STRONG MAYORS’ LEADERSHIP CAPITAL: NEW YORK, LONDON & AMSTERDAM (2000-2016) by Max William Stafford Canterbury Christ Church University Thesis submitted for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2019 1 Abstract This thesis examines mayors and their interaction with their institutional limits. In particular, it considers, from the perspective of political leadership studies, how far mayors fitting the strong-mayor typology are able to assert their will in the face of these institutional limits. David Sweeting’s expositions on the strong-mayor model, supplemented by those of other theorists, form the thesis’ theoretical framework. This framework is applied to three original case studies (Michael Bloomberg in New York and Ken Livingstone & Boris Johnson in London). A fourth case study, of Job Cohen in Amsterdam, follows these and offers alternative perspectives (based upon the application a model of an appointed mayoralty). The analytical tool chosen – the Leadership Capital Index (LCI) – is a recent innovation in political leadership studies. The thesis’ findings demonstrate that there was clear potential for all of the mayors within the systems examined to assert their political will. What varies is how far mayors in different forms of strong-mayor systems can do this and how they achieve it. With regard to the LCI, the study concludes that it needs further development if it is to achieve longevity in terms of its place in the field. The thesis ends by outlining the future research agenda emerging as a result of this study. 2 Table of Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................ 2 Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................. 7 List of Tables and Figures ..................................................................................................... 8 List of Interviewees* ........................................................................................................... 10 1.0 Introduction: Literature and Research Questions ......................................................... 11 1.1 Introduction to the Literature Review ............................................................................. 13 1.2 Context ........................................................................................................................... 14 1.3 Interdisciplinary perspectives ......................................................................................... 16 1.4 Mayors and Leadership: Structural, Institutional and Agential Factors .......................... 18 1.4.1 The Recent Growth in Political Leadership Scholarship ........................................................... 18 1.4.2 Elected Mayors...................................................................................................................... 19 1.5 Theoretical Framework................................................................................................... 24 1.5.1 The Strong-Mayor Typology .................................................................................................. 24 1.5.2 The Sweeting Typology ......................................................................................................... 29 1.5.3 The Theoretical Framework’s Purpose ........................................................................................ 32 1.6 Institutionalism ............................................................................................................... 33 1.6.1 Placing institutionalism within the thesis .............................................................................. 33 1.6.2 Rational Choice Institutionalism ................................................................................................ 36 1.6.3 Definitions of Mayoral Agency .............................................................................................. 37 1.7 The Leadership Capital Index .......................................................................................... 39 1.8 Conclusion: The Literary “Space” for this Study and Resulting Research Questions ....... 41 2.0 Methods ....................................................................................................................... 43 2.1 The Comparative Method ................................................................................................ 44 2.2 Case Study Selection and Justification ............................................................................. 47 2.2.1 Selection Bias ........................................................................................................................ 48 2.3 Contextual Analysis and Policy Case Studies ................................................................... 49 2.4 The Leadership Capital Index ........................................................................................... 51 2.4.1 The LCI’s Theoretical Basis .................................................................................................... 51 2.4.2 Adapting the LCI and Applying it at the Local Level ................................................................. 55 2.5 The Ontological and Epistemological Stance of the Researcher ...................................... 67 2.6 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 69 3.0 Case Study Contexts ...................................................................................................... 71 3.1 The Office of the Mayor of New York and its Relationship to the City Council ................ 71 3.2 The Strong-Mayor System in New York ............................................................................ 74 3.3 The London Mayor: A Political Innovation (Pre-2000 Context) ........................................ 76 3.4 Governance Proposals Prior to the 1997 General Election .............................................. 77 3.5 1997-2000: Election to Election ....................................................................................... 80 3.5.1 The Referendum ............................................................................................................................ 80 3.5.2 Selecting (and electing) a Candidate ............................................................................................ 83 3 3.6 The Subsequent Context for the London Mayoralty ........................................................ 84 3.7 The Dutch Mayoralty ....................................................................................................... 85 3.8 The Consensual Approach to Local Leadership in The Netherlands ................................. 87 3.8.1 Burge vader ............................................................................................................................. 88 3.9 The Mayor of Amsterdam ................................................................................................. 90 3.10 The Relevant Literature To-Date .................................................................................. 93 3.10.1 London .................................................................................................................................. 93 3.10.2 New York .............................................................................................................................. 95 3.10.3 Amsterdam .......................................................................................................................... 97 4.0 Billionaire Builder: Michael Bloomberg (2002-2013) .................................................. 100 4.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 100 4.2 Economic Redevelopment: Background ........................................................................ 102 4.2.1 The 2002 Landscape .................................................................................................................. 102 4.2.2 Key Projects ............................................................................................................................... 102 4.2.3 Bloomberg’s ‘Luxury Product’ – A Billionaire’s Ambition? Gentrification Allegations ................... 109 4.2.4 Notable Non-Economic Issues and Policies................................................................................... 113 4.3 Analysis: The Leadership Capital of Michael Bloomberg ..................................................... 117 4.3.1 Political and Policy Vision .................................................................................................... 117 4.3.2 Communicative Performance .............................................................................................. 119 4.3.3 Personal poll rating relative to rating at most recent election .............................................. 121 4.3.4 Longevity (time in office) ..................................................................................................... 124 4.3.5 Selection or re-selection as party candidate (margin) ........................................................... 126 4.3.6 Party polling relative to most recent election result ............................................................. 127 4.3.7 Levels of public trust in leader ............................................................................................