Scottish Parliament Elections: 2011 RESEARCH PAPER 11/41 24 May 2011 The SNP gained an overall majority in the Scottish Parliament in the elections on 5 May 2011. The paper provides data on voting trends and electoral turnout for constituencies, electoral regions, and for Scotland as a whole. This paper is a companion volume to Library Research Papers 11/40 National Assembly for Wales Elections: 5 May 2011; 11/42, Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: 5 May 2011; 11/43, Local Elections 2011; and 11/44, Alternative Vote referendum 5 May 2011. Mark Sandford Recent Research Papers 11/28 Police Reform and Social Responsibility Bill: Committee 24.03.11 Stage Report 11/29 Economic Indicators, April 2011 05.04.11 11/30 Direct taxes: rates and allowances 2011/12 06.04.11 11/31 Health and Social Care Bill: Committee Stage Report 06.04.11 11/32 Localism Bill: Committee Stage Report 12.04.11 11/33 Unemployment by Constituency, April 2011 14.04.11 11/34 London Olympic Games and Paralympic Games (Amendment) Bill 21.04.11 [Bill 165 of 2010-12] 11/35 Economic Indicators, May 2011 03.05.11 11/36 Energy Bill [HL] [Bill 167 of 2010-12] 04.05.11 11/37 Education Bill: Committee Stage Report 05.05.11 11/38 Social Indicators 06.05.11 11/39 Legislation (Territorial Extent) Bill: Committee Stage Report 11.05.11 Research Paper 11/41 Contributing Authors: Mark Sandford Jeremy Hardacre This information is provided to Members of Parliament in support of their parliamentary duties and is not intended to address the specific circumstances of any particular individual. It should not be relied upon as being up to date; the law or policies may have changed since it was last updated; and it should not be relied upon as legal or professional advice or as a substitute for it. A suitably qualified professional should be consulted if specific advice or information is required. This information is provided subject to our general terms and conditions which are available online or may be provided on request in hard copy. Authors are available to discuss the content of this briefing with Members and their staff, but not with the general public. We welcome comments on our papers; these should be e-mailed to [email protected]. ISSN 1368-8456 RESEARCH PAPER 11/41 Contents Summary 3 1 Introduction 4 1.1 The electoral system 4 1.2 The boundary review 5 1.3 Other elections 5 1.4 Candidates 5 2 The results 6 2.1 SNP 6 2.2 Labour 7 2.3 Conservative 7 2.4 Liberal Democrat 7 2.5 Others and independents 7 2.6 MSPs – women and minority ethnic 8 2.7 Turnout and spoilt ballots 8 2.8 Data sources 8 2.9 Map: Seat winners 9 2.10 Map: Turnout 9 3 Summary Results 10 3.1 Table 1: Scottish Parliament elections: 5 May 2011 10 3.2 Table 2: Previous Scottish Parliament elections 11 3.3 Map: Share of vote Conservative 12 3.4 Map: Share of vote Labour 12 3.5 Map: Share of vote Lib Democrat 13 3.6 Map: Share of vote SNP 13 4 Constituency results 14 4.1 Table 3: Constituency results – votes and turnout by constituency 14 4.2 Table 4: Constituency results – seats by majority (from highest to lowest percentage point majority) 16 4.3 Table 5: Constituency results – party share of vote by constituency, and majority 17 4.4 Table 6: Constituency results – notional change in party share of vote by constituency 19 4.5 Table 7: Constituency results – votes and shares by region and party 21 1 RESEARCH PAPER 11/41 5 Regional Results 5.1 Table 8: Regional ballot results – votes and turnout by region 21 5.2 Table 9: Regional ballot results – party share of vote by region 21 5.3 Table 10: Turnout and party share of vote in regional ballot, compared to constituency ballot, by region (% point difference) 22 5.4 Table 11: Seats won by seat type, party and region 22 6 Other figures 6.1 Table 12: Spoilt ballot papers by constituency 23 6.2 Table A1: Constituencies with highest and lowest turnout in each region 25 6.3 Table A2: Largest and smallest majorities by party 26 6.4 Table A3: Highest and lowest shares of the constituency vote by major party 27 6.5 Table A4: Scottish Parliament members elected, May 2011 28 2 RESEARCH PAPER 11/41 Summary • The SNP won an overall majority of seats (69 of 129) with 44.7% of the vote. Labour polled 29.0%, the Conservatives 13.1% and the Liberal Democrats 6.6%. 30 new SNP members were elected. • Labour has 37 MSPs, nine fewer than after the 2007 election; and seven fewer than if the 2007 election had been fought (notionally) on the 2011 boundaries. • The Liberal Democrats saw a reduction in their vote share from 13.7% to 6.6%, and a reduction in their number of seats from 16 to 5. They held on to two constituency seats, in Orkney and Shetland. • The Conservatives lost two seats compared to their actual 2007 performance, and were down by five seats compared to notional 2007 results. • As in 2007, three MSPs outside the four main parties were elected – two for the Green Party, and the independent MSP Margo MacDonald. • Turnout was down on 2007, falling from 51.7% to 50.3% in the constituency ballot and 52.4% to 50.4% in the regional ballot. • The number of women elected as MSPs rose, from 43 to 45. Two minority ethnic MSPs were elected (Humza Yousaf and Hanzala Malik in Glasgow), as was one visually impaired MSP (Dennis Robertson in Aberdeenshire West). Summary results 2007 2011 Votes (Constituency + Regional) Conservative 618,778 15.8% 522,619 13.1% Labour 1,243,789 31.8% 1,153,996 29.0% Liberal Democrat 556,883 14.3% 261,166 6.6% Scottish National Party 1,297,838 33.2% 1,779,336 44.7% Green 85,548 2.2% 86,939 2.2% Others 104,713 2.7% 176,102 4.4% Actual Notional Difference from 2007 2007 2007 2011 Actual Notional Seats Labour 46 44 37 -9 -7 Conservative 17 20 15 -2 -5 Liberal Democrat 16 17 5 -11 -12 SNP 47 46 69 22 23 Green 2 1 2 0 1 Other 1 1 1 0 0 Turnout - constituency vote 51.7% 50.3% Turnout - regional vote 52.4% 50.4% MSPs Women 43 33% 45 35% Men 86 67% 84 65% 3 RESEARCH PAPER 11/41 1 Introduction Elections to the Scottish Parliament were held on 5 May 2011. A UK-wide referendum on the use of the Alternative Vote (AV) for elections to the House of Commons was held on the same day.1 Counting of the Scottish Parliament votes began immediately after close of poll in all electoral regions. Returning officers had to begin counting the ballots for the AV referendum by 4pm on Friday 6 May, but, if counting of the Parliamentary elections was not complete, they could run the two counts alongside one another. Results became available during Friday 6 May. Several changes recommended by the Gould report, on the administration of the 2007 Scottish elections, had been put into place by the Scottish Parliament (Elections etc.) Order 20102. There were two ballot papers, one for the constituency vote, and one for the regional vote. This had been done in 1999 and 2003, but the two ballot papers had been combined in 2007. Electronic counting machines were not used in 2011, following technical problems with them in 2007. 1.1 The electoral system Scottish Parliament elections are conducted under the Additional Member System (AMS). Voters are given two ballots. One to elect 73 constituency Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) under the first-past-the-post system. The second is used to elect 56 additional MSPs, seven for each of eight regions. These members are elected so that the total representation from each electoral region, including those Members elected under first- past-the-post, corresponds more closely with the share of votes cast for each party in the electoral region. Candidates may stand in both the constituency and regional ballot: 171 individuals did so in 2011. If a candidate wins a constituency seat and a regional seat, they take the constituency seat and the regional seat is awarded to the next candidate in the regional list. In 2011, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and SNP placed most of their constituency candidates additionally on regional lists, but the Labour Party did this less. 1 House of Commons Library Research Paper 11/44 http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/RP11-44 2 SI 2010/2999 4 RESEARCH PAPER 11/41 1.2 The boundary review For the 2011 elections all but four of the constituency boundaries changed (three of these are the island constituencies, and the fourth is Cumbernauld and Kilsyth) following the first periodic review of Scottish Parliament boundaries. The regional constituency boundaries all changed, some minimally. The number of constituency seats within some of the regions also changed: Central Scotland and Glasgow each lost a constituency seat, whilst North-East Scotland and West Scotland gained one. In an analysis of this boundary review, Professor David Denver of the University of Lancaster, presents notional results for the new constituencies based on the actual results of the 2007 election.3 These enable results for individual constituencies in 2011 to be compared with the previous election. But the notional results for 2007 also suggest the overall party composition of the 2007 Scottish Parliament would have been slightly different had it been fought under the new areas.