T R EPO R C IVI C No. 88 June 2014 No. POVERTY AND PROGRESS IN NEW YORK I: Conditions in New York City’s Poorest Neighborhoods Stephen Eide Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute C S L L CENTER FOR STATE AND LOCAL LEADERSHIP AT THE MANHATTAN INSTITUTE Published by Manhattan Institute EXECUTIVE SUMMARY New York’s City’s resurgence over the past three decades has been characterized by greater fiscal stability, less crime, less dependence on cash welfare, and sustained economic growth. Although income has increased broadly, the gains have been proportionately greater for the most affluent households. This rise of income inequality has prompted newly elected mayor Bill de Blasio to characterize New York as a “tale of two cities”—and to pledge to improve incomes and quality of life for the least well-off. This study establishes a baseline against which future progress may be measured. It presents a quantitative profile, at the neighborhood level, of the low-income New York that Mayor de Blasio inherited. It inaugurates a new Manhattan Institute series that will chart the progress of poor New York neighborhoods over the coming years. How have the poorest neighborhoods in the five boroughs fared over recent decades? Have conditions improved, declined, or remained the same? The neighborhoods examined in this report are: Mott Haven and Hunts Point in the South Bronx (Bronx Community Districts 1 and 2); Brownsville, Coney Island, and East New York in Brooklyn (Brooklyn Community Districts 16, 13, and 5); East Harlem and Central Harlem in Manhattan (Manhattan Community Districts 11 and 10); Elmhurst and Jackson Heights in Queens (Queens Community Districts 4 and 3); and Stapleton on Staten Island (Staten Island Community District 1). These are the poorest neighborhoods in their respective boroughs, in terms of median household income. Conditions in these neighborhoods will be measured using several metrics: “against themselves,” to chart their progress over recent decades; and against wealthy neighborhoods, as well as the city as a whole. Key findings: • Population trends are healthy in New York’s poorest neighborhoods. After catastrophic losses during the 1970s, several neighborhoods have seen double-digit population increases during recent decades, often outpacing the growth rate for the city as a whole. • The most unequivocal improvement in conditions in New York’s poorest neighborhoods has been the crime decline. In seven of ten neighborhoods surveyed, serious crimes declined by at least 70 percent between 1990 and 2013, with murders down by the same margin in nine. • Citywide, the poverty rate has not changed significantly since 1980 (21.2 percent now versus 20 percent then). Among the poorest neighborhoods in the five boroughs, some have registered a drop in their poverty rate since 1980 (East New York and Central Harlem are down by more than 10 percentage points). Others from the same cohort have seen their poverty rate climb (Jackson Heights and Elmhurst in Queens, both up by over 8 percentage points). • The record is similarly mixed for neighborhood-level changes in real median household income. Some poor neighborhoods have seen strong gains, and a few have experienced decline. It has been gentrifying neighborhoods, in Brooklyn and lower Manhattan, which have experienced the highest growth rate in median household income since 1980. Poverty and Progress in New York I • In nine of the ten poorest neighborhoods in the five boroughs, median gross rent has outpaced median household income since 1980. • Poor neighborhoods continue to show high rates of welfare dependence, although the kind of dependence has changed. A smaller share of the population now receives cash assistance than in 1980, but in nine of the ten neighborhoods, at least 40 percent of residents are on Medicaid—and in seven, at least a third of the population receive food stamps. • Family structure has been unstable in New York City’s poorest neighborhoods for decades. The same six community districts (Mott Haven and Hunts Point in the Bronx; East Harlem and Central Harlem in Manhattan; Brownsville and East New York in Brooklyn) that had 50 percent, or more, of families headed by a single mother in 1980 continued to do so in 2012. • Some of New York’s poorest neighborhoods have made substantial progress in rates of educational attainment. Whereas seven had single-digit rates of adults with a college degree in 1980, only the South Bronx still has not yet reached 10 percent. Civic Report 88 June 2014 CONTENTS 1 Introduction 2 Population 2 Income and Poverty 4 “Inequality in New York City”, by Scott Winship* 7 Housing Costs 7 Crime 8 Welfare Dependence 11 Family Structure and Educational Attainment 11 Conclusion 12 Endnotes *Walter B. Wriston Fellow, Manhattan Institute Cover image: New York City Subway Map ©Metropolitan Transportation Authority. Used with permission. Poverty and Progress in New York I ABOUT THE AUTHOR Stephen D. Eide is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute’s Center for State and Local Leadership. He edits PublicSectorInc.org (@PubSectorInc), a project of the Manhattan Institute, and is also a contributor to the site. His work focuses on public administration, public finance, political theory, and urban policy. His writings have been published in the Worcester Telegram and Gazette, Orange County Register, the New York Post, Interpretation: A Journal of Political Philosophy, and City Journal. He was previously a senior research associate at the Worcester Regional Research Bureau, and holds a bachelor’s degree from St. John’s College in Santa Fe, N.M., and a Ph.D. in political philosophy from Boston College. Civic Report 88 June 2014 POVERTY AND PROGRESS IN NEW YORK I: CONDITIONS IN NEW YORK CITY’S POOREST NEIGHBORHOODS Stephen Eide INTRODUCTION he closest New York gets to an official designation for neighborhood is the “community district,” of which there are 59 citywide. First set out in the mid-1970s, community district boundaries define the jurisdiction of community Tboards, whose members advise city government on land use, budget, and municipal service issues. Community districts range considerably in size, from that of a large town (midtown Manhattan is the small- est, at 52,000) to a moderate-size city (Flushing is 250,000). They can be quite diverse—Brooklyn Community District 6, for instance, encompasses both Red Hook and Park Slope. Most encompass several of what would informally be known as “neighborhoods.”1 Table 1 lists the ten poorest (lowest median household income) com- munity districts in the five boroughs, in 1980 and 2012.2 Table 1: Poorest Neighborhoods in the Five Boroughs, 1980 and 2012 1980 2012 Community district 1980 1980 Community district 2012 2010-12 population median population median household household income income Bronx #3 (Morrisania) 53,635 $6,377 Bronx #1 91,497 $20,867 (Mott Haven, Port Morris) Manhattan #10 105,641 $6,488 Bronx #2 (Hunts Point) 52,246 $20,867 (Central Harlem) Bronx #2 (Hunts Point) 34,399 $6,516 Brooklyn #16 86,468 $27,166 (Brownsville, Ocean Hill) Brooklyn #4 (Bushwick) 92,497 $6,957 Brooklyn #13 (Coney Island) 104,278 $29,712 Brooklyn #5 (East New York) 154,931 $7,086 Brooklyn #5 (East New York) 182,896 $31,986 Manhattan #11 (East Harlem) 114,569 $7,302 Manhattan #11 (East Harlem) 120,511 $31,079 Brooklyn #16 (Brownsville) 73,801 $7,541 Manhattan #10 115,723 $36,112 (Central Harlem) Queens #14 (The Rockaways) 100,592 $12,060 Queens #4 (Elmhurst, Corona) 172,598 $44,412 Queens #1 185,198 $12,757 Queens #3 (Jackson Heights) 171,576 $46,119 (Astoria, Long Island City) Staten Island #1 (Stapleton) 138,489 $17,724 Staten Island #1 (Stapleton) 175,756 $57,283 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; New York City Planning Department Poverty and Progress in New York I 1 POPULATION been virtually unchanged throughout the last 30 years (1980: 20 percent; 1990: 19.3 percent). Since New York City is the only old, former industrial city 1980, some neighborhoods have seen their poverty whose population now stands at its historical peak. rates drop by 9 percentage points or more (East The city lost 800,000 residents in the 1970s, a 10 and Central Harlem, East New York), whereas oth- percent drop, but those losses have been more than ers have seen theirs increase by 9 points (Jackson recouped over the past three decades (Table 2). Heights and Elmhurst in Queens). Since 1970, population trends in New York City’s The record with median household income is poorest neighborhoods have been more exaggerated similarly mixed. Whereas some community dis- than for the city as a whole: there were deeper losses tricts have seen real income increase by half (East during the years of decline; and relatively stronger New York, East Harlem) or nearly double (Cen- gains during the recent decades of revitalization. tral Harlem), two have seen their income decline Over 1980–2010, double-digit gains in a decade since 1980. have been posted in nine instances. All ten of the poorest neighborhoods in the five boroughs have As Table 5 reveals, the neighborhoods that experi- gained population since 1980. enced the largest income increases since 1980 were gentrifying neighborhoods. INCOME AND POVERTY In other words, at least in terms of neighborhoods, Poverty and income metrics among the poorest the last 30 years has not quite been a story of the neighborhoods in the five boroughs vary consider- rich getting richer and poor getting poorer. Al- ably, depending largely on the borough (Tables 3 though the Upper East Side’s median household and 4). The poorest community district in Queens income has increased 58 percent (a figure similar has a median household income twice that of the to East New York’s), measures for Staten Island #3 poorest community district in the Bronx.