PROPERTY INSIGHTS India Quarter 1, 2021 INDIA REAL ESTATE OVERVIEW Introduction Economy The Indian economy returned to growth in October - December 2020, following two consecutive quarters of contraction, thereby breaking out of the recession in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak. Economic activity recovered significantly in the quarter with improvement in business sentiments and growth in several high frequency indicators on the back of the festive period that led to a gradual recovery in consumer demand. Real GDP expanded by 0.4% in October – December 2020, as compared to the 7.5% contraction in the previous quarter with manufacturing and construction sectors posting healthy growth. The construction sector recorded an expansion of 6.2%, as compared to the 7.2% contraction in the previous quarter while manufacturing output grew by 1.6%, reversing the 1.5% decline in July – September 2020. Electricity, gas and water supply continued to do well with a 7.3% expansion while the agricultural sector remained a crucial support for the economy, recording a growth of 3.9%, faster than the 3.0% expansion in the previous quarter. Parts of the services sector witnessed a recovery, thereby adding to the economic momentum. For instance, the finance, real estate and professional services segment registered a growth of 6.6% as compared to a 9.5% contraction in the previous quarter. The trade, hotels, transport and communications segment declined by 7.7%, slower than the 15.3% contraction in July – September 2020. Private consumption declined by 2.4%, a marginal recovery over the 11.3% contraction in the previous quarter. Recovery in consumer sentiments is likely to be gradual and will depend on the employment and income outlook over the next couple of quarters. Investment demand, measured by gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), increased by 2.6% as compared to the 6.8% decline in the previous quarter, with capital spending by the government picking up sharply. Retail inflation slowed down to 4.6% in December, lower than 7.3% in September, due to the fall in food prices. Government policies, in particular, the Union Budget which hiked capital spending substantially with a greater focus on infrastructure investments, are likely to facilitate faster economic recovery and job creation. Incentives to promote domestic manufacturing and tax benefits for affordable housing, both from the demand and supply sides, will enable sustainable growth of the manufacturing and construction sectors. With vaccinations gaining momentum and better employment outlook, consumer sentiments are likely to show further improvement over the next few quarters. However, resurgence in COVID cases in major urban centres and imposition of localized restrictions might pose challenges for the economic recovery that is currently in progress. Introduction GDP Growth Rate & Repo Rate 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 Q2 Q3 -5.00% 2020 2020 2020 -10.00% -15.00% -20.00% -25.00% GDP Growth Repo rate Source: World Bank, RBI Note: GDP numbers for Q3 2020 correspond to the October - December quarter POLICY UPDATES Union budget incentivizes affordable and rental housing The Union Budget 2021-22 extended the tax deduction of INR 150,000 on the interest component of affordable housing loans to 31st March 2022. Apart from this announcement, which is expected to provide a demand stimulus to affordable housing, the Budget also sought to incentivize the supply of such projects by developers. As a result, the eligibility period for claiming tax holiday on profits from affordable housing projects has been extended by another year upto 31st March 2022. The Budget also provided tax exemption to Affordable Rental Housing Projects for urban migrants as a measure to enhance the supply of low-cost rental accommodation in major urban centres. This announcement follows the Affordable Rental Housing Complexes (ARHCs) scheme that was launched in July last year. RBI monetary policy review The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo and reverse repo rates unchanged at 4.0% and 3.35% respectively in the February policy review meeting. The MPC stated that the accommodative monetary policy stance will remain in place as long as necessary to enable durable economic growth and at the same time inflation will be monitored and ensured that it remains within the target range. Inflation declined sharply to 4.6% in December 2020 after staying elevated for the previous six months due to the fall in food prices. However, the monetary authority has said that higher industrial raw material prices could lead to a broad-based Introduction escalation in price levels going forward. The economic outlook has been brightened by rollout of the vaccination programme and improvement in high frequency indicators such as railway freight traffic, toll collection, e-way bills, steel consumption and GST collections. Manufacturing activity has been gaining momentum and the agricultural sector remains resilient. With activity picking up across both the manufacturing and services sectors, the Indian economy is expected to bounce back strongly with a growth expectation of 10.5% in FY 2021-22. Going forward, the policy announcements made in the Union Budget 2021-22 are expected to facilitate greater infrastructure investments with a favourable impact on jobs and economic growth. The surge in foreign direct investment in 2020 despite the impact of COVID-19 shows that India’s attractiveness as an investment destination remains intact. With the continuous improvement in the interest rate mechanism and fall in the home loan rates, residential real estate transactions will increase further over the next few quarters and facilitate faster recovery in the construction sector as well as the broader economy. Union Budget 2021-22: Setting the foundation for Long-term Growth After an unprecedented year which saw widespread economic disruption and a national public health emergency, the Indian economy is on its way to a strong recovery in 2021. Both the government as well as private agencies have forecasted double digit growth this year, which would make India the fastest growing major economy globally. Manufacturing and construction activity have normalized with large companies and developers moving ahead with pending projects. After a prolonged contraction, contact-intensive service sector industries – finance, real estate, professional services, for instance – have expanded in Q4 2020 though the hospitality sector remains susceptible to business uncertainty. Vaccinations have been gaining momentum, thereby instilling confidence in the ongoing recovery. Against this backdrop, the Union Budget was unveiled on 1st February with the government widely expected to announce measures to boost sustainable growth over the medium to long term. As expected, the Budget included a number of growth-oriented measures including a significant hike in capital spending, putting in place modalities for infrastructure financing, new health schemes, higher allocation for vaccines and the agricultural sector and relaxation in foreign direct investment (FDI) norms for specific sectors. Affordable and rental housing were incentivized as well. The government relaxed the fiscal deficit target for FY 2020-21 significantly to 9.5% of GDP followed by 6.8% of GDP in FY 2021-22 given the need to increase spending for strong economic recovery. Budget gives primacy to the infrastructure and healthcare sectors One of the key Budget announcements was related to the establishment of a Development Finance Institution (DFI) to fund infrastructure with INR 200 billion provided from the Budget. The Budget also hiked capital expenditure by 34.5% to INR 5.54 trillion, allowed debt financing for REITs and INvITs by foreign portfolio investors and provided tax benefits on zero coupon bonds issued by Infrastructure Debt Funds (IDFs), which are used for infrastructure financing. Relaxation of conditions for Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) and Pension Funds (PFs) to avail 100% tax exemption was another important initiative to facilitate infrastructure investment. The Budget increased outlays on a range of sectors including roads and highways, ports, shipping and urban infrastructure. For instance, INR 1082.3 billion was allocated as capital expenditure on roads and highways with economic corridors planned in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala and Assam. The government will also fund metro projects in Kochi, Chennai, Bengaluru, Nagpur and Nashik. Apart from the wide range of infrastructure-oriented initiatives, the Budget also announced the launch of Mega Investment Textile Parks to promote textile production and exports. The healthcare sector received special attention given the need to boost health infrastructure for better delivery of services. Total Budget outlay for Health and Well-Being was increased by 137% to INR 2238.5 billion in FY 2021-22 along with the launch of PM Atmanirbhar Swasth Bharat Yojana with an outlay of INR 641.8 billion over six years. Allocation of INR 350 billion for COVID-19 vaccines in FY 2021-22, critical care hospital blocks in 602 districts and 12 central institutions and launch of a voluntary Vehicle Scrapping Policy for old vehicles were other important initiatives. Among other key sectoral announcements, agricultural credit target was hiked to INR 16.5 trillion in FY 2021-22 and the FDI limit in insurance was raised from 49% to 74% to allow foreign ownership with safeguards. Start-ups were incentivized by extending the eligibility period to claim tax holiday to 31st March 2022. Union Budget 2021-22: Setting the foundation for Long-term Growth Focus on housing, infrastructure and banks will drive real estate growth Affordable housing received additional incentives both from the demand and supply sides in keeping with the broader government objective to provide housing for all citizens by 2022. For instance, the tax deduction of INR 150,000 on the interest component of loans given for affordable housing was extended to 31st March 2022.