POPULATION GROWTH AND SOCIOECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: A CASE STUDY OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN TAIWAN Kao-Chiao Hsieh A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate College of Bowling Green State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY June 1976 ii ABSTRACT Some of the developing countries have experienced a modernization of their demographic structure as their economies have undergone a partial transformation from an agrarian to an urban state. Will this demographic transition follow the his­ torical transition experienced by the developed countries? This study seeks to provide a partial answer to this question through a case study of the demographic transition in Taiwan. The aggregate data for Taiwan used in the study were collected for the years 1949-1972. The statistical analysis was carried out both for the total time span covered by the study, and separately for the initial period of development (1949-60) and the transitional period of the society (1961-72). Principle component factor analysis was used to produce a composite index for societal development, and the relationships between socioeconomic development and mortality and fertility trends were analyzed through correlation techniques and mul­ tiple regression. It was found that the demographic transition in Taiwan was closely related to. the level of socioeconomic development. In agrarian Taiwan, mortality and fertility were at relatively high levels. As agricultural-industrial development occurred, mortality started to decline; but fertility rose slightly and remained at a fairly high level. During the period of socio­ economic development, mortality continued to decline, but slowed down in the late period of transition when fertility began to iii decline at an accelerated pace. Rising agricultural production and incomes were the most salient factors in the reduction of mortality, although other factors such as increasing physical mobility and education have created a favourable condition for mortality decline. The increase in income and the decline in overall mortality and infant mortality, as well as the shift from an agricultural to a non-agricultural labor force were the most significant factors in the reduction of fertility. Again, however, other factors such as increased education and mobility, and expanding employ- z ment opportunities for women created a favourable setting for a decline in fertility. At the same time, socioeconomic develop­ ment created conditions favourable for changes in attitudes toward age at marriage, abortion and contraception, all of them rein­ forced the fertility decline. In contrast.to the European pattern of demographic transition, Taiwan experienced a higher level of fertility and mortality at the outset, a more rapid pace of demographic and socioeconomic development, and the active intervention of the government. However, the general relation between the level of mortality and fertility and socioeconomic development was the same. This suggests that the general propositions of trans­ ition theory appear sound, but that the timing and pace of fertility decline will vary with the level of development, socio-cultural background, and the extent of government interest. IV Acknowledgments As is true with all studies of its kind, the present undertaking could not have been carried out without the help and cooperation of a great many people. First of all, I am indebted to United States Educational Foundation in the Republic of China for awarding me a Fulbright-Hays Fellowship during the academic years, 1973-1976. The availability of these funds made it possible for me to come to the United States, and it enabled me to devote full attention to my studies and research. My appreciation extends to the several members of the Department of Sociology for the help and encouragement offered me during the entire course of my study at Bowling Green State University. I am especially indebted to Professor Edward G. Stockwell, who was my constant advisor throughout the period of study and research, and who guided the final preparation of the manuscript from beginning to end. Without his helpful comments and constructive criticism my task would have been much more difficult. I am also grateful to Professors H. Theodore Groat, Joseph B. Perry, Meredith D. Pugh and Bruce W. Smith, the latter of the Department of Geography, for reading the completed manuscript and offering many valuable suggestions for its improvement. Needless to say, final responsibility for any errors or inadequacies in the text rests solely with the author. A special acknowledgment is due my wife, Su-Hua Huang, V who, in addition to collecting data from Taiwan for me, took the family responsibilities which relieved me of the financial burden of supporting a family. J 7/ 77/ vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Page INTRODUCTION .............................................. 1 The problem of population growth....................... 2 Taiwan as a unit of study..............................5 Methods and data........................................6 Purpose of the study...................................12 Plan of presentation...................................13 THE THEORY OF POPULATION GROWTH............................ 15 Theories of population growth........................ 16 Population and resource.......................... 16 Population and social structure. ................ 21 Population and economic progress................ 26 Population and the transformation of society: the demographic transition...................... 29 A re-examination of demographic transition theory . .33 Rural-agrarian society—high growth potential populations............................ 35 Urban-industrial society--incipient decline populations.............................. 37 The developing society—populations of transition growth.............................40 TAIWAN'S SOCIETY: ORGANIZATION AND CHANGE................... 53 Geography, history and people.........................54 Characteristics of the traditionals ociety..............58 Taiwan's development under Japanese rule, 1895-1945 ............................................. 59 Economic development .......................... Bowling 6rw Vll Promotion of a public educational system .... 61 The improvement of sanitary facility .......... 62 Transportation and communication facilities. 63 Chinese social organization......................64 Taiwan's development after 1945 .................... 65 Educational development and reform ........... 65 Land reform......................................66 Development plans................................68 Assistance program and foreign investment. ... 69 Social effects of economic development ........ 70 Taiwan in transition. .............................. 72 Summary and conclusion. ............................ 84 THE PATTERN AND PROGRESS OF POPULATION GROWTH............ 87 Population growth in Taiwan ........................ 87 The trends of population growth................. 88 Source of population growth......................90 Changes in fertility and mortality ............ 92 Balance between fertility and mortality........ 100 Population growth and societal transformation . .103 The agrarian period.............................104 The period of socioeconomic development........ 110 Summary and conclusions '.............................115 THE DYNAMIC PROCESS OF FERTILITY AND MORTALITY DECLINE.........................................117 Data and methods.....................................118 VITI Levels of societal development and the demographic transition ............................ 126 Economic and social causes of fertility and mortality decline. ... .................... 133 Mortality......................................135 Infant mortality................................139 Fertility......................................144 Lagged effect of selected socioeconomic indicators on the crude birth rate .................. 158 Intermediate variables in fertility decline...........161 Summary.............................................. 174 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ................................ 178 Summary of major findings and policy implication ................................ 179 Relevance of transition theory to demographic change in Taiwan ...................... 183 Policy implications for the devel'oping countries.............................. 188 Evaluation and suggestions for further research............................ .. 191 BIBLIOGRAPHY 193 IX LIST OF TABLES TABLE Page 3-1 Changing pattern of net domestic production, Taiwan, 1951-1973 ................. ................ 74 3-2A Trends in selected indexes of socioeconomic development, Taiwan, 1946-1973...................... 76 3-2B Trends in selected indexes of socioeconomic development, Taiwan, 1946-1973...................... 78 3- 3 Trends in selected indexes of family life, Taiwan, 1946-1973 .................................. 82 4- 1 Population size and annual growth rates: Taiwan, 1905-1972 .................................. 89 4-2 Components of population growth: Taiwan, 1906-1972 ........ ........................ 91 4-3 Vital rate trends in Taiwan, 1906-1972.............. 94 4-4 Age-specific death rate trends in Taiwan, 1906-1972 .......................................... 96 4- 5 Trends in age-specific birth rates: Taiwan, 1940-1972 .................................. 99 5- 1 Trends in selected indexes of socioeconomic development: Taiwan, 1949-1972...................... 124 5-2 . Intercorrelations of