Current Situation and Future Plan of Infra Development in Myanmar 13 June 2016 Mr. Kyi Zaw Myint Director Expressway Unit Department of Highway 1 Myanmar Profile 2 History of DOH Myanmar 3 Road Classification in Myanmar 4 Issue in Arterial Road Network Development in Myanmar 5 Long Term Arterial Road Network Development Plan For Myanmar 6 Finding Strategies 7 How to Finance Myanmar's Transport Infrastructure by ADB 8 SWOT Analysis of Myanmar Transport Sector by ADB National data Population - 54.6 millions Land Area - 676,578 sq km Coastal Line - 2800 km Road Length - 162985 km (2015) No of Registered - 5320608 (2015 Sept) Vehicle Neighbouring - China, Laos,Thailand, Countries India ,Bangladesh, Myanmar National Data Composition Capital City •Naypyitaw (Government) •7 States & 7 Regions •Yangon (Economic) •138 National Races •Mandalay (Culture) Official Language •Myanmar Climate •Seasons ( Summer, Rainy, Winter) •Temperature (Mean max: 31˚C) •Humidity (Mean ~ 70 %) •Avg. Annual rainfall (~ 1800 mm) Economy •Currency – Kyat ( 1 US $ ~ 1179 kyat ) on 6JUNE2016 6 •Per capita GDP – 700 US $ (December 2015) Union Minister Minister’s Office Permanent Secretary Department Department of Department Department of Building Highways of Bridge of Urban and Housing Director General Director General Director General Development Director General Colonial Era (to 1948) Parliament Democracy Era (1948 to 1962) Myanmar Socialist Era (1962 to 1988) State Peace and Development Council (1988 to 2010) Current (2010 to Now) Colonial Era (to 1948) PWD was established at 1861 after Second Anglo-Burmese war. Engineers of PWD were assigned India Services of Engineer(ISE). Responsibility for the Construction and Maintenance of • Roads and Bridges • Canals, Irrigation, River Training • Harbours and marine-time facilities, eg: lighthouses • Hospital and School Building • Building of offices and Official residences • Not including Railway Construction At 1937, after separation from India, PWD Engineers became Burma services of Engineers(BSE). BSE ceased to exist after independence in January 1948. Parliamentary Government Era (1948-1962) Responsibility of PWD are Construction and Maintenance of • Roads and Bridges • Canals, Irrigation, River Training • Harbours and marine-time facilities, eg: lighthouses • Hospital and School Building • Building of offices and Official residences • Not including Railway Construction The organization of PWD was nearly same with colonial Era PWD. Myanmar Socialist Government Era (1962 to 1988) In 1964, Government established Public Works Corporation with all Engineers from all Government Departments. PWD was the only department for National Infrastructure Development Military Government Era (1988-2010) In 1988, Democracy revolution was appeared and the Myanmar military attained the Country and ruled by State Peace and Development Council (SPDC). Changed the name of Ministry to Ministry of Construction PWD is under the Ministry of Construction The responsibility of PWD are Construction and Maintenance of Road and Bridges. For irrigation is under the Ministry of Agriculture. For canal and river training are under the Ministry of Transportation. All of the Ministries have owned Engineering Department. Democratic Government (2010 to Now) PWD is under the Ministry of Construction. The main responsibility of PWD is Construction and Maintenance of Road and Bridges and the development of National Infrastructure especially roads Transport Sector. At 2015, PWD was divided into three Departments as • Department of Highways (DOH) • Department of Bridges (DOB) • Department of Building Now Ministry of Construction plan to combine the DOH and DOB into one Department. Now DOH is planning to reform SOE by corporatization. (As of January, 2015) Organizations Concrete Bituminous + Metal Gravel Earth Mule Total (km) road AC road road road road road 1 Ministry of Construction 934.421 20426.709 4625.359 5546.808 7874.62 720.58 40128.504 2 Ministry of Livestock, Fisheries and Rural 348.02 4778.14 18680.46 4976.69 59344.56 - 88127.87 Development 3 Ministry of Border 607.53 4405.58 2693.84 684.57 6582.01 - 14973.53 Areas 4 Yangon City Development - 1604.31 1452.63 1582.79 - - 4639.73 Committee 5 Mandalay C D C 19.01 754.68 146.90 - 314.27 - 1234.86 6 Naypyitaw C D C 407.77 160.93 41.84 1035.81 177.03 - 1823.38 7 Directorate of Military 393.48 703.08 1204.19 170.59 8482.15 - 10953.49 Engineers 8 Ministry of Electrical 86.70 88.51 542.15 96.36 290.28 - 1104.00 Power Grand Total (km) 2796.93 32921.94 29387.37 14093.62 83064.92 720.58 162-985.36 Sr Concrete Bituminous Metal Gravel Earth Total Budget Year No. (km) (km) (km) (km) (km) (km) 1 March. 2011 638 16623 5635 5561 9326 37785 2 March. 2012 661 17185 5740 5642 9855 39083 3 March. 2013 695 18286 5255 5793 9673 39702 4 March. 2014 934 20427 4625 5547 8596 40129 5 March 2015 1217 22990 4314 4963 7090 40574 59.7% 53.2% 47.8% 45.6% 45.7% Total road length 162985 (March, 2015) 2% 0% 20% Concrete - 2796.8 km Bituminous - 32922.1 km Metalled - 29387.2 km 51% Gravel - 14093.6 km 18% Earth - 83064.8 km Mule - 720.6 km 9% Paved Ratio : 22 % 11. Planning Process 22. Development Planning Strategy 33. Transport Infrastructure Development 44. How to Develop Arterial Road Networks 1. Planning Issues Planning Process Goals / Objectives / Targets forecasting Current Situations Future Situations by Policies Improvement Strategies - how much ? - how many ? - how strong ? Improvement Methods ○ Not Extrapolation of Current Trends → Policies for the future Government’s Policies on Economic Development are in the National Comprehensive Development Plan Goals / Objectives ⇒ O.K. Related Strategies ⇒ O.K. Strategies Transport How to make it implemented ? Infrastructure Targets ⇒ Socio-Economic Indicators Implementation Transport Infrastructure is a basis for Economic Development 2. Development Planning Strategy 3. Transport Infrastructure Development Transport Planning & Spatial Development Plans are closely related ⇒ Spatial development plans should be supported by transport infrastructure 4. How to Develop Arterial Road Networks ? Master Plan Financing Strategy - Long-term - Gov. Fund - Comprehensive - Loan - Priority - Private Investment Capacity Building within Legal Frameworks Thinking the Future Acting by Phased Plans ⇒ Long-term Master Plan 1 Background and Objectives 2 Socio-Economic Indicators 3 Transport Demand Forecast 4 Arterial Road Network Development Planning 5 Phased Development Planning 1.1 Background . Myanmar has abundant natural resources and great potentials. However, - Lack of road infrastructure - Higher transport costs . It is necessary to establish a comprehensive & long-term plan for arterial road network development for socio-economic development 1.2 Objectives . to set up an optimum transport system in order to stimulate regional socio-economic activities in Myanmar . to prepare medium- and long-term plans for arterial road network development 1) for accelerating economic growth and 2) for supporting efficient and systematic development of arterial road networks 2.1 Population A. Scenario Setup for Growth Rate of Total Population ▪ Scenario 1 : extrapolating the growth rate during1983~2014 ▪ Scenario 2 : reflecting life expectancy increase and birth rate decrease ▪ Scenario 3 : considering lower birth rates by national strategies B. Estimated Population by Scenario (Unit : Million) Year Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 2014 51.42 51.42 51.42 2020 55.30 55.23 54.91 2025 58.76 58.48 57.71 2030 62.43 61.77 60.35 2035 66.33 65.08 62.81 2040 70.48 68.40 65.03 ☞ Increase : 17million persons up to 2040 C. Future Population (Unit : 1,000 people) . Total Population Region & State Growth - 2014 : 51,419 ,000 Yangon 5,268 Mandalay 2,526 - 2040 : 68,404,000 4.9 m Shan 1,527 ( 16,985 ,000 ) Sagaing Bago 1,144 Shan Rakhine 1,101 Sagaing 891 Mandalay Naypyitaw 791 Rakhine Tanintharyi 785 5.5 m Ayeyarwady 783 Bago Mon 647 AyeyarwadyYangon Magway 548 Kachin 443 Kayin 346 Chin 105 Kayah 80 Total 16,985 2.2 Growth Domestic Products (GDP) A. GDP Trends in Other Countries (Constant Prices in 1970) . Most of Asian countries have recorded over 7.0% growth rates in GDP during 20 years’ economic growth period (except for Japan) (Unit : US$ Billion) Year Japan Korea Thailand Malaysia Indonesia China Viet Nam 1970 209 9 7 4 10 91 3 1975 261 14 10 6 14 121 3 1980 324 21 14 9 21 166 4 1985 399 33 19 12 28 277 6 1990 509 53 30 16 39 404 7 1995 546 78 45 26 57 721 10 2000 569 100 47 33 59 1,090 14 2005 604 125 61 41 74 1,737 21 2010 614 151 73 51 98 2,954 29 2012 623 160 78 57 111 3,478 33 ’70~’90 4.5% 9.4% 7.3% 7.7% 7.1% 7.7% 4.6% Growth ’90~’12 0.9% 5.1% 4.4% 5.8% 4.9% 10.3% 7.3% Rate ’70~’12 2.6% 7.1% 5.8% 6.7% 5.9% 9.1% 6.0% Source : http://data.un.org B. Economic Growth Scenario ▪ To reflect the targeted economic growth rates of NCDP & NTDP ▪ To consider GDP growth trends of other countries : 7.7% ~ 7.1% < Comparison with Other National Plans > Classification NCDP-MNPED1) NTDP – JICA2) Modified Growth Rate High Growth 8.4% 7.7% 8.0% Moderate Growth 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% Low Growth 5.67% 6.0% 6.2% Source 1 : The 2nd Myanmar Development Cooperation Forum, January 2014, MNPED Source 2 : The survey program for the National Transport Development Plan(final Draft), June 2014, JICA ▪ Targeted Economic Growth Rates : 7.2% per year 3.1 Transport Analysis Zone Myanmar Arterial Zoning Road Master Plan 4 Step 1) Trip Generation Modelling 2) Trip Distribution 3) Modal Choice 4) Traffic Assignment Myanmar National