Kyiv 2017 In blessed memory of Volodymyr Bezkorovainy, Bohdan Hawrylyshyn, Oleksandr Todiychuk* For those who have systemic thinking The Doomsday Clock is now at 2 minutes 30 seconds to midnight. * This book is devoted to three prominent Ukrainians, each of whom was an experienced professional in their field and were known in Ukraine, Europe and around the world. Volodymyr Bezkorovainy (Ukrainian: Володимир Безкоровайний), August 16, 1944 – January 23, 2017, Admiral (Ret.), PhD degree (Military Sciences), former Commander of the Ukrainian Navy, Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine (October 1993 – October 1996). Bohdan Hawrylyshyn (Богдан Гаврилишин), October 19, 1926 – October 24, 2016, Canadian, Swiss and Ukrainian economist, thinker, benefactor and advisor to the governments and large companies worldwide. He was a full member of the Club of Rome, a founder of the European Management Forum in Davos (now World Economic Forum). Oleksandr Todiychuk (Олександр Тодійчук), June 22, 1953 – March 3, 2016, Ukrainian energy industry manager, former CEO of JSC «Institute of Oil Transportation», former CEO of the National oil transmission system operator «UkrTransNafta», Coordinator of the EU – Ukraine energy relationship, Deputy Chairman of the Board of NJSC «NaftoGaz of Ukraine», founder and president of Kyiv International Energy Club. Wars-ХХІ: Russia’s Polyhybression. Based on the researches of the Centre for Global Studies “Strategy XXI” in the framework of Antares project The author of the idea and Project Director: Mykhailo Gonchar. Project expert team: Andrii Chubyk, Sergii Dyachenko, Oksana Ishchuk, Pavlo Lakiichuk, Oleg Hychka, Sergii Mukhrynsky. Antares* – research project of the non-military components of new generation wars, the wars of the 21st century, implemented by the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI”. The project was launched in 2014 by the research “Hybrid war in Eastern Europe. Non-military dimension. Energy component”. In 2015, a report was prepared with consequent publication of the brochure «Energy component of new generation warfare». In 2016, “Putin’s Hybression. Non-military aspects of new generation wars” brochure was published. The forerunner of this research was the Center’s project “Energy resources and their delivery infrastructure: the potential for inappropriate operation in Europe”, realized in 2010 with support of the NATO Liaison Office in Ukraine. The project proposes an energy-centered approach to explaining the phenomenon of war, its energy forms. Also, research on the use of energy resources and energy infrastructure as a tool for keeping the hidden warfare, was carried out. The Antares project gives the chance to play a puzzle of new generation war phenomenon of Russia’s hybrid type aggression against Ukraine and Russia’s multi- frontal crypto war against the West. The publication is intended for a wide range of experts and researchers who are focused on understanding the issues of the new generation wars and modern Russia. *Antares – the one who opposes Ares (Mars), the god of war in the ancient pantheon With support of © Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI” ISBN 978-966-8953-30-9 CenteR foR Global StudIeS “StRateGy XXI” | ContentS | acknowledgment .........................................................................................................6 foreword for english edition ......................................................................................7 origins of the war. Introduction. .................................................................................9 1. Camouflaged war ..................................................................................................18 1.1. A brief look at the history of the USSR’s subversive activities ..........................18 1.2. Hybrid war: Russian instruments of the Soviet templates ..................................29 1.2.1. Energy-centrist approach to the nature of the hybrid wars .......................29 1.2.2. Key features of Russia’s modern hybrid aggression .................................31 1.2.3. Phases of the hybrid war of the Russian model ........................................37 1.3. False-target programming, memetic weapons, crypto enforcement ...................40 2. Russian hybression against ukraine ....................................................................48 2.1. The authorship of the Russian version of hybrid war .........................................48 2.2. Organizational flaws of clear-cut concepts .........................................................58 2.3. Retrospective of cause-and-effect chains ...........................................................63 2.4. Intertemporal preparations .................................................................................69 2.5. False start-2009 and Restart-2013 ......................................................................74 2.6. Specifics of the Crimean stage of hybression .....................................................85 2.7. Unexpected scenario ..........................................................................................91 3. Resonant aspects of the hybrid war ......................................................................98 3.1 Evidences of preparation and beginning .............................................................98 3.2 Some mechanisms for prevention and counteraction .......................................104 4. Polyhybression of Russia. Vectors of expansion ..................................................110 5. Generator of migration flows as a weapon in hybrid warfare ..........................118 5.1. Strategic engineered migration ........................................................................118 5.2. Projections of probable migration flows to Europe ..........................................123 6. the foundation of Russian energy militarism .....................................................128 6.1. Turning energy resources into a weapon ..........................................................128 6.2. Infrastructure component of the Russian energy policy ...................................134 | 4 | WaRS - ХХІ: RuSSIa’S PolyHybReSSIon 6.3. Hydrocarbon “carrots” .....................................................................................138 6.4. Energy grounds, interests and aims of Russia in the Ukrainian frontline of hybression .....................................................................................141 6.4.1. Neutralization of competitors ...................................................................141 6.4.2. Operations on the Black Sea shelf ...........................................................144 6.5. Power transmission to Crimea .......................................................................147 6.6. Cyber and energy dimension of hybression .....................................................150 6.6.1. Grids in wartime .......................................................................................150 6.6.2. Gas contexts of hybression .......................................................................151 6.6.3. Nuclear energy diversification.......................... .......................................154 6.6.4. Coal constraint ..........................................................................................155 6.6.5. Critical energy infrastructure: Plans of hard impacts ...............................156 6.6.6. Attacks from the cyber space on energy grids .........................................157 7. Progressive hybression.........................................................................................162 7.1. Russian vision of the future .............................................................................162 7.2. Scenarios from the Soviet past and the post-West future ..................................166 7.3. An attack from Cyberspace ..............................................................................170 8. on the necessity of energy and financial measures of “enforcement of peace on the Kremlin” ....................................................................................176 afterword ............................................................................................................180 annexes ...............................................................................................................................183 1. Brief description of the energy-centered approach to the phenomenon of hybrid war .................................................................................................184 2. Russian military presence in the east of Ukraine ...........................................187 3. Gas component of Russia’s crypto war against Ukraine ..............................192 4. Soviet and Russian patterns of the Kremlin. Comparative analysis. .............202 list of abbreviations and acronyms, which are found in the text and annexes ....223 | 5 | CenteR foR Global StudIeS “StRateGy XXI” aCKnoWledGment The project team expresses its gratitude to all those who through their assessments, advice, joint actions in Ukraine and abroad, contributed to the Center’s work: HRyHoRII PeRePELYTSIa, Director of the Institute of Foreign Policy of the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; myKHaIlo PaSHKoV, Deputy Director General of the Razumkov Center; VolodymyR KoPCHaK and myKHaIlo SamuS, Deputy Directors of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies; boHdan YARemenKo, Chairman of the Board of