Transit Development Plan Update for FAST Final Report May 14, 2014 Fayetteville Area System of Transit (FAST) Transit Development Plan Update Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ ES-1 Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 1-1 Chapter 2 ROUTE PROFILES ............................................................................................ 2-1 2.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Overall Findings ................................................................................................. 2-1 2.2 Route Profiles ..................................................................................................... 2.4 Route 3 Southeast ........................................................................................ 2-5 Route 4 Downtown – DSS – VA Medical Center ........................................ 2-15 Route 5 Ramsey Street .............................................................................. 2-25 Route 6 University Estates – Cross Creek ................................................. 2-35 Route 7 Downtown – Cape Fear Valley Health System via Robeson/ Raeford ..................................................................................... 2-45 Route 8 Downtown – Cape Fear Valley Health System via Southern ........ 2-55 Route 9 University Estates – Cape Fear Valley North – Wal-Mart ............. 2-65 Route 12 Murchison Road .......................................................................... 2-75 Route 14 Downtown – FTCC – Cross Creek .............................................. 2-85 Route 15 Cape Fear Valley Health System – Cross Creek ........................ 2-96 Route 17 West Fayetteville ....................................................................... 2-106 Route 18 Cross Creek – 71st School Road ............................................... 2-117 Route 30 Downtown – PWC Shuttle ......................................................... 2-127 Chapter 3 PEER AND TREND ANALYSIS ......................................................................... 3-1 3.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 3-1 3.1 System Size, Cost, and Ridership ...................................................................... 3-1 3.2 Performance Measures ...................................................................................... 3-4 3.3 Service Spans and Headways ........................................................................... 3-8 3.4 FAST Trends, 2008-2012 ................................................................................. 3-11 Chapter 4 INTERCEPT SURVEY ....................................................................................... 4-1 4.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 4-1 4.1 Survey Approach ................................................................................................ 4-1 4.2 Survey Results ................................................................................................... 4-1 4.2.1 Questions Applicable to Riders Only ...................................................... 4-2 4.2.2 Questions Applicable to Non-riders Only ................................................ 4-5 4.2.3 Questions Applicable to Riders and Non-riders ...................................... 4-5 4.3 Summary of Intercept Survey Results .............................................................. 4-10 Chapter 5 UNMET NEEDS ................................................................................................. 5-1 5.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 5-1 5.1 Travel Needs: Residential Transit Orientation Index .......................................... 5-1 5.2 Findings from Intercept Survey .......................................................................... 5-3 5.3 New Service and Proposed New Developments ................................................ 5-3 5.4 Public Outreach .................................................................................................. 5-3 5.5 Operator Meetings .............................................................................................. 5-5 Dan Boyle & Associates, Inc. Page i Transit Development Plan Update Table of Contents 5.6 Summary of Unmet Needs ................................................................................. 5-5 Chapter 6 FUTURE GROWTH............................................................................................ 6-1 6.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 6-1 6.1 Population Growth .............................................................................................. 6-1 6.2 Employment Growth ........................................................................................... 6-3 Chapter 7 ANALYSIS OF FASTTRAC! ................................................................................ 7-1 7.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 7-1 7.1 FASTTRAC! Background and Existing Conditions .............................................. 7-1 7.1.1 Required ADA Complementary Paratransit Service Characteristics and Key Features .................................................................................. 7-1 7.1.2 ADA Application and Certification Functions .......................................... 7-4 7.1.3 Call Center .............................................................................................. 7-4 7.1.4 Drivers’ Observations ............................................................................. 7-5 7.1.5 Trip Scheduling and Dispatch Functions ................................................ 7-6 7.1.6 Website Information and Telephone Number ......................................... 7-7 7.2 FASTTRAC! Operating History and Performance ............................................... 7-8 7.2.1 Trips by Time of Day ............................................................................. 7-10 7.2.2 Trips Scheduled, No Show and Trip Cancellation Rates ...................... 7-11 7.2.3 Trip Types – Subscription, Advance and Same-Day ............................ 7-12 7.2.4 Vehicle Scheduling in Relation to Trip Demand ................................... 7-15 7.2.5 Trip Costs ............................................................................................. 7-16 7.3 Comparing FASTTRAC! Performance with Peer Systems – Demand Response Programs ............................................................................. 7-16 7.4 Service Area Characteristics and FASTTRAC! Demand Estimation ................. 7-18 7.4.1 Population Characteristics .................................................................... 7-18 7.4.2 Operating Environment Comments ...................................................... 7-20 7.4.3 Demand Estimation Methodology from TCRP Report 119 (Project B-28) -- Introduction to the Model ................................................... 7-21 7.4.4 ADA Ridership Estimations for Fayetteville and FASTTRAC! ............... 7-22 7.4.5 Demand Estimations Summarized in Terms of Vehicle Requirements 7-25 7.4.6 Estimating Costs ................................................................................... 7-28 7.5 Discussion of Review Findings ......................................................................... 7-28 7.5.1 ADA Compliance .................................................................................. 7-28 7.5.2 Trip Reservations and Scheduling ........................................................ 7-29 7.5.3 Rider Policies, Communication, and Education .................................... 7-29 7.5.4 Passenger Fares .................................................................................. 7-30 7.5.5 Operating Costs .................................................................................... 7-30 7.5.6 Demand Estimation and Vehicle Requirements ................................... 7-30 7.5.7 Demand Management Strategies ......................................................... 7-31 7.5.8 Cost Efficiency Strategies ..................................................................... 7-32 Chapter 8 SERVICE RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................................................... 8-1 8.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 8-1 8.1 Transit Goals and Objectives ............................................................................. 8-1 8.2 Short-Range Recommendations ........................................................................ 8-3 8.3 Mid-Range Recommendations ......................................................................... 8-15 8.4 Long-Range Recommendations ....................................................................... 8-21 8.5 Input at the Public Meetings ............................................................................. 8-23 8.6 Cost Estimates ................................................................................................