EVALUATION OF SURFACE TRANSPORTATION FUNDING ALTERNATIVES USING CRITERIA SYSTEM ESTABLISHED THROUGH A DELPHI SURVEY OF TEXAS TRANSPORTATION EXPERTS by SASANKA BHUSHAN PULIPATI Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Arlington in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT ARLINGTON December 2013 Copyright © by Sasanka Bhushan Pulipati 2013 All Rights Reserved ii “Janani Janmabhoomischa Swargadapi Gariyasi” (Mother and the Land of Birth are Superior to Heaven) – Valmiki Rishi (Sage) in Ramayana Dedicated to: My parents Smt. Lakshmi Devi and Sri. Markandeya My wife Sreelatha My brother and sister Sravana Kumar and Naga Lakshmi and my country India iii Acknowledgements Many people helped me directly or indirectly in successfully becoming a Doctor of Philosophy. First, I am indebted to my supervising professor Dr. Stephen Mattingly who guided me through this joyful journey. In the last two years, his friendship, critique and encouragement have given me the interest and strength to climb one step at a time to reach my PhD goals. I want to sincerely thank Dr. Siamak Ardekani for his guidance in preparing my research proposal and then helping me, as a committee member. I am grateful to Dr. James Williams and Dr. Enid Arvidson for being members of my committee and providing their valuable comments. I am obliged to Mr. Carlos Contreras, president of C&M Associates, Inc., who suggested me to join the PhD program and assisted financially while I was working with him. I am grateful to Dr. Shahram Bohluli who kept my passion for research alive and inscribed the required skills for efficiently working on this dissertation. I cannot forget Mr. Carlos Miranda’s care and help in improving my communication skills. I would like to thank all my colleagues at C&M for their support and best wishes. My special thanks go to Dr. Martin Wachs for his advice in this research. I would like to thank Dr. Sandra Rosenbloom for her encouragement and guidance regarding the scope of this research. I am thankful to Mr. Dan Lamers for assisting me in preparing the surveys. I am grateful to all the participants of the Delphi survey for their time and valuable thoughts. I bid my respects to Mahatma Gandhi and Paulo Coelho, whose books taught me the power of writing and inspired me to achieve my goals and relish them. I am very grateful to my friend Auttawit Upayokin for his guidance and support during my research. I appreciate the help of my PhD colleagues for their support. I iv thank the staff of the Dept. of Civil Engineering at the University of Texas at Arlington (UTA) for their courtesy and support. I also want to appreciate all the help the UTA Library staff has provided to me during the course of this research and documentation. My special appreciations go to the people of the United States of America who welcomed me and made my life easy. I want to convey my gratitude towards Sunil and Soundarya Avadhanam, and Satya Sreeram Kudapa who supported with their kind words and deed during the course my studies. The company of my close friends Ravi Chandra, Sruti, Srikanth, Rajeswari, Kishore, Nadeem and Ganesh always gave the moral support I needed. The time I spent with my little friends Shreya (8), Shreeveda (5), Sri Kriti (4), Naga Chaitanya (3), Satvik (3), Srita Pratika (3), Karthik (3), Sharan (3), Ishant (2), Nivedh (1), Ashrith (1), Shawn (1), Moksha and Sadhvik gave a boost to my thoughts every time. My eternal love and gratitude is towards my friend, love and wife Sreelatha. Although she is a doctor, she listened to my research methods and findings with full attention and provided suggestions. She helped me to start it well and supported me throughout the study. My sincere thanks to my family members: Sravana and Sweta, Nagalakshmi and Naga Prasad, Smt. Rama Devi, and Harsha for their blessings and support. They have patiently waited for my success. Finally, I wish to convey my respects to my parents Smt. Pulipati Lakshmi Devi and Sri Pulipati Markandeya for their blessings throughout my life. My longing to be closer to them always encouraged me to keep moving with the research. October 2, 2013 v Abstract EVALUATION OF SURFACE TRANSPORTATION FUNDING ALTERNATIVES USING CRITERIA SYSTEM ESTABLISHED THROUGH A DELPHI SURVEY OF TEXAS TRANSPORTATION EXPERTS Sasanka Bhushan Pulipati, PhD The University of Texas at Arlington, 2013 Supervising Professor: Stephen P. Mattingly For more than a decade, transportation officials have been concerned that, at current levels, the fuel tax, the primary funding source of surface transportation in the United States, would not provide enough revenue to satisfy the ever rising transportation needs. Recent studies have evaluated alternative funding strategies at the national and state levels. In this dissertation, the author improves this evaluation procedure by developing a multi-criteria evaluation of different funding options for implementation in Texas using a technique called PROMETHEE. This evaluation uses a new criteria system established through his Delphi survey of Texas-based experts who are experienced in transportation financing and/or participate in transportation funding policy decisions. With a well-organized survey process, the author tries to develop a consensus among the officials from metropolitan planning organizations in Texas, various districts of the Texas Department of Transportation and the staff of the Texas Legislative Transportation Committee members regarding the criteria and their weights. The resultant criteria weights seem to indicate that the expert panel members recognize the importance of public opinion and its impact on reaching a legislative vi solution. They appear to be less concerned about criteria that may be addressed through research and modifications to the funding alternatives. This research shows that the funding policy is not seen as a tool for improving user efficiency; this result differs from the common view in the literature that encourages the fuel tax’s replacement with VMT charges, which have high implementation and operating costs. Since the criteria system is based on a Texas based panel opinion, it likely strengthens the credibility of the resultant recommendations among the public. Based on his evaluation, the author recommends increasing the fuel tax and tolling all new freeway capacity, while gradually moving towards congestion based tolls on all toll roads as the set of future funding options. Through a scenario analysis, he shows that his recommendations are not affected by the differences in opinion regarding the criteria weights or any uncertainties in the scoring. Complex, high-cost methods that require advanced technology such as VMT charges and tolling of all existing urban highways are not preferred. Previous researchers’ attempts to identify new alternatives have mainly concentrated on improving the revenue sustainability and promoting efficient travel behavior. With this research, the author tries to bring back the focus to public acceptance and any factors that influence it. Effort to improve the public awareness of transportation funding needs and to improve the public acceptance of increasing the fuel tax and other user charges appear critical for future success. The author also analyzes the choice of implementing local funding solutions in place of statewide funding solutions. In the expert survey, the panel members suggest a balance between the two types of funding while the statewide funding should remain primary. Based on the literature review and Delphi survey responses, the author vii proposes the integration of both methods such that statewide funding remains primary, local funding is coordinated by regional planning and the user-pay principle continues to govern transportation funding. viii Table of Contents Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................... iv Abstract ........................................................................................................................ vi List of Illustrations ....................................................................................................... xv List of Tables............................................................................................................. xviii List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ........................................................................... xxi Chapter 1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 1 1.1. History of Highway Funding ............................................................................... 2 1.1.1. Early History ................................................................................................ 2 1.1.2. Motor Fuel Taxes and Federal Highway Trust Fund .................................... 3 1.1.3. Transportation Funding at State Level ....................................................... 11 1.1.4. Funding Allocation Process ....................................................................... 18 1.2. Transportation Funding in the Future............................................................... 20 1.2.1. Needs ........................................................................................................ 20 1.2.2. Funding Availability or Unavailability .......................................................... 22 1.2.3. Funding Strategies....................................................................................