ADB Project Document TA–1234: Strategy for Liaoning North Yellow Sea Regional Cooperation and Development RCI Needs Assessment, Development Strategy, and Implementation Action Plan for Liaoning Province February L2MN This report was prepared by David Roland-Holst, under the direction of Ying Qian and Philip Chang. Primary contributors to the report were Jean Francois Gautrin, LI Shantong, WANG Weiguang, and YANG Song. We are grateful to Wang Jin and Zhang Bingnan for implementation support. Special thanks to Edith Joan Nacpil and Zhuang Jian, for comments and insights. Dahlia Peterson, Wang Shan, Wang Zhifeng provided indispensable research assistance. Asian Development Bank 4 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City MPP2 Metro Manila, Philippines www.adb.org © L2MP by Asian Development Bank April L2MP ISSN L3M3-4P3U (Print), L3M3-4PXP (e-ISSN) Publication Stock No. WPSXXXXXX-X The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. Note: In this publication, the symbol “$” refers to US dollars. Printed on recycled paper 2 CONTENTS Executive Summary ......................................................................................................... 10 I. Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1 II. Baseline Assessment .................................................................................................. 3 A. Macroeconomic Management and Performance ................................................................ 3 1. Understanding the Macroeconomic Challenge facing Liaoning ........................................... 6 2. Attracting Foreign Trade and Investment ............................................................................. 8 3. Relatively Small Scale of Foreign Trade .............................................................................. 11 4. Too Many Low Value-Added Commodities for Export/Import ........................................... 12 5. Imbalanced Volume Among Cities ...................................................................................... 12 6. Imbalanced Foreign Investment Among Industries and Source Countries ......................... 12 B. Transport Infrastructure development and financing ....................................................... 13 C. Industrial development for manufacturing exports .......................................................... 20 1. Background ......................................................................................................................... 20 2. Internationalization of Liaoning's equipment manufacturing industry .............................. 26 3. Problems in the Development of Liaoning's Equipment Manufacturing Industry .............. 29 D. Sea- Rail Multimodal Transportation ................................................................................ 38 1. Policies and mechanisms .................................................................................................... 41 2. Infrastructures and natural conditions ............................................................................... 42 3. Potential of sea-rail multimodal in transportation system ................................................. 44 4. SWOT analysis ..................................................................................................................... 45 5. Current Development of Liaoning’s Sea-Railway Multimodal ............................................ 48 6. Operational Models ............................................................................................................ 57 7. Foreign and Domestic Growth Patterns and Impacts of Supporting Policies ..................... 61 E. Port Management ............................................................................................................ 70 1. The Layout and Development Plan of Ports in Liaoning Province ...................................... 70 2. Status of the Management of Port Resources in Liaoning Province ................................... 72 3. Management Problems ...................................................................................................... 76 4. DEA Method of the Comprehensive Evaluation of Port Resources in Liaoning Province ... 79 5. Basic Concept of DEA .......................................................................................................... 81 6. The Basic Idea of DEA .......................................................................................................... 82 7. The Efficiency Evaluation Model of DEA ............................................................................. 83 8. Input-output Indicator Selection based on the Variable Model of Economies of Scale ..... 85 9. Input and output indicators of DMU data sample .............................................................. 86 III. Development Strategy ......................................................................................... 87 A. Macroeconomic management and performance .............................................................. 87 1. International Level .............................................................................................................. 87 2. Inter-provincial Dimension ................................................................................................. 91 3. Intra-provincial Dimension .................................................................................................. 92 4. General Conclusions ........................................................................................................... 92 B. Transport infrastructure development and financing ....................................................... 97 1. Definition of PPP ................................................................................................................. 97 2. Types of PPP Schemes ......................................................................................................... 99 3. PPP Projects: Stages and Process ...................................................................................... 104 4. PPP Projects: Growth and Trends ..................................................................................... 108 5. PPP Projects in China (CPPPC) ........................................................................................... 111 C. Industrial development for manufacturing exports ........................................................ 116 1. International expansion has become an inevitable choice ............................................... 116 2. National policies have provided strong support ............................................................... 118 3 D. Sea-Rail Multimodal Transportation ............................................................................... 123 1. National Initiatives and Policies ........................................................................................ 123 2. Internet Plus and Technological Development ................................................................. 127 3. Policy context .................................................................................................................... 132 4. Case studies of the integration of Internet Plus and technological development ............ 133 5. Influence of Internet Plus and technological development .............................................. 135 6. The Role of Private Capital ................................................................................................ 138 7. Transport service industry ................................................................................................ 139 8. Emerging transport industry ............................................................................................. 140 9. Case studies of private investment in transportation ....................................................... 143 10. Bottlenecks and Challenges .......................................................................................... 148 11. Incomprehensive Network ........................................................................................... 153 12. Resources Shortage in Transit Stations ........................................................................ 154 E. Port Management .......................................................................................................... 156 1. SWOT Analysis .................................................................................................................. 156 2. The Operational Efficiency Evaluation of Dalian Port ....................................................... 158 3. Analysis of Pure Technology Efficiency and Scale Efficiency of Dalian Port Operation .... 161 4. The Redundancy Analysis of Dalian Port Operational Efficiency ...................................... 162 5. Operational Efficiency Evaluation of Yingkou Port ..........................................................