Shaping a Zero Emission Energy System for the EU Using a back-casting approach for computing an energy mix capable in meeting zero-greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050 for the European Union 28 Member States Bart van Valenberg MSc Thesis in Climate Studies 20 March 2020 Photo by Fernando Fazzane from FreeImages Supervised by: Dr. Zoran Steinmann Course code: ESA-80436 Environmental Systems Analysis Page | 0 Shaping a Zero Emission Energy System for the EU Bart van Valenberg MSc Thesis in Climate Studies 20 March 2020 Supervisor(s): Examiners: 1) Dr. Zoran Steinmann (ESA) 1st) Dr. Zoran Steinmann Building/room: 100/A.245 2nd) Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans E-mail: [email protected] Disclaimer: This report is produced by a student of Wageningen University as part of his/her MSc- programme. It is not an official publication of Wageningen University and Research and the content herein does not represent any formal position or representation by Wageningen University and Research. Copyright © 2020 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, without the prior consent of the Environmental Systems Analysis group of Wageningen University and Research. Page | 1 Preface My main drive for writing this thesis is that I believe most science on climate change is settled, but yet the scientific community is continuing to research the matter further. This is important, but I also sense a lack of effort in actually applying the knowledge we have and take actions to mitigate climate change. This was the reason for me to write a thesis more focussing on a solution rather than about the problem (of climate change). Energy consumption is everywhere in our modern day society, that is why I believe we can strongly mitigate climate change by decarbonising our energy system. This is where the topic of this thesis started for me. Further I would like thank Dr. André van Amstel for giving me the opportunity to do this thesis at the chair group of Environmental System Analysis as the topic itself would not directly be linkable to the chair group. Unfortunately, I could not finish my thesis under the supervision of Dr. André van Amstel for reasons that are private. I had to switch supervisor and was happy to hear that Dr. Zoran Steinmann was willing/interested to further supervise me in the process. I therefore thank him for his supervision during my thesis. Within the scientific community, I also would like to thank assistant professor Solen le Clech’, Peter Enevoldsen and Carolina Perpiñá Castillo. Solen le Clech’ helped me with challenges in the spatial analysis in ArcGIS Pro. Peter Enevoldsen and Carolina Perpiñá Castillo and their teams provided me their data on onshore wind energy potential and suitable areas for solar PV energy generation. Peter Enevoldsen also provided me with insights valuable for the discussion. Lastly, I would like to thank my friends and family for their motivational support and their help in improving the quality of this report. Bart van Valenberg Wageningen, 2020 Page | 2 Table of contents Preface ..................................................................................................................................................... 2 Table of contents ..................................................................................................................................... 3 Figures ..................................................................................................................................................... 4 Tables ...................................................................................................................................................... 5 List of definitions ..................................................................................................................................... 5 Units ..................................................................................................................................................... 6 Prefixes ................................................................................................................................................. 6 Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 7 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 8 1.1 European Union energy transition objectives for anno 2050 ................................................. 8 1.2 Research aim ........................................................................................................................... 9 1.3 Research scope ........................................................................................................................ 9 1.4 Reading guide ........................................................................................................................ 10 2 Methodology ................................................................................................................................. 11 2.1 Data collection ....................................................................................................................... 11 2.1.1 EU-28 energy systems ................................................................................................... 11 2.1.2 Low-emission energy technologies ............................................................................... 13 2.1.3 Potential energy storage and carriers ........................................................................... 15 2.1.4 Spatial data .................................................................................................................... 16 2.2 Future energy system analysis .............................................................................................. 17 2.2.1 Assumptions .................................................................................................................. 17 2.2.2 Back-casting approach ................................................................................................... 17 2.2.3 Calculating costs of the system and avoided emissions ................................................ 24 2.3 Narrative literature review .................................................................................................... 25 2.3.1 Energy distribution and storage .................................................................................... 25 2.3.2 Sectoral electrification................................................................................................... 25 3 European Union’s energy mix and related GHG emissions ........................................................... 27 3.1 Energy production ................................................................................................................. 27 3.2 Energy consumption .............................................................................................................. 28 3.3 Greenhouse gas emissions .................................................................................................... 29 4 Back-casting 2050’s energy system ............................................................................................... 31 4.1 European Union energy production by 2050 ........................................................................ 31 4.2 The costs of the new system ................................................................................................. 33 5 Energy distribution, storage and sector electrification ................................................................. 34 5.1 European Union energy distribution and storage by 2050 ................................................... 34 5.1.1 Distribution .................................................................................................................... 34 5.1.2 Storage........................................................................................................................... 35 5.2 Sectoral energy changes by 2050 .......................................................................................... 36 5.2.1 Transport ....................................................................................................................... 36 Page | 3 5.2.2 Industry .......................................................................................................................... 38 5.2.3 Buildings ........................................................................................................................ 40 6 Discussion and recommendations ................................................................................................ 41 6.1 Summary of results ................................................................................................................ 41 6.2 Energy production ................................................................................................................. 41 6.2.1 Alternative energy generation technologies ................................................................. 41 6.2.2 Wind and solar energy................................................................................................... 42 6.2.3 Comparison with literature ........................................................................................... 43 6.3 Energy storage and distribution ...........................................................................................