Public Disclosure Authorized MEASURES TO REDUCE THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACT OF HIGH FUEL PRICESPublic Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized iii ©2011 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: [email protected] All rights reserved This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. iv MEASURES TO REDUCE THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACT OF HIGH FUEL PRICES v The Transport Research Support program is a joint World Bank/ DFID initiative focusing on emerging issues in the transport sector. Its goal is to generate knowledge in high priority areas of the transport sector and to disseminate to practitioners and decision-makers in developing countries. vi CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................ X EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................... XII 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................. 17 2 SUB SAHARA AFRICA TRANSPORT FUEL PRICES ARE AMONG THE WORLD’S HIGHEST .............................................................................. 19 2.1 COMPARISON WITH OTHER REGIONS AND BETWEEN SUB SAHARA AFRICA COUNTRIES . 19 2.1.1 Land-locked and coastal countries .................................................................. 21 2.1.2 Colonial heritage ............................................................................................ 21 2.1.3 Per capita income ........................................................................................... 22 2.2 MAKE UP OF FUEL PRICES IN SSA COUNTRIES ........................................................ 22 2.3 AFFORDABILITY OF FUEL PRICES .......................................................................... 24 3 ADVERSE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF HIGH TRANSPORT FUEL PRICES 27 3.1 EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS .................................................................................27 3.1.1 General competitiveness analysis ................................................................... 29 3.1.2 Competitiveness Analysis by Sector and Country ............................................. 29 3.1.3 Econometric analysis ...................................................................................... 30 3.2 LOGISTICS COSTS ............................................................................................. 32 4 HOW TO LESSEN THE IMPACT OF HIGH TRANSPORT FUEL PRICES 35 4.1 POLICIES TO REDUCE HIGH PRICES ........................................................................35 4.1.1 Reduce FOB and CIF prices ............................................................................. 36 4.2 REDUCE THE LAND TRANSPORT COST OF TRANSPORT FUELS .................................... 39 4.3 RESTRUCTURE MARKETS FOR TRANSPORT FUELS ................................................... 40 4.3.1 Measures of market concentration and scale economies .................................. 41 4.4 REDUCE PROTECTION FOR INEFFICIENT SMALL REFINERIES ....................................... 44 4.5 INCREASE STORAGE CAPACITY AND STOCKS .......................................................... 45 4.6 RESTRUCTURE TAXES ON TRANSPORT FUELS ......................................................... 46 4.6.1 Importance of revenue from transport taxes ..................................................... 47 4.6.2 Fuel taxes and Externalities ............................................................................ 48 4.6.3 EU and SSA approaches to diesel taxation ...................................................... 52 4.6.4 SSA context for transport fuel taxes .................................................................53 4.7 POLICIES TO INCREASE EFFICIENCY OF USE OF TRANSPORT FUELS.............................. 54 4.7.1 Introduce more fuel efficient trucks ................................................................. 55 4.7.2 Reorganize import duty structure .................................................................... 59 4.7.3 Revise the regulatory framework of the trucking industry................................. 60 4.7.4 Improve driver performance ............................................................................ 64 4.7.5 Driver training ................................................................................................ 65 4.8 IMPACT OF FUEL EFFICIENCY MEASURES ................................................................ 66 vii 5 NEXT STEPS ................................................................................... 67 5.1 REDUCTION OF THE RETAIL PRICE OF DIESEL .......................................................... 68 5.1.1 Improving diesel fuel consumption in trucks ..................................................... 68 ANNEX 1 – FUEL PRICE BUILD-UP QUESTIONNAIRE ............................. 70 SOURCES AND REFERENCES ............................................................... 71 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Retail fuel prices in land locked and coastal countries ................................................................ 21 Table 2: Retail fuel prices based on colonial heritage .............................................................................. 21 Table 3: Retail fuel price variation by per capital income ......................................................................... 22 Table 4: Land locked Countries: Make up of retail prices for diesel and gasoline fuel .............................. 24 Table 5: Affordability of transport fuel for private vehicles ..................................................................... 25 Table 6: Affordability of transport fuel for commercial vehicles .............................................................. 26 Table 7: National oil poduction oil intensity and transport fuel intensity ................................................. 30 Table 8: FOB fuel prices in countries responding to questionnaire .......................................................... 36 Table 9: Current and potential transport and distribution costs (U$ cents per liter) ................................ 40 Table 10: Transport fuels market structure ............................................................................................. 42 Table 11: SSA Countries with small refineries ......................................................................................... 44 Table 12: Fuel tax percentage of Government revenue ........................................................................... 47 Table 13: Estimated costs of transport externalities................................................................................ 48 Table 14: Current diesel and gasoline tax rates ....................................................................................... 50 Table 15: Increase in gasoline tax to compensate revenue for reduction in diesel tax ............................... 51 Table 16: Fuel price impacts of proposed pricing policy .......................................................................... 52 Table 17: Imports of Vehicles/Trucks (2005) ............................................................................................. 57 Table 18: Average Truck Fleet (in Years) and Annual Yearly Mileage (in Kms) .......................................... 57 Table 19: Import Tariffs for Imported Trucks (percentage of value of imports) ....................................... 58 Table 20: Impact of measures to reduce fuel consumption of trucks in SSA countries ............................ 66 viii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Average fuel prices by region (U$ cents per liter) ...................................................................... 20 Figure 3: Variation of changes in diesel and gasoline retail price by country ............................................ 20 Figure 4: Average compositions of retail fuel prices in Sub Sahara Africa................................................ 23 Figure 5 : Variation