Red Hot Hydropolitics: Human And State Security Implications Of Water Scarcity In Chile by JOSÉ PABLO ZAMBRANO RAMÍREZ Submitted in total fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Master of Arts April 2012 School of Social and Political Sciences The University of Melbourne 2 Abstract The relationship between environment and security is generally approached from either a state security framework, in so far environmental problems are a source of intra-state or inter-state violent conflict, or from a human security perspective, focusing on the impacts of these problems on people’s livelihoods. To date, that I am aware, there is no research that considers the effects of an environmental problem on these two dimensions of security simultaneously. This thesis bridges this gap by studying the security implications of water scarcity in Chile. It examines the two main drivers of water scarcity, droughts and socioeconomic development, to determine the exposure and vulnerability of Chile to this environmental problem. Based on the work of the Copenhagen School, it develops a framework that disaggregates and locates the impacts of droughts in analytical levels and security sectors. Additionally, it develops a typology of environment related problems as security issues, according to the sectors and analytical levels affected. Through the application of this framework and typology this research determines that in Chile water scarcity is a source of human insecurity, because it alters the livelihoods and the access to livelihood resources for a significant part of the population. It is also a source of strategic insecurity, as it jeopardizes the generation of energy, affecting the overall capabilities of the country, and thereby limiting the policy options of the authorities and the potential to give material responses to any given crisis. Finally, water scarcity is a source of strategic vulnerability, since a neighbouring country uses the subsequent energy insecurity as leverage in a long-lasting bilateral territorial dispute. This thesis uses the Regional Security Complex and the Hydropolitical Security Complex theories to assess the effects of water scarcity in the sub-system level. This research makes two relevant contributions to the security debate. First, an analytical framework that facilitates studying the security implications of droughts in any given nation-state. Second, it establishes a nexus between human and State security: if a non-traditional security problem, such as water scarcity, can become a source of State insecurity, then non-traditional security measures, originally aimed at improving human security, can be a source of State security. Although the context of this security analysis is Chile, a nation-state in which water is a relatively scarce resource and whose regional security complex is determined by patterns of enmity, two conditions that are not shared by every nation- state, the findings of this research are relevant nonetheless for the security debate, since it establishes that human and State security are not necessarily competing articulations, but two narratives with common fields in which they can strengthen each other. 3 4 Acknowledgements First and foremost, I want to thank my wife and family for their infinite love and support. My supervisor, David Mickler, for his guidance, assistance and patience; and Ralph Pettman, for simply being there. I would also like to thank Ernesto Brown and David Gutierrez for their hydrological assistance. 5 6 Table of contents Abstract 3 Acknowledgements 5 List of figures 9 List of tables 9 Introduction 11 Chapter 1: Research Framework 19 Methodology 19 Literature review 27 Analytical framework 45 Chapter 2: Internal Security Implications of Water Scarcity in Chile 59 Factors and conditions that determine the security vulnerabilities of Chile to the scarcity of water 60 Impacts of Drought in Chile by security sector 78 Strategic sector 85 Chapter 3: External Security Implications of Water Scarcity 97 South American regional security complex 98 Hydropolitics on a hot border 104 Energy (in)security 114 Chapter 4: Analysis 129 Security Implications of water scarcity in Chile 131 Non-traditional sources of traditional security 136 A securitization of water? 139 Conclusion 145 References 149 Appendix 167 7 8 List of Figures Figure 1: General map of Chile 17 Figure 2: Politico-Administrative division of Chile 61 Figure 3: Rainfall intensity and mean annual precipitation at different latitudes in Chile 67 Figure 4: Map of Lauca and Silala basins 106 Figure 5: Annual gas consumption in Chile 1965-2006 120 Figure 6: Installed capacity by energy source in SIC system 2009 134 Figure 7: Map of mean annual isohyets 168 List of Tables Table 1: Aspects of a transboundary basin that enhance resilience or increase vulnerability 36 Table 2: Matrix of analysis of environment-related problems as security issues 52 Table 3: Drought Impacts 55 Table 4: Maximum rainfall intensity in different stations in Chile. 66 Table 5: Main basins of Chile 69 Table 6: Aspects of a transboundary basin that increase vulnerability 111 Table 7: Presidential Energy Input 124 9 10 Introduction On February 27, 2010, an earthquake of 8.8 degrees on the Richter scale, the sixth strongest on record, shook the central and southern regions of Chile, followed by a tsunami. As a consequence of these two consecutive events roads and bridges were cut, public infrastructure destroyed, seaside towns and coastal cities ravaged by the ocean, and houses and buildings were either ruined or left uninhabitable. In the most affected areas communication systems –phone, Internet and civilian radio networks– collapsed and basic services such as water, electricity and gas were not regularized until weeks later. In the following days fear of shortages of basic supplies and collective panic led to theft and looting. As a result, the government declared a State of Catastrophe, which allowed him to take armed forces out to the streets to restore order. 2010 also marks the beginning of a drought that affects the country since then. After years of constant declines in rainfall, with deficits that vary between fifteen percent and fifty percent, by 2012 more than a 100 municipalities have been declared water and agricultural emergency zones. In the arid regions in the north there are towns that have less than 23.9 litres1 of water a day per person2, which has made agriculture and cattle herding, the main sources of livelihood, impossible. Due to the lack of precipitations, and the subsequent flow reduction during thaw, the reservoir levels are at historical lows. In February 2011 the government established a Decree of Energy Rationing, by which it took control over the electric generation system and enacted measures to alleviate the crisis, such as reducing the voltage. However, by February 2012 the water available in the reservoirs throughout the country amounted only to 28.9% of the total capacity. If the conditions persist, according to the authorities there are enough reserves to secure consumption of potable water during 2012. However, power cuts have not been ruled out. Due to its exceptionally tangible and graphic consequences, extreme geological events, such as the Chilean mega-earthquake and its following tsunami, are one of the most straightforward ways to link the environment to the security of a country and its population. But such natural hazards constitute exceptional events. They have a clear cause, very low probability of occurrence and they usually happen unexpectedly. Their 1 The daily average water consumption per capita in a city of a developed country is above 80 litres. 2 Que pasa, 2011 11 consequences have high social, political and economic impacts, which generate states of disorder and confusion relatively short in time and geographically delimited. In contrast, most contemporary global environmental problems, such as climate change or the depletion of the ozone layer, are not the result of a single cause, but of a multiplicity of factors, related in complex, systemic, non-linear ways. Environmental problems are not restricted by any political or geographical border, and their effects differ according to the particular characteristics of each region. Their most dangerous threat is not a sudden disruption of the established order, but the accumulated effect of long-term problems, of varied nature and magnitude, that gradually lessen the livelihoods of people and progressively reduce the range of effective policy responses of the competent authorities. This thesis examines the relationship between environment and security, studying the security implications of water scarcity in Chile. It focuses on the impacts of droughts, a major driver of water scarcity, on the livelihoods of the population, on how they limit normal functioning of the country, and the geopolitical consequences that affect the regional security complex. The study of water-related problems is relevant for security studies, because water is probably the only natural resource present in all aspects of human life: from subsistence to spiritual practices or aesthetics, from agricultural production to energy generation. Consequently, food security, health security, economic security and energy security are all related to water. From a human security perspective, the study of water-related problems is important because water is essential for personal and social welfare, for economic development and for the sustainability of ecosystems. Correspondingly, from a state security perspective water has unique characteristics that transform it into a strategic natural resource: it has no substitute, knows no political boundaries and its distribution vary in space and time. The study of the security implications of water scarcity is timely, first, because it is expected that global climate change is going to make droughts more severe, recurrent and extended, both in duration and in the area affected. According to the latest Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in recent decades around the globe there have been increases in average temperatures, longer and more intense droughts, as well as violent rains and floods.