RUSSIA in GLOBAL AFFAIRS Vol. 5•No. 4•OCTOBER – DECEMBER•2007 Contents Elections and Changes Fyodor Lukyanov 5 Sources of Alienation Containing Russia: Back to the Future? Sergei Lavrov 8 The experience of recent years has amply demonstrated that no single state or group of states has enough resources for imposing unipolarity. This allegedly constructive simplification of interstate relations, based on a verti- cal hierarchy – however attractive this may seem – is utterly unrealistic. Unipolarity, quite simply, is an encroachment on God’s prerogatives. A New Epoch of Confrontation Sergei Karaganov 23 Many analysts in Moscow argue that the political and propaganda pressure being exerted by the West on Russia is the result of Russia’s growth. But this Western pressure is more of a counterattack against Russia than a direct attack, intended to prevent a further weakening of the West’s positions and possibly win them back. This counterattack is an important constituent fea- ture of a “New Epoch of Confrontation.” Russia and the West: Where the Differences Lie Konstantin Kosachev 37 When Russia stands firm in upholding its interests, or shows evidence of its independence in conduct and thinking, it is treated in the West as a signal for ideological attacks. Conflict of values is a matter of propaganda, rather than ideological, civilizational or psychological realities. Russia and China in the Mirror of U.S. Policies Igor Zevelyov, Mikhail Troitsky 49 Russia could learn from the Chinese the intricate overtones of public diplo- macy, even though it recognizes its own difference as a political player. Beijing skillfully lifts its partners’ concerns over the growth of China’s eco- nomic and military capability, and persistently profiles itself as a friendly country that is trying to build a harmonious world. Contents The Russian Model Russia as the “Other Europe” Ivan Krastev 66 The concept of ‘sovereign democracy’ succeeds in confronting the Kremlin’s two ideological enemies of choice: the liberal democracy of the West and the populist democracy admired by the rest. It pretends to reconcile Russia’s urgent need for Western-type modernization and Russia’s will to defend its independence from the West. The source of the Russia-EU crisis is in the logic of sovereign democracy more than that of competing interests. Russia and Europe: No Intermediaries Needed Leonid Polyakov 79 The state per se – no matter whether it is modern or post-modern – has the right to monopoly on power, for which Ivan Krastev criticizes Russia. And the European Union (like Russia) will not allow anyone to establish rules of their own on EU territory. From Process to Progress Svetlana Babayeva, Georgy Bovt 83 The ruling class has run into a perplexity it created on its own. On the one hand, there is governable life based on the apathy of some people and petty pragmatic readiness of others. On the other hand, the rulers have to retrieve the genuinely creative sections of society from dormancy. Governable life no longer satisfies the rulers themselves, while the unpredictability of awak- ening forces frightens them. The European Choice Funky Integration Olga Butorina 100 European integration is usually compared to a train moving toward a single destination that is known to all of its passengers. Today, however, there is a metaphor that more aptly describes European integration: a hypermarket with numerous shops, cafes, Internet outlets, beauty parlors, Laundromats, and multiplex cinemas. The Tomorrow Is Now Hiski Haukkala 116 The current state of EU-Russia wrangling is alarming: recurring problems are detrimental as they distract the parties from the real business of devel- oping a truly strategic partnership that would be to their mutual benefit. These problems – which are undeniably mounting – reveal the haggling at the tactical level and the absence of a truly strategic vision of a gen- uine partnership. About a “Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals” Yuri Dubinin 124 Khrushchev was enraged over Charles de Gaulle’s statement about a “Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals.” He has given instructions to urgently clear it up with the French what their president meant, expressing ideas like that. What if he is hatching plans to break up the Soviet Union? RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 5 • No. 4 • OCTOBER – DECEMBER • 2007 Contents Energy – A Bone of Contention Russia-EU Energy Dialog: Filling a Vacuum Vladimir Milov 132 The approach toward the Energy Charter reflects the psychological impera- tive that exists for a large part of the Russian elite, which refuses to bear responsibility for the fulfillment of international rules that it did not estab- lish. Both the Charter and a broad range of political and economic issues concerning Russia’s relations with the outside world are today viewed from the “we don’t want to be bound by any unnecessary obligations” position. Russian Global Position After 2008 Vlad Ivanenko 143 As Russia regained its power, inherent problems of conflicting interests and cultural incompatibility, which were temporarily hidden under the cover of Russia’s powerlessness, have come to the fore. The initial EU reaction to these new circumstances is to find ways to keep Russia at arm’s length, that is, to erect legal protective mechanisms along its eastern border. The Possibility of a Gas Cartel Vladimir Feygin, Vladimir Revenkov 157 The specifics of the growing natural gas markets leave no room for rigid quo- tas – the principal method used by OPEC on the oil market. The term ‘gas OPEC’ as such should be excluded from serious professional discourse as counterproductive, unduly politicizing the problems, prospects and forms of advancing interaction between the gas exporting countries. Controversies Imaginary Contradiction Tigran Torosyan 168 The principles of the Helsinki Final Act on the inviolability of frontiers and territorial integrity indicate beyond doubt that these principles are applica- ble to relations between states, while the principle of the right to self-deter- mination applies to relations between a state and a self-determining entity that exists within its borders. Russia and Israel: A Romance Aborted? Alek D. Epstein 180 Israel regards Russia’s cooperation with Syria and Iran as an indicator of the Kremlin’s willingness to regain the previously lost status of a great power in the Middle East. It hopes to achieve this, Israel believes, by replaying a sys- tem of relationships that existed before Gorbachev’s perestroika. Personage “Generals Don’t Understand Psychology At All” Hans Blix 192 If Russia really wants to move toward Greater Europe, this cannot be achieved without ensuring a certain level of rights and freedoms of the indi- vidual. It is time to depart from traditions of a state dominated by the KGB or the FSB – depart gradually, step by step. There should be no illusion that this can be done quickly and easily, but this line should be maintained. RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 5 • No. 4 • OCTOBER – DECEMBER • 2007 Published quarterly RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS BOARD OF TRUSTEES EDITORIAL BOARD Sergei KARAGANOV, Chairman Vladimir POTANIN (Chairman) Martti AHTISAARI Andrei KOKOSHIN Vladimir POZNER Interros Holding Company (Finland) Mikhail KOMISSAR Sergei PRIKHODKO Sergei GENERALOV Graham ALLISON (U.S.A.) Vyacheslav KOPIEV (in a personal capacity) Industrial Investors Ltd. 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