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Libya Weekly Operational Preview April 25, 2021 Prepared by: Risk Analysis Team, Libya © 2021 GardaWorld Proprietary GardaWorld Proprietary GardaWorld 1 202 1 © Table of Contents Outlook .................................................................................................. 3 Short Term Outlook .............................................................................................................................. 3 Medium to Long Term Outlook ............................................................................................................. 3 Executive Summary ............................................................................... 3 Political Developments ......................................................................................................................... 3 Military Developments .......................................................................................................................... 4 Security Developments ......................................................................................................................... 4 International Security Developments .................................................................................................... 5 Coronavirus .......................................................................................................................................... 5 Migrant Crisis ........................................................................................................................................ 5 Oil & Gas .............................................................................................................................................. 5 Threat Matrix .......................................................................................... 5 Key Dates .............................................................................................. 6 Assessment ........................................................................................... 6 Political Developments ......................................................................................................................... 6 Oil & Gas .............................................................................................................................................. 6 Military Developments .......................................................................................................................... 6 International Security Developments .................................................................................................... 7 Coronavirus .......................................................................................................................................... 7 Regional Assessment ............................................................................ 7 Tripolitania Region ................................................................................................................................ 7 Cyrenaica Region ................................................................................................................................. 8 Fezzan Region ..................................................................................................................................... 9 Chad ..................................................................................................................................................... 9 Acronym List ........................................................................................ 11 GardaWorld .......................................................................................... 12 Information Services ........................................................................................................................... 12 Global Leader in Comprehensive Security and Risk Management.................................................... 12 This is an abridged version of the GardaWorld Weekly Libya .Xplored report. To subscribe to our full report or to request a quote for security services in Libya please contact Nicholas Bennett, Regional Director, Libya. GardaWorld Proprietary GardaWorld 1 202 2 © Outlook Short Term Outlook ▪ The political landscape in Libya continues to evolve at a pace. The new Presidential Council (PC) is driving forward, keen to realign international stakeholders and promote domestic reconciliation and reconstruction. The formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) is another major milestone in the country’s progress back to stability, but both the GNU and PC face a number of challenges in the coming months as the country prepares to move to elections in December. ▪ While the political environment is seeing significant movement, the military situation remains stagnant. The Sirte to Jufra frontline remains in situ, as do foreign fighters. The situation is calm, although there remains the potential for isolated incidents in response to political developments. The 5+5 Joint Military Commission continues its work, but it is unclear how much progress can be expected this year with the GNU restricted in how much it can meaningfully shape the security track. ▪ COVID-19 continues to affect Libya and travel in and out through Turkey and Tunisia although, at present, PCR testing is helping to keep travel corridors open. The country is expected to begin its delayed vaccination program and despite localized lockdowns and curfews, coronavirus continues to have little effect on normal daily life. ▪ Crime (including carjacking's, armed robberies, murders, and kidnappings) remains common in many areas of the country with perpetrators exploiting local gaps in security to carry out attacks. Crime reporting remains high across all regions. Medium to Long Term Outlook ▪ The successful implementation of the new PC and GNU are notable achievements, putting Libya back on a path to unity, but many threats to this progress remain. It's likely that the new government's honeymoon period is coming to an end as it begins to navigate the fragmented domestic landscape. In many respects, the GNU is being seen as a relatively weak body, but this could work in Libya’s favour, leaving the prime minister room to continue driving the process forward as he tries to build a broad support base across the various factions. The country is gearing up for elections in December 2021, an ambitious timeframe that will need various foundations to be laid in the months ahead by the new government. ▪ Islamic State continues to suffer attrition in Libya and remains mostly dormant from an operational perspective. However, political fragility will continue to present conditions in which the group could begin to reconstitute some of its capability, and it retains a presence in the country. Increasing political unity could prove a motivating factor for the group to try and destabilise Libya as it moves towards scheduled elections in December. Other terrorist factions also remain active with some representing a kidnap threat, especially in more remote areas, while some have exploited the last conflict with the LNA to embed themselves within security forces in Tripoli. Executive Summary Political Developments ▪ Prime Minister (GNU) Abdulhamid Dbeibah was scheduled to travel with the Government of National Unity (GNU) to Benghazi to hold a cabinet meeting in Boatni at 1300hrs on April 26. There have been calls for a protest at Benina Airport in Benghazi over the visit. ▪ The House of Representatives (HoR) held a discussion on the draft budget on April 19, voting to send the draft back to the GNU for revision. The GNU has ten days to respond with a redrafted budget to the HoR. The HoR has revised the final total downwards. ▪ Rome has been busy this week as it looks to establish its relationship with the new government. The Italian Interior Minister, Luciana Lamorgese, met with President of the Presidential Council GardaWorld Proprietary GardaWorld 1 202 3 © (PC), Mohamed Menfi, in Tripoli to “reaffirm the significance of bilateral relations between Rome and Tripoli in all fields.” The Foreign Minister (GNU) Najla Al-Mangoush also travelled to Rome this week where she discussed various infrastructure projects with her comments on the withdrawal of Turkish forces drawing criticism from the Justice and Construction Party. ▪ Several MoUs in the fields of electricity, communications, infrastructure, technical cooperation, investments, transport, health, and energy were signed on April 20 during a visit by Egyptian Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouly to Tripoli. The meeting also discussed the ongoing work to reopen the Egyptian Embassy and the reopening of sea and air links between the two nations. Madbouly used the trip to invited Prime Minister (GNU) Abdulhamid Dbeibah to visit Egypt. ▪ US Ambassador Norland met Tebu Congress President, Issa Abdul Majeed Mansour, on April 20 in Tunis. Mansour described “alarming efforts by certain international Libyan elements as well as external forces such as Wagner to support military operations against Chad from Libyan soil.” ▪ Prime Minister (GNU) Abdulhamid Dbeibah has issued an order relieving all ministerial undersecretaries assigned by the former GNA, and any other previous government, of their duties. Military Developments ▪ The Libyan National Army (LNA) mobilized forces to the Chadian border this week following orders from the HoR and GNU. The LNA is conducting ground and air operations along the border areas as concerns grow over the situation in Chad and the activities