A STRATEGIC VISION FOR SPAIN IN ASIA 2018-2022 -).)34%2)/ $%!35.4/3%84%2)/2%3 9$%#//0%2!#). GOBIERNO MINISTERIO DE ESPAÑA DE ASUNTOS EXTERIORES Y DE COOPERACIÓN -).)34%2)/ $%!35.4/3%84%2)/2%3 9$%#//0%2!#). www.exteriores.gob.es -).)34%2)/ $%!35.4/3%84%2)/2%3 9$%#//0%2!#). A STRATEGIC VISION FOR SPAIN IN ASIA 2018-2022 GOBIERNO MINISTERIO OFICINA DE DE ESPAÑA DE ASUNTOS EXTERIORES INFORMACIÓN Y DE COOPERACIÓN DIPLOMÁTICA February 2018 NIPO line: 501-18-013-3 / NIPO paper: 501-18-012-8 Legal registry: M-9853-2018 Design and imprint: Dirección General de Comunicación e Información Diplomática Official imprints general catalogue of the Spanish government: https:// publicacionesoficiales.boe.es This leaflet has been printed on chorine free recycled paper according to environmental criteria for public contracts. www.exteriores.gob.es 5 1 KEY MESSAGES 1 A strong presence in Asia is a continual goal due to the demographic importance of the continent, its economic dynamism and its position as a new global centre of power. 2 Spain has reduced its disadvantage in terms of its presence in Asia, but still needs a carefully selected set of goals and greater resources, both in Spain and in the region, to seize the opportunities it offers. 6 4 Being part of the European Union is an advantage in terms of influence in Asia; as a result, Spain is a more active participant in the CFSP towards Asia, based on fundamentally shared strategic interests. 3 Economic opportunities in Asia could contribute to a shift in Spain’s production model towards segments with more added value. 6 In this time of re- examination of the globalization model and of a rise in neo-protectionist movements, Spain and the 5 EU have a great opportunity Asia is the arena in which the new global “great game” will play to lead constructive out, and where the coming century’s balance of power will be globalization in Asia; an determined. The EU and Spain must be proactive in this arena, open model, but one that to avoid being marginalized in the new world order that is being establishes a playing field shaped. that benefits everyone. 7 7 Asia is a world-leading hub for science, technology and innovation whose global influence will grow in the coming years. Spain must establish an ever closer partnership with Asia’s key science and innovation hubs, to improve how we exchange and pool our knowledge. 8 The conflicts and tension that may arise as a result of Asia’s ascendancy could pose a threat to the global economy; we must therefore closely monitor these issues and it would be advisable to make active contributions to the EU’s positions. 9 Human rights, the rule of law, and corporate social responsibility must be incorporated into bilateral relations with Asian countries in a more systematic manner, as these relationships mature and expand. 10 Civil society networks, interest in Spain’s language and culture, and Spain’s appeal to tourists must all be leveraged and promoted as key tools to raise the profile of our country among the emerging Asian middle classes. 8 2 BACKGROUND This report is the result of critical To prepare the report, a wide-ran- analysis performed by the Ministry ging study has been performed of the of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation factors that may positively or nega- and consultations with the Ministry tively affect attainment of the goal, of the Presidency and for Territo- as regards both Spain (strengths rial Administrations, the Ministry and weaknesses) and the context in of Defence, the Ministry of Energy, which our policy towards Asia is de- Tourism and the Digital Agenda, the veloped (opportunities and threats). Ministry of Education, Culture and Sport, the Ministry of Employment When formulating the recommenda- and Social Security, and the Ministry tions, a moderate level of specificity of the Economy, Industry and Com- has been employed, as is appropriate petitiveness. The aim of this process to the scope of this exercise. was to propose measures that favour Spain’s presence in Asia in the 2018- 2022 period, as part of the 2014 Fore- ign Action Strategy. 9 3 ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS THAT DETERMINE SPAIN’S INFLUENCE 3.1. OBJECTIVE to produce 43% in 2020 and 52% in security architecture that is still taking CONDITIONS IN ASIA 2050 (figures 1 and 2). shape, and which is not sufficient to avert these conflicts and this tension, Growth and conflict A large-scale “middle-class revolu- which are multifarious and each of tion” is occurring in Asia, affecting which poses different challenges. The Asia is a diverse continent, with a billions of people, whose purchasing reshaping of the global role of many multiplicity of levels of economic power and financial and social capa- Asian powers, sometimes assertively, development, cultural traditions and city are increasing rapidly. It has been together with the unresolved legacy socio-political models. The key fea- calculated (see figure 3), that from of the Cold War, together form an tures of these models are: their con- 2000 to 2025 Asia’s middle class will encumbrance that hangs over the siderable demographic weight, their grow by more than 2.65 billion people, prospects of regional and global stabi- notable economic dynamism, and while the most disadvantaged in the lity. Nationalist discourse as a means their growing geopolitical tension. Po- continent will decline by approxi- of advancing political legitimacy also, pulation growth and the inclusion of mately 2 billion, making the region a paradoxically, offsets the tendency millions of people into production ac- clear protagonist of this major global towards integration that ought to be tivity, consumption and the networks shift. Due to both its immense size and natural in economies such as those in of the world economy are probably the its dynamism, Asia is full of promi- Asia, which are increasingly interde- most striking case of the shift in global se, and no country in the world can pendent. Finally, the rapid growth in power—from the Western world to allow itself to miss the opportunities Asia is having a huge impact on the emerging countries—since the end of it offers, if they intend to play some environment, and one that trans- the 19th century. Asia is a region that kind of role in the course the modern cends the borders of the countries in contains 54% of the global population world takes. question. and 46% of the world’s urban popula- tion; in 2017, it generated approxima- Asia is also a continent of frequent tely 30% of the global GDP, and is set conflict and tension, with a regional 10 REGIONAL % CHANGE, 2015-2050 FORECAST Africa 108 Oceania 43,9 Latin America & the Caribbean 23,6 North America 21 Asia GRAPHIC 1 -4,3 Europe The world's population TOTAL POPULATION, BN 2015 7,3 Source: NNUU, The Economist Forecast 2050 9,7 Forecast 2100 11 52% 40% 28% GRAPHIC 2 18% Asia’s share 15% of world GDP, 1960-2050 1960 1980 2010 2030 2050 Source: The Asian Development Bank CHANGE OF POPULATION (MN) BY GDP PER CAPITA AND REGION (2000 A 2015F) 3.000 Affluent High Middle Class GRAPHIC 3 2.500 Medium Middle Class Low Middle Class Forecast growth 2.000 Poor an Low income Total in the middle class 2000-2025 1.500 1.000 1.001 659 Source: BBVA Research 500 165 131 -6 > Medium-high middle classes and 0 affluent segments will increase Developed Africa Latam Emerging from 24% in 2000 to 67% in 2025 in -500 Europe Emerging Countries -1.000 > Emerging Asia is the largest -1.500 contributor to this reshaping of the world's income distribution with a new -2.000 middle class of 2658 min living there Emerging Asia > The share of the wealthier segments is on the rise in Africa, Latin America and Emerging Europe 11 3.2. SPAIN’S POSITION such as Casa Asia have played a key - Promoting defence diplomacy role in raising awareness domesti- - Development cooperation and hu- The Foreign Action Strategy descri- cally. Furthermore, the commitment manitarian assistance bes Spain as an advanced and plural we have maintained to Afghanistan - Further developing institutions for democracy; an open and diverse eco- through missions to support security public diplomacy (Casa Asia), educa- nomy, which is dependent on foreign and rebuilding have helped to improve tional and cultural diplomacy (Minis- trade for natural resources and energy, our image internationally and expand try of Education, Culture and Sport; with some cutting-edge and globalized beyond our traditional scope in se- Instituto Cervantes; Spanish Cultural sectors; a plural society, but one that curity and development cooperation. Action), economic diplomacy (regular is ageing, and a powerhouse in culture Lastly, the success of Spanish compa- visits by the High Commissioner for and language. Internationally, we are nies, especially in the infrastructure, Marca España, institutional visits by an active member of the EU and of the alternative energy and defence sectors, the State Secretariat for Trade, and transatlantic community; we have very has cultivated a positive image of our ICEX activities) strong links with Ibero-America and country’s technological and economic - Fostering civil society initiatives a closeness with Africa; and we are potential. (Council Foundations) and business committed to multilateralism as a tool organizations (Confederation of to achieve the major global objectives. Employers and Industries of Spain, 3.3. FOREIGN POLICY AND Spanish Chamber of Commerce) In its effort to strengthen its posi- ACTION TOWARDS ASIA tion in Asia, Spain aims to leverage All of these measures represent pro- its strengths to take a more effective Asia as a foreign policy objective.