in cooperation with Shifting Bases, Shifting Perils A Scoping Study on Security Implications of Climate Change in the OSCE Region and Beyond Achim Maas (lead author) Chad Briggs Vicken Cheterian Kerstin Fritzsche Bernice Lee Cleo Paskal Dennis Tänzler Alexander Carius Commissioned by the Office of the Co-ordinator of OSCE Economic and Environmental Activities Berlin 2010 Shifting Bases, Shifting Perils A Scoping Study on Security Implications of Climate Change in the OSCE Region Commissioned by the Office of the Co-ordinator of OSCE Economic and Environmental Activities with financial support from Spain Achim Maas, Chad Briggs, Vicken Cheterian, Kerstin Fritzsche, Bernice Lee, Cleo Paskal, Dennis Tänzler and Alexander Carius The contents of the report are the sole of responsibility of the authors and do not reflect the position of the Office of the Co-ordinator of OSCE Economic and Environmental activities Berlin 2010 Adelphi Research gemeinnützige GmbH Caspar-Theyß-Straße 14a D – 14193 Berlin Fon +49-30-8900068-0 Fax +49-30-8900068-10 E-Mail [email protected] Internet www.adelphi-research.de © Adelphi Research 2001-2010 Security Implications of Climate Change in the OSCE Region III List of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..........................................................................................................1 CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENT...................................................5 1 INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................................7 1.1 TIMES OF CHANGE ............................................................................................................7 1.2 THE ROLE OF OSCE IN ADDRESSING SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ..........9 1.3 STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT...........................................................................................10 2 CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: CRITICAL INTERLINKAGES ...........................12 2.1 UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY – WHERE WE ARE.............................12 2.2 SCENARIOS, CLIMATE SECURITY AND STRATEGIC PLANNING ............................................16 2.2.1 What are Scenarios? 16 2.2.2 Essential Steps for Scenario Formulation 17 2.2.3 Potential Pitfalls of the Scenario Process 17 2.2.4 Why Climate Security Scenarios are Specific 18 3 MAPPING SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE...................................21 3.1 THE ARCTIC ....................................................................................................................24 3.1.1 Overview 24 3.1.2 Climate Change Trends and Impacts 24 3.1.3 Potential Security Implications 26 3.1.4 Open Questions 28 3.2 SOUTHERN MEDITERRANEAN...........................................................................................29 3.2.1 Overview 29 3.2.2 Climate Change Trends and Impacts 30 3.2.3 Potential Security Implications 31 3.2.4 Open Questions 34 3.3 SOUTH EAST AND EASTERN EUROPE...............................................................................34 3.3.1 Overview 34 3.3.2 Climate Change Trends and Impacts 35 3.3.3 Potential Security Implications 36 3.3.4 Open Questions 38 3.4 SOUTH CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA ............................................................................39 3.4.1 Overview 39 Security Implications of Climate Change in the OSCE Region IV 3.4.2 Climate Change Trends and Impacts 39 3.4.3 Potential Security Implications 41 3.4.4 Open Questions 43 3.5 ANCILLARY DYNAMICS.....................................................................................................44 4 PROCESSES AND PERSPECTIVES .............................................................................47 4.1 POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL PROCESSES AT THE UNITED NATIONS.....................................47 4.2 THE EU PROCESS ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY..........................49 4.3 PERSPECTIVES OF OSCE PARTICIPATING STATES...........................................................51 4.4 PERSPECTIVES OF OSCE PARTNERS FOR COOPERATION AND BEYOND ...........................53 4.5 THE ADDED VALUE OF THE OSCE ...................................................................................54 5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...............................................................56 5.1 KEY FINDINGS.................................................................................................................56 5.2 RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE OSCE.................................................................................58 5.2.1 For the Political Level 59 5.2.2 For the Operational Level 59 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................61 Security Implications of Climate Change in the OSCE Region V List of Boxes Box 1: Climate Change Challenges All 8 Box 2: Security Definitions 13 Box 3: Scenarios 16 Box 4: Resilience and Sensitivity 19 Box 5: The EU and the Arctic 49 List of Figures Figure 1: A Possible Channel Approach 14 Figure 2: A Conflict Constellation Approach Centred on Climate-Induced Food Crisis 15 Figure 3: Simplified Model of Impacts of Climate Change on OSCE Dimensions 56 List of Tables Table 1: Summary of Security Implications 57 List of Maps Map 1: Environmental Conflicts 1980-2005 12 Map 2: Countries and Regions covered in this Report 21 Map 3: The Arctic 24 Map 4: Southern Mediterranean 29 Map 5: South East and Eastern Europe 34 Map 6: South Caucasus and Central Asia 39 Security Implications of Climate Change in the OSCE Region VI List of Abbreviations AA German Federal Foreign Office IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AEPS Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy MAC Military Advisory Council BMU German Federal Ministry for the MARPOL International Convention for the Environment, Nature Conservation Prevention of Pollution from Ships and Nuclear Safety MoD Ministry of Defence BMZ German Federal Ministry for Economic NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation Cooperation and Development NIC National Intelligence Council CCIS Climate Change and International Security OCEEA Office of the OSCE Co-ordinator of Economic and Environmental CH Methane 4 Activities CLCS Commission on the Limits of the OSCE Organisation for Security and Co- Continental Shelf operation in Europe CNA Centre for Naval Analysis PCB Polychlorinated Biphenyls COP Conference of the Parties SEC Council Secretariat CSP Country Strategy Paper REC Regional Environmental Centre for EC European Commission Europe ECOSOC Economic and Social Council SIDS Small Island Development States EEA European Environment Agency SLR Sea-level Rise EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone UK United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland ENP European Neighbourhood Policy UN United Nations ENVSEC Environment and Security Initiative UNCLOS United Nations Convention on the Law ESS European Security Strategy of the Sea EU European Union UNDP United Nations Development Program FCO Foreign and Commonwealth Office UNEP United Nations Environment Program FOI Swedish Defence Research Agency UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention FSC Forum for Security Cooperation on Climate Change FYROM Former Yugoslavian Republic of UNGA United Nations General Assembly Macedonia UNHCR United Nations High-Commission on GAERC General Affairs and External Relations Refugees Council UNHRC United Nations Human Rights Council GDP Gross Domestic Product UNPD United Nations Population Division G77 The Group of 77 UNSC United Nations Security Council HDR Human Development Report UNSG United Nations Secretary-General IMO International Maritime Organization WB World Bank IOM International Organisation for WBGU German Advisory Council on Global Migration Change Security Implications of Climate Change in the OSCE Region 1 Executive Summary The 2003 Strategy Document (Maastricht Strategy) of the Organisation for Security and Co- operation in Europe (OSCE) calls upon the Office of the OSCE Co-ordinator of Economic and Environmental Activities (OCEEA) to contribute to OSCE activities related to early warning and conflict prevention. This shall be done by monitoring economic and environmental challenges and threats to security and stability and collaborating with relevant international organisations. The 2007 Madrid Ministerial Declaration on Environment and Security acknowledges that climate change is a long-term challenge. In addition, the Declaration outlines that the OSCE, as a regional security organisation under Chapter VIII of the UN Charter, has a complementary role within its mandate and its specific region to address these challenges outside of the United Nations (UN) level climate negotiations. At the 2009 chairmanship conference in Bucharest, the OCEEA announced a new extra-budgetary project focusing on the security implications of climate change. Its goal is to produce scenarios on the impacts of climate change on security and identify how the OSCE could contribute to mitigating potential challenges. The OCEEA and the European Environment Agency (EEA) will jointly implement the project. This report – commissioned by the OCEEA in the context of this project – is a scoping study on potential security implications of climate change. It has four main aims: • Reviewing the state of the debate in current research on climate change and security. In addition, assessing the role of scenarios in policy planning and identifying the characteristics of scenarios related to climate change and security. • Identifying potential