolution to take a facet of modern secular politics associated with anarchism, social revolutionism, and nationalism. Since September 11 terrorist attacks, terrorism started to have pejorative connotations with the Islamic world, afterward many terroristic incidents committed by the name of Muslims wreaked havoc across the globe; these actions alongside floods of immigrants created waves of widespread Islamophobia through the Western countries. Majority of Muslims despise these actions committed to the name of their cherished faith chose denial tactics rather than to tackle the empirical data about the size of the terror groups live and work in their backyard. 1 Global Terrorism Index 2018. Measuring the impact of terrorism; Institute for Economics & Peace, Sydney, November 2018. p. 4. http://visionofhumanity.org/reports (downloaded 01 December 2019) 5 This research questions the factors that led to the existence and proliferation of terrorism amongst the Muslim world, especially in the MENA region. The main conclusions are that the political environment is the main reason and that monarchies are harder than republics to be affected by terrorism; thirdly is that the high growth of the young population combined with slow economic growth precipitate them either for terrorism or to engage in criminal activities. There are multiple definitions for terrorism, yet still no universally agreed upon, this paper adopts the following one: “Politically motivated violence carried out by sub-state actors against noncombatants to influence a wider audience”.2 Global Terrorism Index (GTI) defines terrorism by “the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a non-state actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation”3, NATO defines terrorism by “The unlawful use or threatened use of force or violence, instilling fear and terror, against individuals or property in an attempt to coerce or intimidate governments or societies, or to gain control over a population, to achieve political, religious or ideological objectives”4 most of these definitions share the that terrorism targets non- combatants, weapon of the weak, politically motivated to influence and instill fear among citizens. Insurgency differs from terrorism by objectives: revolutionist insurgency aspire to topple political regimes; reformist insurgency tries to compel governments to introduce reforms and alter policies; separatist seeks to secede definite part from the state; resistance insurgency to force an occupying power to withdraw, the last type of insurgencies is commercialist which is interested in wealth distribution.5 Labeling a group 'terrorist' versus 'insurgent' provides a very different context for understanding it and addressing it in a global context. In the most straightforward form, insurgencies can be understood as grassroots uprisings that emerge intending to overthrow the established government or set of societal norms that they feel threatened by.6 Another definition to insurgency suggested by US Marine Corps is that insurgency is “an organized movement aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through the use of subversion or armed conflict.”7 The terrorist group, as suggested by Libcki (2008), is “a collection of individuals belonging to the non-state entity that uses terrorism to achieve its objectives, with a command and control apparatus, no matter how loose or flexible, provides an overall organizational framework and strategic direction.” It is unlikely that the international community will agree on a unified definition of terrorism as the current situation gives the states more freedom to have their definitions of this phenomenon, the main obstacles to define it is to include the state actor or not, other than that is whether the target noncombatants or civilians, 2 SANDLER, Todd: The analytical study of Terrorism; Journal of Peace Research, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313491277 (downloaded 10 March 2020) 3. GTI 2018. op. cit. p. 6 4 NATO Countering Terrorism, 2019. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_77646.htm (downloaded 10 March 2020) 5 CIA: Guide to the Analysis of Insurgency, 2012. 6 UNDERHILL, Natasha: Countering Terrorism and Insurgency; Palgrave Macmillan, London, 2014. 7 Marine Corps Warfighting Publication FM 3-24, Counterinsurgency 3-33.5; University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 2007. paragraph 1-2, 2. 6 whether