Environmental RTDI Programme 2000–2006 CLIMATE CHANGE Scenarios & Impacts for Ireland (2000-LS-5.2.1-M1) Final Report Prepared for the Environmental Protection Agency by Department of Geography, National University of Ireland, Maynooth Authors: John Sweeney, Tony Brereton, Clare Byrne, Rosemary Charlton, Chris Emblow, Rowan Fealy, Nicholas Holden, Mike Jones, Alison Donnelly, Sonja Moore, Patrick Purser, Ken Byrne, Edward Farrell, Eleanor Mayes, Dan Minchin, Jim Wilson and John Wilson ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY An Ghníomhaireacht um Chaomhnú Comhshaoil PO Box 3000, Johnstown Castle, Co. Wexford, Ireland Telephone: +353-53-60600 Fax: +353-53-60699 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.epa.ie © Environmental Protection Agency 2003 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report has been prepared as part of the Environmental Research Technological Development and Innovation Programme under the Productive Sector Operational Programme 2000-2006. The programme is financed by the Irish Government under the National Development Plan 2000-2006. It is administered on behalf of the Department of the Environment and Local Government by the Environmental Protection Agency which has the statutory function of co-ordinating and promoting environmental research. DISCLAIMER Although every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the material contained in this publication, complete accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Neither the Environmental Protection Agency nor the author(s) accept any responsibility whatsoever for loss or damage occasioned or claimed to have been occasioned, in part or in full, as a consequence of any person acting, or refraining from acting, as a result of a matter contained in this publication. All or part of this publication may be reproduced without further permission, provided the source is acknowledged. ENVIRONMENTAL RTDI PROGRAMME 2000–2006 Published by the Environmental Protection Agency, Ireland PRINTED ON RECYCLED PAPER ISBN:1-84095-115-X Price: õ20 06/03/500 ii Details of Project Partners Dr John Sweeney Dr Rowan Fealy Department of Geography Department of Geography National University of Ireland, Maynooth National University of Ireland, Maynooth Maynooth Maynooth Co. Kildare Co. Kildare Ireland Ireland E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Dr. Nicholas M. Holden Dr. Anthony J. Brereton Department of Agricultural & Food Engineering Department of Agricultural & Food Engineering University College Dublin University College Dublin Earlsfort Terrace Earlsfort Terrace Dublin 2 Dublin 2 Ireland Ireland E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Dr Rosemary A. Charlton Ms Sonja Moore Department of Geography Department of Geography National University of Ireland, Maynooth National University of Ireland, Maynooth Maynooth Maynooth Co. Kildare Co. Kildare Ireland Ireland E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Mr Patrick M. Purser Dr Kenneth A. Byrne Purser Tarleton Russell Forest Ecosystem Research Group Forest Industry Consultancy, Management & Research Department of Environmental Resource Management 36 Fitzwilliam Square University College Dublin 2 Belfield, Dublin 4 Ireland Ireland E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Prof. Edward P. Farrell Dr Clare Byrne Forest Ecosystem Research Group Department of Botany Department of Environmental Resource Management Trinity College Dublin University College Dublin 2 Belfield, Dublin 4 Ireland Ireland E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Professor Michael Jones Dr Alison Donnelly Department of Botany Department of Botany Trinity College Dublin Trinity College Dublin Dublin 2 Dublin 2 Ireland Ireland E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] iii John Wilson Chris Emblow Dúchas The Heritage Service Ecological Consultancy Services Limited 7 Ely Place Unit B19, KCR Industrial Estate Dublin 2 Kimmage, Dublin 12 Ireland Ireland E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Dan Minchin Eleanor Mayes Marine Organism Investigations Ecological Consultant 3, Marina Village Wicklow Ballina, Killaloe Ireland Co Clare. Ireland E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Jim Wilson Department of Zoology Trinity College Dublin Dublin 2 Ireland E-mail: [email protected] iv Table of Contents Acknowledgements ii Disclaimer ii Details of Project Partners iii Executive Summary xi 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Climate Change: the International Background 1 1.2 Climate Change as the Climate Norm 3 1.3 Approaches to Assessing Climate Change Impacts in Ireland 3 References 3 2 Establishing Reference Climate Scenarios 5 2.1 Global Climate Models 5 2.2 Downscaling of Global Climate Models 6 2.3 Derivation of the Baseline Climatology 8 2.4 Generating Downscaled Scenarios 13 2.5 Climate Scenarios for Ireland 2055 and 2075 26 2.6 Scenario Data for Impact Assessment 31 Acknowledgements 31 References 32 3 The Impact of Climate Change on Irish Agriculture 33 3.1 Introduction 33 3.2 The Changing Agro–Climatology of Ireland 34 3.3 Background to Crop Production Simulations 45 3.3.1 Crop selection 45 3.3.2 The crop simulation models 45 3.3.3 The soil sub-model (DSSAT) 49 3.3.4 Daily weather data generation 50 3.3.5 Model operation: starting conditions and crop management 54 3.3.6 Baseline crop production data for model evaluation 55 3.4 Baseline and Future Crop Yields in Ireland 57 v 3.5 The Effect of Soil Type on Crop Yield with Climate Change 70 3.6 Discussion on the Implications of Change in Yield of Irish Crops 75 3.7 Conclusions 77 References 78 4 The Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Ireland 81 4.1 Introduction 81 4.1.1 Water resources in Ireland 81 4.1.2 Observed linkages between climate change and water resources 82 4.1.3 Predicting runoff under future climate change scenarios 82 4.1.4 Research outline 83 4.2 Hydrological Simulation 84 4.2.1 The HYSIM model 84 4.2.2 Data requirements and model outputs 85 4.3 HYSIM Parameterisation 85 4.3.1 Soil parameters 85 4.3.2 Land use and vegetation 85 4.3.3 Groundwater 87 4.3.4 Channel hydraulics 87 4.4 Input for Rainfall and Evaporation 88 4.5 Model Validation 88 4.5.1 Selection of catchments for validation 88 4.5.2 Results of HYSIM validation 89 4.6 Predicted Changes in Hydrology and Water Resources 90 4.6.1 Baseline simulation 90 4.6.2 Changes in runoff for 2041–2070 91 4.6.3 Changes in runoff for 2061–2090 93 4.6.4 Changes in storage 94 4.7 Implications of Climate Change for Future Water Supply and Water Resource Management 95 4.7.1 Water supply and water resource management 95 4.7.2 Water quality 96 4.7.3 Flood management 97 4.8 Conclusions 98 References 98 Appendix 4.1. HYSIM Parameters 100 vi 5 The Potential Impact of Climate Change on Irish Forestry 103 5.1 Introduction 103 5.2 Modelling Forest Growth 104 5.2.1 Static models 104 5.2.2 Dynamic models 105 5.2.3 Process-based models 105 5.3 Potential Primary Effects 105 5.3.1 Increased CO2 levels 105 5.3.2 Increased temperatures 106 5.3.3 Increased frequency of storms 108 5.3.4 Decreased rainfall 108 5.4 Potential Secondary Effects 108 5.4.1 Increased nutrient mineralisation 108 5.4.2 Forest pests and diseases 110 5.5 Interaction of Different Effects 111 5.6 Forest Management and Policy Implications 113 5.6.1 Species and provenance selection 113 5.6.2 Forest locations 115 5.6.3 Forest establishment and management 115 5.6.4 Harvesting and transport 115 5.6.5 Silvicultural systems 116 5.6.6 Forest protection and health 116 5.6.7 Carbon sequestration 117 5.6.8 Research and development 117 5.7 Concluding Remarks 118 References 118 6 Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity in Ireland 121 6.1 Introduction 121 6.2 Climate Change Impacts 121 6.3 Climate Change Impacts on Species 122 6.3.1 Introduction 122 6.3.2 Some projected distribution changes of Irish species 122 6.3.3 Some projected developmental and behavioural changes of species 123 6.4 Climate Change Impacts on Habitats 124 6.4.1 Introduction 124 vii 6.4.2 Coastal habitats 125 6.4.3 Semi-natural grasslands 126 6.4.4 Heaths and scrub 127 6.4.5 Peatlands 127 6.4.6 Rocky habitats and caves 128 6.4.7 Native woodlands 129 6.4.8 Freshwater habitats 129 6.5 Vulnerability of Key Species and Habitats 129 6.5.1 Introduction 129 6.5.2 Species and habitat selection 130 6.5.3 Climate zones 130 6.5.4 Changes in climate zone areas 130 6.5.5 Changes in location of climate zones 130 6.5.6 Species and habitat vulnerability 132 6.6 Conclusions 132 Acknowledgements 138 References 138 7 Climate Change and the Irish Marine Environment 141 7.0 Introduction 141 7.1 Scope of the Project 141 7.2 Implications for Marine Biodiversity 141 7.2.1 Biogeography 141 7.2.2 Marine birds 150 7.2.3 Exotic species 157 7.3 Implications for Fisheries and Aquaculture 170 7.3.1 Fisheries and seaweed harvesting 170 7.3.2 Seaweed harvesting 171 7.3.3 Aquaculture 174 7.4 Recommendations and Conclusions 177 7.4.1 Implications for marine biodiversity 177 7.4.2 Implications for fisheries and aquaculture 180 References 180 8 The Impacts of Climate Change on Sea Level and the Irish Coast 189 8.1 Introduction 189 8.2 Sea Level Fluctuations 189 viii 8.3 The Coastal Zone and Population Distributions 192 8.3.1 Physical characteristics 193 8.4 Dynamic Controls on the Coast 196 8.4.1 Waves 196 8.4.2 Tides 196 8.4.3 Surges 198 8.5 Mean Sea Level 198 8.6 Factors that Contribute to Mean Sea Level 201 8.6.1 Thermal expansion of the oceans 201 8.6.2 Contribution of small glaciers (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) 201 8.6.3 Contribution of ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica) 201 8.7 Projected Sea Level Rise 202 8.8 Evidence for Climate Change 204 8.9 Implications for Ireland 206 8.9.1 Coastal erosion 207 8.9.2 Coastal inundation – areas at risk 211 8.10 A Case Study Using LiDAR Data 215 8.11 Conclusions 218 8.12 Further Research 220 Acknowledgements 220 References 220 9 Conclusions 223 9.1 Introduction 223 9.2 The Observational Evidence and Future Climate Scenarios 223 9.3 Sectoral Impacts 224 9.3.1 Agriculture 224 9.3.2 Water resources 224 9.3.3 Forestry 225 9.3.4 Biodiversity 226 9.3.5 Marine environment 227 9.3.6 Sea-level rise 227 9.4 Policy Implications 228 9.4.1 The international arena 228 9.4.2 The domestic arena 228 References 229 ix Executive Summary International Context recent years.