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EUROPE Intolerance in Western Europe Analysis of trends and associated factors Jennifer Rubin, Jirka Taylor, Alexandra Pollitt, Joachim Krapels, Mafalda Pardal EUROPE Intolerance in Western Europe Analysis of trends and associated factors Jennifer Rubin, Jirka Taylor, Alexandra Pollitt, Joachim Krapels, Mafalda Pardal Supported by a grant from the Open Society Foundations The research described in this report was supported by a grant from the Open Society Foundations. RAND Europe is an independent, not-for-profit policy research organisation that aims to improve policy and decisionmaking for the public interest though research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark © Copyright 2014 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial pur- poses. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For informa- tion on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (www.rand.org/publications/permissions.html). RAND OFFICES SANTA MONICA, CA • WASHINGTON, DC PITTSBURGH, PA • NEW ORLEANS, LA • JACKSON, MS • BOSTON, MA DOHA, QA • CAMBRIDGE, UK • BRUSSELS, BE www.rand.org • www.rand.org/randeurope Preface RAND Europe was commissioned by the Open Society European Policy Institute to conduct a study exploring the empirical evidence on high-level trends in intolerance in Western Europe. The primary focus was on expressed intolerance of others on the grounds of race, religion or ethnicity. Our research approach comprised a literature review, analysis of European attitudinal data, and assessments of contextual trends in eight countries. This report sets out the study’s rationale, methodology and findings, from which we develop a set of policy considerations to encourage evidence-based discussion and decision- making among programme funders and policymakers. RAND Europe is an independent not-for-profit policy research organisation that aims to improve policy and decision making in the public interest, through research and analysis. RAND Europe’s clients include European governments, institutions, NGOs and firms with a need for rigorous, independent, multidisciplinary analysis. This report has been peer reviewed in accordance with RAND’s quality assurance standards. For more information about RAND Europe or this document, please contact: Jennifer Rubin RAND Europe Westbrook Centre Milton Road Cambridge CB4 1YG United Kingdom Tel. +44 (1223) 353 329 [email protected] iii Contents Preface ........................................................................................................................ iii Contents ....................................................................................................................... v Table of figures ...........................................................................................................vii Table of tables ............................................................................................................. ix Executive summary ...................................................................................................... xi Abbreviations .............................................................................................................. xv Acknowledgements ................................................................................................... xvii CHAPTER 1 Introduction and context ........................................................................ 1 1.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 Conceptualisation of intolerance and research questions ...................... 2 1.1.2 Perceived rising intolerance .................................................................. 3 1.1.3 Apparent rise in support for extremist and populist political parties in many countries ..................................................................... 4 1.1.4 Apparent rise in intolerant policies and behaviours ............................... 5 1.2 Research approach and scope ............................................................................. 6 1.2.1 Literature review .................................................................................. 7 1.2.2 Analysis of survey datasets .................................................................... 7 1.2.3 Country assessments ............................................................................ 8 1.2.4 Theoretical issues and strengths/limitations of data .............................. 9 CHAPTER 2 Analysis and findings – European survey datasets ................................. 11 2.1 Trends in intolerance....................................................................................... 11 2.1.1 Trends in expressed intolerance vary across countries and over time ................................................................................................... 11 2.1.2 Trends in expressed intolerance also vary towards different groups ................................................................................................ 12 2.2 Convergence / divergence across Western European countries ......................... 15 2.2.1 Opinions and attitudes among individual Western European countries have moved apart ................................................................ 15 CHAPTER 3 Analysis and findings – factors .............................................................. 17 3.1 Factors considered to be associated with intolerance ........................................ 19 3.1.1 Economic factors ............................................................................... 20 v Intolerance in Western Europe RAND Europe 3.1.2 Demographic factors .......................................................................... 23 3.1.3 Socio-political factors ......................................................................... 25 3.1.4 Cultural factors .................................................................................. 28 CHAPTER 4 Analysis and findings – country assessments ......................................... 33 4.1.1 Denmark ............................................................................................ 33 4.1.2 Finland .............................................................................................. 38 4.1.3 France ................................................................................................ 42 4.1.4 Germany ............................................................................................ 46 4.1.5 Italy ................................................................................................... 53 4.1.6 The Netherlands ................................................................................ 57 4.1.7 Spain .................................................................................................. 61 4.1.8 The United Kingdom ........................................................................ 65 CHAPTER 5 Conclusions and implications ............................................................... 71 5.1 Conclusions ..................................................................................................... 71 5.2 Emerging policy considerations........................................................................ 73 5.2.1 High-level policy considerations ......................................................... 73 5.2.2 Perspectives on targeted interventions ................................................ 78 5.3 Areas for further research ................................................................................. 81 REFERENCES .........................................................................................................