Aletta Bonn, Nicholas Macgregor, Jutta Stadler, Horst Korn, Sarah Stiffel, Katrin Wolf and Nikki van Dijk Helping ecosystems in Europe to adapt to climate change BfN-Skripten 375 2014 Helping ecosystems in Europe to adapt to climate change Aletta Bonn Nicholas Macgregor Jutta Stadler Horst Korn Sarah Stiffel Katrin Wolf Nikki van Dijk Cover picture: Sand dunes in Druridge Bay, UK (© Natural England / Graeme Peacock) Author’s addresses: Aletta Bonn Freie Universität Berlin / Berlin Brandenburg Institute of Sarah Stiffel Advanced Biodiversity Research Katrin Wolf Königin-Luise-Str.1-3 / 14195 Berlin E-Mail: [email protected] / now: [email protected] Nicholas Macgregor Natural England Hercules House, Hercules Road London, SE1 7DU, United Kingdom E-Mail: [email protected] Nikki van Dijk Atkins, Western House (Block B) Peterborough Business Park, Lynch Wood, Peterborough, PE2 6FZ, United Kingdom E-Mail: [email protected] Jutta Stadler Bundesamt für Naturschutz Horst Korn Außenstelle Insel Vilm 18581 Putbus, Germany E-Mail: [email protected] / [email protected] Supported by the Federal Agency for Nature Conservation with funds of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety. 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ISBN 978-3-89624-110-8 Bonn, Germany 2014 CONTENTS 1 Summary .................................................................................................................... 11 2 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................... 13 3 2013 ENCA Climate Change Group recommendations for putting adaptation principles into action ................................................................................................ 15 4 ENCA Workshop on Adapting to climate change in nature conservation in norther and western Europe (Edinburgh 2011) .................................................. 17 4.1 Scope and structure of the workshop .......................................................................... 17 4.2 Mountain and sub-arctic ecosystems .......................................................................... 19 4.2.1 Climate impacts and conservation issues ......................................................... 19 4.2.2 Setting conservation objectives in a changing climate ...................................... 20 4.2.3 Adaptation actions ............................................................................................ 23 4.2.4 Information requirements ................................................................................. 24 4.2.5 Barriers and opportunities ................................................................................ 24 4.3 Peatland ecosystems .................................................................................................. 26 4.3.1 Climate impacts and conservation issues ......................................................... 26 4.3.2 Setting conservation objectives in a changing climate ...................................... 27 4.3.3 Adaptation actions ............................................................................................ 29 4.3.4 Information Requirements ................................................................................ 29 4.3.5 Barriers and Opportunities ............................................................................... 31 4.4 Coastal ecosystems .................................................................................................... 32 4.4.1 Climate impacts and conservation issues ......................................................... 32 4.4.2 Setting conservation objectives in a changing climate ...................................... 34 4.4.3 Adaptation actions ............................................................................................ 35 4.4.4 Information requirements ................................................................................. 36 4.4.5 Barriers and Opportunities ............................................................................... 37 4.5 Freshwater and riparian ecosystems ........................................................................... 38 4.5.1 Climate impacts and conservation issues ......................................................... 38 4.5.2 Setting conservation objectives in a changing climate ...................................... 39 4.5.3 Adaptation actions ............................................................................................ 41 4.5.4 Information requirements ................................................................................. 42 4.5.5 Barriers and Opportunities ............................................................................... 42 4.6 Forest and woodland ecosystems ............................................................................... 44 4.6.1 Climate impacts and conservation issues ......................................................... 44 4.6.2 Setting conservation objectives in a changing climate ...................................... 45 4.6.3 Adaptation actions ............................................................................................ 46 4.6.4 Information requirements ................................................................................. 48 4.6.5 Barriers and Opportunities ............................................................................... 48 4.7 Grassland ecosystems ................................................................................................ 50 3 4.7.1 Climate impacts and conservation issues ......................................................... 50 4.7.2 Setting conservation objectives in a changing climate ...................................... 51 4.7.3 Adaptation actions ............................................................................................ 51 4.7.4 Information requirements ................................................................................. 51 4.7.5 Barriers and Opportunities ............................................................................... 52 4.8 Urban ecosystems....................................................................................................... 53 4.8.1 Climate impacts and conservation issues ......................................................... 53 4.8.2 Setting conservation objectives in a changing climate ...................................... 54 4.8.3 Adaptation actions ............................................................................................ 55 4.8.4 Information requirements ................................................................................. 55 4.8.5 Barriers and Opportunities ............................................................................... 56 4.9 Summary of the 2011 Edinburgh workshop and the 2013 Bonn conference discussions ................................................................................................................. 57 4.9.1 Impacts ............................................................................................................ 57 4.9.2 Conservation objectives ................................................................................... 58 4.9.3 Conservation of species and ecosystems......................................................... 60 4.9.4 Key messages for focal ecosystems ................................................................ 63 5 Ecosystem-based adaptation and mitigation .......................................................... 65 6 Increasing connectivity as a climate change adaptation measure: review of concepts, evidence and recommendations ............................................................. 67 6.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 67 6.2 Fundamental concepts: connectivity and impact on population viability ....................... 67 6.2.1 The concepts of connectivity, fragmentation, and metapopulations .................. 67 6.2.2 What is connectivity in the context of climate change? ..................................... 68 6.2.3 Connectivity and metapopulation persistence .................................................. 69 6.2.4 Connectivity and local genetic diversity ............................................................ 70 6.3 Risks and trade-offs ...................................................................................................