UNISA The UPPER NORTH ISLAND STORY 2019 - 2020 UNI Growth Snapshot There were Hamilton house 17% price increase more cyclists in Auckland 38% from 2018 to 2019 from 2016 to 2019 Source: NZTA 2019 Source: QV 2019 From 1996 to 2019, Tauranga City had 81% growth Source: Tauranga District Council 3.1 million tonnes Tourism growth in the of cargo exported in 2019. Bay of Plenty was An increase of 13%, 63% the highest in the over 10 years Upper North Island Source: Northport 2019 Source: MBIE 2019 1 Upper North Island Story 2019 - 2020 UNISA CONTENTS 3 12 17 An introduction to the Our workforce Our economy Upper North Island story 7 13 18 The Upper North Island Our transport and Strategic importance is growing and changing infrastructure of working together 10 15 The Upper North Island Our natural is connected environment 11 16 Our homes Our response to a changing climate 2 Upper North Island Story 2019 - 2020 An introduction to the UPPER NORTH ISLAND STORY The Upper North Island Story is about growth, change and how important the connections between the regions and cities of the Upper North Island are to the success of New Zealand. This document is an update NORTHLAND to the first Upper North Island Story published in 2016. Since 2016, growth and change have continued and issues such as housing, infrastructure, natural environment and the changing climate have become even more POPULATION important. This document has been produced for the Upper North Island Strategic Alliance (UNISA) 166,000 179,076 UNISA was established in 2011. It is a collaboration of four GDP PER CAPITA regional/unitary councils(Northland, Auckland, Waikato and $34,825 $41,802 Bay of Plenty) and three city/district councils (Whangarei, NORTHLAND Hamilton and Tauranga). UNISA proactively plans and responds MEAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME to a range of strategic issues facing the upper North Island. $70,000 $85,500 The Upper North Island Story leads into and informs the AUCKLAND MEAN WEEKLY RENT following UNISA documents: $270 $383 • Upper North Island Strategic Alliance Value Proposition. WAIKATO EMPLOYMENT RATE • Upper North Island Strategic Alliance Work Programme. BAY OF PLENTY 57.1% 59.7% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 8.8% 6% 3 Upper North Island Story 2019 - 2020 UNISA The Upper North Island is diverse The Upper North Island varies between and within its regions. There are differences in our population, our economy and our communities. 2016-2017 2019-2020 AUCKLAND POPULATION 1,526,900 1,571,718 NORTHLAND GDP PER CAPITA GDP POPULATION $53,759 $64,222 166,000 179,076 MEAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME MHI GDP PER CAPITA $96,000 $117,500 MEAN WEEKLY RENT GDP $34,825 $41,802 RENT MEAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME $439 $559 EMPLOYMENT RATE MHI $70,000 $85,500 WORK MEAN WEEKLY RENT 64.7% 68.1% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RENT $270 $383 WORK EMPLOYMENT RATE 6.3% 4.1% 57.1% 59.7% WORK UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 8.8% 6% WORK WAIKATO POPULATION 430,800 458,202 BAY OF PLENTY POPULATION GDP PER CAPITA 282,300 308,499 $48,098 $51,450 GDP GDP PER CAPITA MEAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME $42,213 $52,249 GDP $76,400 $99,200 MHI MEAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME MEAN WEEKLY RENT $77,600 $99,600 MHI $284 $390 RENT MEAN WEEKLY RENT EMPLOYMENT RATE RENT 64.4% 69.3% WORK $290 $432 EMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WORK 6.2% 3.6% WORK 61.9% 65.9% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 6.4% 4.2% WORK Source: MBIE Regional Economic Activity Report 2019 4 Upper North Island Story 2019 - 2020 The Upper North Island is critical to a successful New Zealand Why is the Upper North Island important? UNI is the powerhouse of New Zealand • UNI GDP in 2018 was $146 billion, over half of the $220 billion New Zealand economy. • UNI population in 2018 was 2.64 million, over half of New Zealand’s total population. UNI infrastructure is vital to the success of New Zealand • 65 percent of goods by value within New Zealand move through the Upper North Island ports and Auckland International Airport. • UNI freight volumes are forecast to increase by 59 percent by 2042. UNI has a unique natural environment • Four of the UNI’s main industry sectors (forestry / wood processing / dairy / tourism) depend on the natural environment. • The UNI is home to some of NZ’s most significant natural assets such as our longest river, largest lake and all of New Zealand’s Kauri forests. KEY 1 City Snapshot NORTHLAND WHANGAREI North Port Rail Line An area comprising of 20% of State Highway 1 NZ’s land area, UNI has: State Highway 2 • 54% of NZ population AUCKLAND State Highway 3 • 50% of NZ houses Ports of Auckland • 54% of NZ GDP AUCKLAND • 52% of NZ Maori asset base 2 • 52% of all filled jobs in NZ TAURANGA • 50% of NZ freight movements (by Port of Tauranga weight) HAMILTON • 65% of NZ cargo by value (traded WAIKATO BAY OF through UNI ports) 3 PLENTY • 51% of NZ tourism spend (international visitors) • 71% of all international visitor arrivals 5 Upper North Island Story 2019 - 2020 UNISA UNI contributes the largest share of New Zealand’s GDP UNI GDP compared to NZ GDP $146 $270 billion billion Auckland contributes the largest share of the Upper North Islands GDP UNI GDP in 2015 (Billion) by Region 2016 - 2017 2019 - 2020 WAIKATO NORTHLAND WAIKATO NORTHLAND 20 BILLION 6 BILLION 22 BILLION 7 BILLION 17% 5% 15% 5% BAY OF PLENTY AUCKLAND BAY OF PLENTY AUCKLAND 11 BILLION 81 BILLION 15 BILLION 102 BILLION 9% 69% 10% 70% Source: Stats NZ (2019) 6 Upper North Island Story 2019 - 2020 The Upper North Island is GROWING AND CHANGING What is the Upper North Island Story? It is a story of growth and change that present significant challenges for our communities, our infrastructure and the natural environment. It also delivers opportunities for investment, job creation and economic development. Projected population 2018 2023 2033 UNI UNI UNI 54.4% 55.3% 56.8% of NZ population of NZ population of NZ population UPPER NORTH ISLAND UPPER NORTH ISLAND UPPER NORTH ISLAND 2.64 million 2.85 million 3.2 million NEW ZEALAND NEW ZEALAND NEW ZEALAND 4.86 million 5.15 million 5.59 million Source: Stats NZ (2019) The continued growth of the UNI means this area will remain a powerhouse for New Zealand for the foreseeable future. The scale of growth means the UNI will continue to have an ongoing agglomeration effect, attracting more people, businesses and institutions. 7 Upper North Island Story 2019 - 2020 UNISA Growth in population and the number of dwellings in UNI is outpacing the rest of New Zealand. Within the UNI, recent growth in the regions is higher than Auckland. Percentage change in population and change in total private dwellings between the 2013 and 2018 Census Population total private dwellings 20% 18.1% 15.2% 15% 13.5% 11% 10.8% 10% 8.1% 8.1% 7.9% 6.5% 6.2% 5% 0% Northland Auckland Waikato Bay of Plenty New Zealand Source: Stats NZ (2019) 8 Upper North Island Story 2019 - 2020 Average annual GDP growth per capita in the UNI continues to grow faster than the rest of New Zealand. Within the UNI strong growth is seen in Auckland, Bay of Plenty and Northland, compared to lower rates of growth in the Waikato. GDP per Capita (2015 - 2018) 2015 2016 2017 2018 35,844 38,059 Northland 40,405 41,802 56,942 59,990 Auckland 62,533 64,222 GDP 46,493 46,856 Waikato UNI GDP is 48,886 growing at 51,450 42,809 5% 45,651 Bay of Plenty 50,205 while 52,249 New Zealand GDP is only 45,522 growing at 47,639 UNI 50,507 3.5% 52,430 (2015-2018) 52,677 54,145 New Zealand 56,292 58,271 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 Average annual percentage change GDP per Capita (2015 - 2018) 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Northland Auckland Waikato Bay of Plenty UNI New Zealand Source: MBIE 2019 9 Upper North Island Story 2019 - 2020 UNISA The Upper North Island is CONNECTED The regions and cities of UNI depend on each other in a number of ways and share common opportunities and constraints. Together, they are important to the ongoing success of New Zealand. The Auckland Effect Growth pressures in Auckland have resulted in an ‘overspill’ of growth into surrounding regions. If needs are not being met in one location demand will shift to the surrounding region if the ‘push’ and ‘pull’ factors are great enough. The other regions of the Upper North Island share the challenge of providing for and responding to Auckland’s significant growth. Population 2018 Northland 179,076 Auckland 1,571,718 Waikato 458,202 Bay of Plenty 308,499 0 500,000 1,000,000 15,000,000 2,000,000 Source: Stats NZ 2019 Impact of Aucklands growth Opportunities • Based on recent trends, Auckland is likely to continue • Greater connectedness of the UNI through transport to be an attractive place for settlement for migrants projects such as the Auckland to Hamilton corridor to New Zealand, and growth from internal migration and investment in Northland rail. and natural increase (the number of births over • The majority of energy used in Auckland comes deaths) will continue from a distance, with petrol, diesel and jet fuel from • Despite Auckland's high amenity and liveability, Northland via the Refinery Auckland Pipeline and growth can have negative consequences: increased electricity via Transpower's national network.