SCCWRP #1171 OCS Study BOEM 2020-021 Cross-Shelf Habitat Suitability Modeling: Characterizing Potential Distributions of Deep-Sea Corals, Sponges, and Macrofauna Offshore of the US West Coast US Department of the Interior Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Pacific OCS Region OCS Study BOEM 2020-021 Cross-Shelf Habitat Suitability Modeling: Characterizing Potential Distributions of Deep-Sea Corals, Sponges, and Macrofauna Offshore of the US West Coast October 2020 Authors: Matthew Poti1,2, Sarah K. Henkel3, Joseph J. Bizzarro4, Thomas F. Hourigan5, M. Elizabeth Clarke6, Curt E. Whitmire7, Abigail Powell8, Mary M. Yoklavich4, Laurie Bauer1,2, Arliss J. Winship1,2, Michael Coyne1,2, David J. Gillett9, Lisa Gilbane10, John Christensen2, and Christopher F.G. Jeffrey1,2 1. CSS, Inc., 10301 Democracy Ln, Suite 300, Fairfax, VA 22030 2. National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Ocean Service, 1305 East West Hwy SSMC4, Silver Spring, MD 20910 3. Oregon State University, Hatfield Marine Science Center, 2030 Marine Science Drive, Newport, OR 97365 4. Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz & Fisheries Ecology Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center (SWFSC), NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), Santa Cruz, CA 95060 5. Deep Sea Coral Research & Technology Program, NOAA NMFS, 1315 East West Hwy, Silver Spring, MD 20910 6. Northwest Fisheries Science Center (NWFSC), NOAA NMFS, 2725 Montlake Blvd East, Seattle, WA 98112 7. Fishery Resource Analysis and Monitoring Division, NWFSC, NOAA NMFS, 99 Pacific St, Bldg 255-A, Monterey, CA 93940 8. Lynker Technologies under contract to the NWFSC, NOAA NMFS, 2725 Montlake Blvd East, Seattle, WA 98112 9. Southern California Coastal Water Research Project, 3535 Harbor Blvd, Suite 110, Costa Mesa, CA, 92626 10. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, 770 Paso Camarillo, Suite 102, Camarillo, CA 93010 Prepared under NCCOS IAA MOA-2016-055/10325, BOEM OCS Study 2020-021, and NCCOS BOEM IAA M16PG00014 By U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Ocean Service National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Marine Spatial Ecology Division 1305 East-West Hwy, SSMC-4, N/SCI-1 Silver Spring, MD 20910 US Department of the Interior Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Pacific OCS Region DISCLAIMER This study was funded, in part, by the US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), Environmental Studies Program, Washington, DC, through Interagency Agreement Number M16PG00014 with the US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, Silver Spring, MD. This report has been technically reviewed by BOEM, and it has been approved for publication. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as representing the opinions or policies of the US Government, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. REPORT AVAILABILITY To download a PDF file of this report, go to the US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Data and Information Systems webpage (http://www.boem.gov/Environmental-Studies- EnvData/), click on the link for the Environmental Studies Program Information System (ESPIS), and search on 2020-021. The report is also available at the National Technical Reports Library at https://ntrl.ntis.gov/NTRL/. CITATION Poti, M., S.K. Henkel, J.J. Bizzarro, T.F. Hourigan, M.E. Clarke, C.E. Whitmire, A. Powell, M.M. Yoklavich, L. Bauer, A.J. Winship, M. Coyne, D.J. Gillett, L. Gilbane, J. Christensen, and C.F.G. Jeffrey. 2020. Cross-Shelf Habitat Suitability Modeling: Characterizing Potential Distributions of Deep-Sea Corals, Sponges, and Macrofauna Offshore of the US West Coast. Camarillo (CA): US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. OCS Study BOEM 2020-021. 267 p. ABOUT THE COVER Cover photos: (Top Left) Stylaster californicus with a Blacksmith (Chromis punctipinnis) and many Squarespot (Sebastes hopkinsi) at 41 m depth on Farnsworth Bank. Credit: NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Advanced Survey Technologies Group (Top Right) Nutricola lordi. Credit: Sarah Henkel, Oregon State University (Middle Right) Alia gausapata. Credit: Sarah Henkel, Oregon State University (Bottom Right) Primnoa pacifica, Lophelia pertusa, and Desmophyllum at 278 m depth observed by the remotely operated vehicle ROPOS in 2008. Credit: NOAA Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary (Bottom Left) Magelona berkeleyi. Credit: Sarah Henkel, Oregon State University ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We dedicate this report to Brian Kinlan, our friend and colleague who passed away before this study was completed. This study began through a conversation Brian had with Lisa Gilbane at a conference in Oxnard, California in 2013. Brian had a vision for improving deep-sea coral modeling across all US waters, and we think this report is one step closer to that vision. We thank the many scientists who contributed their data, time, and expertise over the course of this study. Robert McGuinn (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information) provided assistance in using data from the NOAA National Database for Deep-Sea Corals and Sponges. Gregory Boland (BOEM), Peter Etnoyer (NOAA NCCOS), Meredith Everett (NOAA NWFSC), Samuel Georgian (Marine Conservation Institute), Enrique Salgado (NOAA NCCOS), and Brian Tissot (Humboldt State University) participated in a discussion of the available deep-sea coral and sponge data in our study area and the use of these data in species distribution models. John King (University of Rhode Island), Bridgette Lohrman (Environmental Protection Agency), and Walter Nelson (Environmental Protection Agency) participated in a discussion of the available macrofauna survey data in our study area and the use of these data in species distribution models. Guy Cochrane (United States Geological Survey), David Huff (NOAA NWFSC), and Chris Jenkins (University of Colorado) provided advice on the source data and methods used to develop environmental predictor variables depicting depth, seafloor topography, and seafloor substrate. Steven Bograd (NOAA SWFSC), Andrew Moore (University of California, Santa Cruz), Rachel Simons (University of California, Santa Barbara), Libe Washburn (University of California, Santa Barbara), Yizhen Li (CSS Inc. and NOAA NCCOS), Susan Zaleski (BOEM), and Brian Zelenke (formerly BOEM) provided advice on the source data and methods used to develop the oceanographic variables used in the models. Andrew Moore and Changming Dong (University of California, Los Angeles) shared outputs from a hindcast ocean circulation model for us to use in developing environmental predictor variables. Samuel Georgian, David Huff, Christopher Rooper (Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada), and James Thorson (NOAA Alaska Fisheries Science Center) reviewed early drafts of model outputs and modeling methods and offered suggestions for improvements. Thomas Laidig (NOAA SWFSC), Diana Watters (NOAA SWFSC), and Linda Kuhnz (Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute) provided data from recent visual surveys for our exploration of ground-truthing the deep-sea coral and sponge models. Heather Coleman (NOAA Deep Sea Coral Research & Technology Program) and Elizabeth Duncan (Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary) provided valuable advice and feedback throughout the study. Catherine Dunkel (BOEM), Peter Etnoyer, Matthew Kendall (NOAA NCCOS), Sarah Hile (CSS, Inc. and NOAA NCCOS), Thomas Laidig (NOAA SWFSC), Mark Mueller (BOEM), Timothy White (BOEM), and Susan Zaleski (BOEM) reviewed this report and provided helpful comments and suggestions. This study was funded by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management through Interagency Agreement Number M16PG00014 with the US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science. Matthew Poti, Laurie Bauer, Michael Coyne, Christopher Jeffrey, and Arliss Winship were supported by NOAA Contracts No. EA133C-17-BA-0062 with CSS, Inc. Contents List of Figures ................................................................................................................................................ iii List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................ xi List of Abbreviations and Acronyms ............................................................................................................. xii 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 1 2 Environmental Predictor Variables ........................................................................................................ 4 2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 4 2.2 Methods ......................................................................................................................................... 4 2.2.1 Study Area ............................................................................................................................. 4 2.2.2 Map Projection and Spatial Grid Resolution ........................................................................