Q1 2010 www.businessmonitor.com IRAN AUTOS REPort INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2014 ISSN 1748-9962 Published by Business Monitor International Ltd. Iran Autos Report Q1 2010 Including 5-year industry forecasts by BMI Part of BMI’s Industry Report & Forecasts Series Published by: Business Monitor International Publication date: December 2009 Business Monitor International © 2009 Business Monitor International. 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Iran Autos Report Q1 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 2 Iran Autos Report Q1 2010 CONTENTS Executive Summary .........................................................................................................................................5 SWOT Analysis.................................................................................................................................................7 Iran Autos Sector SWOT........................................................................................................................................................................................ 7 Iran Political Swot................................................................................................................................................................................................. 8 Iran Economic Swot.............................................................................................................................................................................................. 9 Iran Business Environment Swot ......................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Regional Overview .........................................................................................................................................11 Change Ahead For The GCC............................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Trouble In South Africa And Turkey, Uncertainty In Iran.................................................................................................................................... 14 Impact On Production ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 Business Environment Ratings ....................................................................................................................16 Table: Middle East And Africa Business Environment Ratings............................................................................................................................ 18 Iran – Business Environment Ratings .................................................................................................................................................................. 19 Limits Of Potential Returns.................................................................................................................................................................................. 19 Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns........................................................................................................................................................... 20 Industry Forecast Scenario...........................................................................................................................21 Production And Sales........................................................................................................................................................................................... 21 Table: Iran Autos Sector – Historical Data And Forecasts ................................................................................................................................. 21 Trade ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Table: Iran Autos Sector – Historical Data And Forecasts ................................................................................................................................. 23 Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario..............................................................................................................25 Table: Iran – Economic Activity 2007-2014 ........................................................................................................................................................ 28 Competitive Landscape .................................................................................................................................29 Financial Issues................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29 New Fuel Technologies........................................................................................................................................................................................ 30 Quality Control.................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32 Trade Sanctions And The Iranian Car Industry ................................................................................................................................................... 33 Privatisation ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 35 Industry Developments ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 36 IKCO’s Foreign Production ................................................................................................................................................................................ 38 Table: Samand’s Overseas Reach........................................................................................................................................................................ 40 Commercial Vehicles........................................................................................................................................................................................... 41 Table: Commercial Vehicle Production – Share Of Production By Segment And Manufacturer (%).................................................................. 42 Suppliers.............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 44 Regulation............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 44 Company Monitor...........................................................................................................................................47 Regional Case Study: Nissan Motor .................................................................................................................................................................... 47 Production ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47 Table: Nissan MEA Production Facilities ........................................................................................................................................................... 49 Sales ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................