Marine Oil Spill Risk Assessment 2015 Prepared by Navigatus Consulting for Maritime New Zealand 20 May 2015 This page is intentionally blank. MOSRA15 Final Report.docx Prepared by Navigatus Consulting Ltd for: Maritime New Zealand Navigatus Consulting Limited 347 Parnell Road PO Box 137249 Parnell, Auckland 1052 +64 9 377 4132 www.navigatusconsulting.com Quality Control Prepared by: Geraint Bermingham Reviewed by: Revision Date Authorised By Name Signature Initial Draft 15 March 2015 G. Bermingham Final Draft Rev 1.91 30 April 2015 G. Bermingham Final Report 20 May 2015 G. Bermingham i Navigatus Consulting for Maritime New Zealand This page is intentionally blank. MOSRA15 Final Report.docx Contents 1. Executive Summary .................................................................................................... 1 2. Background ................................................................................................................. 3 2.1 Project aim and deliverables ................................................................................. 3 2.2 Project history ........................................................................................................ 4 2.3 MOSRA15 ............................................................................................................. 5 2.4 MOSRA15 project approach ................................................................................. 5 3. Data sources, assumptions, and limitations ................................................................ 6 3.1 Event probability data sources .............................................................................. 6 3.2 Environmental data sources .................................................................................. 7 4. Analysis methodology ................................................................................................. 8 4.1 Risk determination ................................................................................................. 8 4.2 Model overview ..................................................................................................... 8 4.3 Key developments over MOSRA10 analysis ......................................................... 9 4.4 Spill likelihood at source ...................................................................................... 10 4.5 Oil dispersion from source ................................................................................... 13 4.6 Environmental consequence ............................................................................... 13 5. Framework for displaying risk profile ........................................................................ 17 5.1 Shoreline ............................................................................................................. 17 5.2 Open water .......................................................................................................... 17 5.3 Vessel information ............................................................................................... 19 6. Results ...................................................................................................................... 20 6.1 Type of results available ...................................................................................... 20 6.2 Sector analysis .................................................................................................... 21 6.3 Risk profiles ......................................................................................................... 24 6.4 Shoreline results comparison to MOSRA10 ........................................................ 28 6.5 Scenarios ............................................................................................................ 29 7. Closing ...................................................................................................................... 34 8. Bibliography .............................................................................................................. 35 Appendices Appendix A – Web based interface Appendix B – Categorisation of oil types within MOSRA15 model Appendix C – Wind, current, and temperature iii Navigatus Consulting for Maritime New Zealand Appendix D – Environmental value and impact Appendix E – Shoreline environmental ratings Appendix F – Oil spill probability profiles (high risk shoreline areas) MOSRA15 Final Report.docx 1. Executive Summary Maritime New Zealand (MNZ) periodically commissions a marine oil spill risk assessment to be undertaken. MNZ uses these risk assessments to guide the management of oil spill response planning. This report details the background, methodology, and results of the most recent marine oil spill risk assessment (MOSRA15). MOSRA15 was carried out by Navigatus Consulting and completed in April 2015. Key findings are presented in the form of map images, tables, and supporting explanations. MOSRA15 represents the latest evolution of efforts to understand the maritime oil spill risk profile, spanning from 1992 to the present. Each project undertaken has built upon the previous and, while being outwardly similar, MOSRA15 represents a significant advance on MOSRA10. For example, for the first time MOSRA provides an oil spill risk profile for offshore and vessel activity in the open water around New Zealand. MOSRA15 represents a natural update of information from the previous MOSRA10. The outputs of MOSRA15 are, in summary: u Tabular presentation of sector risk profile by vessel types showing % of total national oil spill risk; u Visualisations and listings of the overall national shoreline risk profile and environmental sensitivity; u Visualisations of the oil spill risk and environmental sensitivity to oil in the open water surrounding New Zealand (to ~200km from the mainland); u Graphical displays of oil spill probability for ‘high risk’ shoreline areas and ports; u Visualisations of the national shoreline navigational hazard profile and listings for each shoreline area; u Visualisations of relevant maritime activity around New Zealand; u A register of environmental and the associated value of features associated with each shoreline area; and u Visualisations and graphical display of a range of future scenarios associated with vessel trading and offshore exploration over a 5-year period. Visualisations of these outputs are presented in the form of images and tables in this report (See Section 6 for the most significant results) and via an interactive website at http://mosra15.navigatusconsulting.com . 1 Navigatus Consulting for Maritime New Zealand MOSRA15 has determined that the overall shoreline risk profile remains similar to that in MOSRA10. However, it is noted that: u There has been some limited change in the relative risk across maritime sectors. This can be explained in part by changes in activity since the 2005 -2009 dataset, as well as advances in modelling and analysis – specifically consideration of sea currents and open water ecological vulnerabilities; u The level of risk associated with tanker movement along the Northland east coast is rated as ‘High’, but the absolute level may not be as high as previously calculated. While this can be explained in part by some changes in activity, it is considered that the more advanced modelling of the effect of winds and currents accounts for most of the change seen; and u The Cook Strait area is rated higher than seen in MOSRA10. This can be explained by the more advanced modelling of wind and current. The MOSRA15 sector contribution results are shown in the table below: Sector Contributions Sector Shoreline Impact Basis Open Water Basis Foreign Tankers 60.6% 71.3% Domestic Tankers 19.6% 11.4% Foreign Passenger and Cargo 9.4% 12.7% Domestic Passenger and Cargo Vessels 9.4% 3.1% NZ Fishing Vessels 0.9% 1.5% Production Installations 0.03% 0.11% The analysis of four potential future scenarios suggests that the overall risk profile is fairly constant regardless of reasonably credible changes in vessel activity over time. The table below shows the change in overall risk level compared to the current situation (same risk measurement as used in sector analysis). Shoreline Impact Scenario Open Water Basis Basis Baseline (MOSRA15 results) -% -% 1: Increased vessel size 21% 21% 2: Increased oil production -0.3% 0.2% 3: Scenarios 1 and 2 together 21% 21% 4: GFC type event -13% -17% Scenario 1 (an increase in vessel size with a reduction in the number of transits) results in notably higher overall risk compared to the current situation. Scenario 2 (increase in oil production along with the addition of exploration wells) has little impact on overall risk of oil spill. Further analysis for Scenario 2 indicated that exploration activity risk equates to approximately 3% of current offshore risk (shoreline impact basis) and 33% of current offshore risk (open water impact basis). If in 5 years an event similar to the GFC occurred, the overall oil spill risk would decrease by between 10 and 20%. MOSRA15 Final Report.docx 2. Background 2.1 Project aim and deliverables The aim of the Marine Oil Spill Risk Assessment 2015 (MOSRA15) was to provide information and insights that will inform policy, enable development of a future-focused strategy, and support risk-based oil response planning by Maritime New Zealand (MNZ) and other stakeholders. The main objective of the MOSRA15 project undertaken by Navigatus Consulting for MNZ was the development of a risk model to map oil spill