INFORMATION TO USERS This was produced from a copy of a document sent to us for microfilming. While the most advanced technological means to photograph and reproduce this document have been used, the quality is heavily dependent upon the quality of the material submitted. The following explanation of techniques is provided to help you understand markings or notations which may appear on this reproduction. 1.The sign or “target” for pages apparently lacking from the document photographed is “ Missing Page(s)”. If it was possible to obtain the missing page(s) or section, they are spliced into the film along with adjacent pages. This may have necessitated cutting through an image and duplicating adjacent pages to assure you of complete continuity. 2. When an image on the film is obliterated with a round black mark it is an indication that the film inspector noticed either blurred copy because of movement during exposure, or duplicate copy. Unless we meant to delete copyrighted materials that should not have been filmed, you will find a good image of the page in the adjacent frame. If copyrighted materials were deleted you will find a target note listing the pages in the adjacent frame. 3. When a map, drawing or chart, etc., is part of the material being photo­ graphed the photographer has foliowed a definite method in “sectioning” the material. It is customary to begin filming at the upper ieft hand corner of a large sheet and to continue from left to right in equal sections with small overlaps. If necessary, sectioning is continued again—beginning below the first row and continuing on until complete. 4. For any illustrations that cannot be reproduced satisfactoriiy by xerography, photographic prints can be purchased at additional cost and tipped into your xerographic copy. Requests can be made to our Dissertations Customer Services Department. 5. Some pages in any document may have indistinct print. In all cases we have filmed the best available copy. Universi^ Micrdfilms International 300 N. ZEEB RD., ANN ARBOR, Ml 48106 8215796 Schumann, J. Paul MULTIPOLARITY AND EAST ASIA The University of Oklahoma Ph.D. 1982 University Microfilms I nternstionei300 N. Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, M I 48106 Copyright 1982 by Schumann, J. Paul All Rights Reserved THE UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA GRADUATE COLLEGE MULTIPOLARITY AND EAST ASIA A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE FACULTY in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY BY J. PAUL SCHUMANN Norman, Oklahoma 1982 I MULTIPOLARITY AND EAST ASIA APPROVEDn BY / DISSERTATION COMMITTEE For Kay and Robert, after eight long years. PREFACE This dissertation is concerned with systems theory as a method of analyzing international politics. Since World War II, many theories have been proposed for^^nalyzing ir^inational politics. Of the various proposed theories, systems theory is believed to provide the best means of analysis because it is both interdisciplinary and all-inclusive. That is, it uses data from many disciplines and can include studies of all types of political phenomena such as national interests, power, decision-making, and linkages between domestic and international politics. There are a number of contending theorists and analytical models within the area of systems theory itself. The particular model used in this dissertation will be based primarily upon that of Richard N. Rosecrance, but with some modifications. Rosecrance's model is believed to provide the best means of analysis of the global international system and its geographic subsystems for both the present and any historical time period. Further, Rosecrance's model is believed to provide the best basis for the prediction of the near-term future global international political system. It has been evident, since the late 1960's, that a new international system is evolving from the old bipolar one, and it is now possible to identify the essential actors of this future system. The purpose of this dissertation is to define and describe the essential components, forces, and characteristics of the emerging future global system through an anal­ ysis of the Far Eastern subsystem. With the exception of a federated Western Europe, all of the essential actors of the new system currently iv face each other In the Far East. Their past and future dealings with each other there will affect the functioning of the future global inter­ national system. Therefore it is believed that an analysis of the goals, capabilities, and problems of the essential actors within the Far East geographical subsystems, as well as an analysis of the methods which they devise to deal with each other, will provide clues concerning the makeup of the entire future international system. For the purposes of this dissertation, the Far Eastern subsystem will include the geographic portion of the Asian land mass from India's western border to the Pacific Ocean, as well as the island states of that ocean. Although India is technically located in South Asia, it cannot be oblivious to events in East Asia, and it is included for that reason. Two of the criticisms of international systems theory is that it has not been found useful either in explaining system change or in predicting specific future systems. It is hoped that the information provided in this dissertation will answer those criticisms. Whatever merit this dis­ sertation possesses is due largely to Professor Paul Tharp, the director of this dissertation, who gave unstintingly of his time over many years and two drafts. The author is also deeply grateful to Professor Donald Secrest for his clarification of controversial points of systems theory. The author’s appreciation extends also to Mr. Russell H. Gerbrick for his friendly cooperation and advice in the preparation of the first draft of this dissertation, and to Mrs. James 0. Payne for her aid in the prepar­ ation of the final product. V TABLE OF CONTENTS Page PREFACE ........................................................ iv LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS....................................... ix LIST OF TABLES............................................... ix Chapter I. A SYSTEM MODEL FOR THE ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS. 1 The East Asian Subsystem since 1945 .................... 1 The Tight Bipolar System, 1945-1955 .................. 1 The Loose Bipolar System, 1956-1962 .................. 4 The Emerging Multipolar System, 1963 to the Present . 6 System Analysis..................................... 10 The Essential Actors and Their InformationVariables. 25 System Structure................................... 28 System Capacity ...................................... 29 Actor Interaction................................. 32 Outputs........................................... 34 System Change ........................................ 35 A Theoretical Framework for Analysis............... 35 II. INFORMATION VARIABLES OF THE U.S. AND U.S.S.R............. 43 The U.S.............................................. 43 Elite Direction or Ethos.............................. 43 Control Factors Operating on the Elite................ 46 Quantity of Disposable Resources................... 50 U.S. Foreign Policy Assumptions, Goals, and Tactics . 52 The U.S.S.R.......................................... 55 Elite Direction or Ethos.............................. 55 Control Factors Operating on the Elite................ 61 Quantity of Disposable Resources................... 65 Soviet Foreign Policy Assumptions, Goals, and Tactics . 67 III. THE ACTOR INFORMATION VARIABLES OF CHINA, JAPAN, AND INDIA. 76 C h i n a ............................................... 76 Elite Direction or Ethos.............................. 76 Control Factors Operating on the.Elite................ 89 Quantity of Disposable Resources................... 96 Chinese Foreign Policy Assumptions, Goals, and Tactics. 100 J a p a n ................................................ 103 Elite Direction or Ethos................................ 103 Control Factors Operating on the.Elite.................. 110 vi Quantity of Disposable Resources...................... 116 Japanese Foreign Policy Assumptions, Goals, and Tactics. 120 I n d i a .................................................. 123 Elite Direction or Ethos.............................. 123 Control Factors Operating on the Elite................ 130 Quantity of Disposable Resources...................... 137 Indian Foreign Policy Assumptions, Goals, and Tactics . 142 IV. STRUCTURE AND CAPACITY OF THE EAST ASIAN SUBSYSTEM. 160 Subsystem Structure .................................... 160 Subsystem Stratification.............................. 160 Subsystem Polarity.................................... 163 Subsystem Distribution of P o w e r ...................... 163 Subsystem Homogeneity................................ 167 Subsystem Capacity and Change.......................... 169 Regulatory Forces .................................... 169 Environmental Constraints ............................ 171 V. ESSENTIAL ACTOR INTERACTION.............................. 176 Introduction............................................ 176 The U.S. and the U.S.S.R................................ 177 The Stalinist Period and U.S. Containment Policy. 177 The Containment Policy in Operation Prior to the Vietnam W a r ........................................ 180 The Vietnam War and the U.S. Guam Doctrine............ 184 Sino-Soviet Relations.................................. 193 The Stalinist Period; 1945-1952...................... 194 The Period of Partnership