APEC ENERGY OVERVIEW 2019 APEC ENERGY OVERVIEW 2019 Disclaimer The views and opinions expressed in this publication belong solely to the authors. For consistency and veracity of the policies and other information contain here, the EGEDA focal points and EWG members of the respective economies were consulted. APEC ENERGY OVERVIEW 2019 Prepared by Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC) Inui Bldg.-Kachidoki 11F, 1-13-1 Kachidoki, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-0054, JAPAN Tel: +81 (3) 5144-8551 Fax: +81 (3) 5144-8555 E-mail: [email protected] APERC Website: http://www.aperc.or.jp For the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Secretariat 35 Heng Mui Keng Terrace Singapore 119616 Tel: (65) 6775 6012 Fax: (65) 6775 6013 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.apecsec.org.sg 2019 APEC Secretariat APEC#220-RE-01.11 APEC ENERGY OVERVIEW 2019 FOREWORD FOREWORD The APEC Energy Overview (the Overview) is an annual publication that highlights the current energy situation in each of the 21 APEC economies. It has been the pioneer publication of APERC in showcasing the latest energy data in APEC compiled by the Expert Group on Energy Data and Analysis (EGEDA). The Overview traditionally serves as a point of reference for those wishing to become more informed about recent energy trends in the APEC region. It contains information on energy supply and consumption, energy related policies and notable energy developments in the region, among others. In view of the increasing request from APEC expert groups, the Overview has also become the platform to monitor APEC goals―energy intensity reduction by 45% by 2035 (against the 2005 level) and doubling renewable energy share by 2030 with 2010 as base year. It is important to note that the analysis on energy intensity improvement and renewable share of final energy consumption included in economy chapters served as indication only and not as each economy’s contribution in achieving APEC goals. As they are both collective goals, the progress on APEC energy intensity improvement as well the APEC renewable share of total primary energy supply and final energy consumption are described in the Executive Summary. You’ll be pleased to find in each economy chapter the various efforts and measures that have been put in place in achieving their stated energy goals as they continue to develop and grow. We hope that this report will help stakeholders deepen their understanding of energy issues in APEC, promote the use of EGEDA (APEC) data and provide useful insights to policy makers in the region. Kazutomo IRIE James Michael KENDELL President Chair Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Expert Group on Energy Data and (APERC) Analysis (EGEDA) August 2020 iii APEC ENERGY OVERVIEW 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The APEC economy continued to outstrip the rest of the world in 2017 with a 4.1% increase in GDP from the 2016 level to reach USD 63 767 billion (PPP, constant 2011 USD). The rest of the world grew by only 3.4% in 2017. The increase pushed APEC’s share to the world’s GDP one percentage point higher than the 2016 level─55% in 2017. China and South-East Asia (SEA) were the biggest contributors to economic growth in APEC with 6.9% and 5.2%, respectively from 2016 to 2017. Among the South-East Asian member economies, the GDP of Viet Nam; the Philippines and Malaysia grew remarkably in 2017 at 6.8%, 6.7% and 5.9%, respectively. A similar trend was seen in total primary energy supply (TPES) with APEC accounting for more than 50% of the world’s TPES in 2017. TPES in APEC continued to bounce back with 1.7% growth to reach 8 013.63 Mtoe in 2017, after posting negative growth in 2015 (-0.3%) and sluggish growth in 2016 (0.5%). TPES growth in SEA (3.8%), China (3.3%), and Russia (2.5%) contributed significantly to the expansion in 2017. Total final energy consumption (TFEC, excluding non-energy) meanwhile continued to fluctuate. After tapering-off (0.4%) in 2015, it grew 1.3% in 2016 and slowed to 0.3% again to 4 769.84 Mtoe in 2017. The dwindling of TFEC was due in part to the contraction posted in 2017 by two large energy consumers in APEC namely, China and the US at -1.3% and -0.4%, respectively. These declines were offset by the increases from SEA (4.5%), Russia (3.6%) and other Americas (2.1%). If non-energy is included, total final consumption (TFC) reached 5 355.92 Mtoe in 2017, 0.8% more than 2016. Growth rate in TFC was bigger than TFEC as non-energy use (4.6%) drove the increase in TFC. Except for 2009, which was a recession year, the 2017 growth in final energy consumption (excluding non-energy) was by far below the average of the previous 11 years of 2.0%. Given this, energy intensity consequently improved 3.7% in 2017 from 77.65 toe/USD (PPP, constant 2011 USD) in 2016. This was the biggest improvement since 2005, the base year for APEC energy intensity goal of reducing energy intensity by 45% by 2035. Together with the steady growth of APEC GDP, 4% on average between 2005-2017, energy intensity has declined by 22.1% between those years. This is 49% of the way to the goal in 40% of the time. Using a compound decline rate, which assumes that the current trend continues at a constant rate of decline, final energy consumption intensity exceeds the APEC goal in 2035. Substantial progress was achieved in the use of modern renewables from 2010 to 2017, because of falling costs and government support, such as feed-in tariffs, auctions, and renewable portfolio standards. Given the current data, it is estimated that the renewable energy (RE) share of TFEC expanded from 6.1% in 2010 to 8.4% in 2017. Assuming this increasing trend continues, the APEC RE share of TFEC will reach 12.6% in 2030─0.4% more than the target of doubling from 2010 to 2030. In terms of TPES, the RE share increased from 4.8% in 2010 to 6.6% in 2017. Assuming this trend continues, the APEC RE share of TPES will reach 10.0% in 2030 and meet the goal. But this does not mean that APEC will stop its efforts to increase the use of RE, as more can be done to identify economy-specific barriers and formulate policy responses as part of a comprehensive roadmap. iv APEC ENERGY OVERVIEW 2019 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We would like to thank APEC member economies for the timely data information provided to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of this report. We would also like to thank members of the APEC Energy Working Group (EWG), APEC Expert Group on Energy Data and Analysis (EGEDA), and numerous government officials, for their helpful information and comments. The APEC Energy Overview 2019 could not have been accomplished without the contributions of many individuals and organisations. We would like to thank all those whose efforts made this publication possible, in particular those named below. PROJECT MANAGER Elvira Torres Gelindon PROJECT COORDINATOR Mathew Charles Horne MAIN CONTRIBUTORS Data Collection and Compilation: Expert Group on Energy Data Analysis (EGEDA) through its Coordination Agency, the Energy Statistics & Training Office (ESTO), Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC). Economy Chapters: Mathew Charles Horne (Australia), Zaharin Bin Zulkifli (Brunei Darussalam and Malaysia), Christopher James Doleman (Canada and Singapore), Victor Julio Martinez Aranza (Chile and Peru), Fang Chia Lee (China and Chinese Taipei), Gigih Udi Atmo (Indonesia), Nobuhiro Sawamura (Japan), Junseon Mun (Hong Kong, China and Korea), Diego Rivera Rivota (Mexico and Russia), Hugh Marshall-Tate (New Zealand and Papua New Guinea), Elvira Torres Gelindon (the Philippines), Ruengsak Thitiratsakul (Thailand), James Michael Kendell (United States), Dan Linh Nguyen (Viet Nam). EDITORS Anchor English Proofreading, UK under the supervision of Christopher Kennard; with internal editing and review from Mathew Charles Horne of APERC ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT Jiro Sairenji, Yoshihiro Hatano, Tomoyo Kukimoto, Yukiko Koyanagi and Yuka Hayashi v APEC ENERGY OVERVIEW 2019 CONTENTS CONTENTS Foreword ................................................................................................................................... iii Executive Summary ................................................................................................................. iv Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................. v Contents .................................................................................................................................. vi Economy chapters Australia ..................................................................................................................................... 1 Brunei Darussalam .................................................................................................................. 17 Canada .................................................................................................................................... 30 Chile ......................................................................................................................................... 59 China ....................................................................................................................................... 95 Hong Kong, China ................................................................................................................. 115 Indonesia ............................................................................................................................... 131 Japan ....................................................................................................................................