Elections for Peace An Analysis of Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center’s Election Mediation in the 1990 Nicaraguan and 2006 Palestinian Elections Magnus Garder Evensen A Thesis Presented to the Department of Literature, Area Studies and European Languages University of Oslo in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the MA Degree Spring 2007 Chapter 1: Introduction........................................................................................................... 4 1.1 Small Actors, Big Possibilities?......................................................................................... 4 1.2 The Democratic Peace Theory .......................................................................................... 6 1.3 Hypothesis and Questions.................................................................................................. 7 1.4 Approach............................................................................................................................. 7 1.5 Conditions ........................................................................................................................... 8 1.6 Material ............................................................................................................................... 9 1.7 Structure of Thesis ........................................................................................................... 10 Chapter 2: Theoretical Foundations .................................................................................... 12 2.0 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 12 2.1 The Mission of the Carter Center................................................................................... 12 2.2 Theories of International Relations................................................................................ 18 2.2.1 Realism and Liberalism............................................................................................... 18 2.2.2 Idealism ....................................................................................................................... 19 2.2.3 The Democratic Peace................................................................................................. 22 2.2.4 Critique of the Democratic Peace Theory................................................................... 26 2.3 Conclusion......................................................................................................................... 27 Chapter 3: A More Democratic Nicaragua.......................................................................... 28 3.0 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 28 3.1 Context .............................................................................................................................. 28 3.2 The Goals of the Observation Mission ........................................................................... 29 3.3 Waging Peace through Election Mediation ................................................................... 29 3.3.1 Assuring Foundations for Elections ............................................................................ 30 3.3.2 Election Day................................................................................................................ 35 3.3.3 Assuring the Results.................................................................................................... 37 3.3.4 Meeting Goals? ........................................................................................................... 37 3.4 Conditions that can explain the Delegation’s Success................................................... 38 3.4.1 The Role of the OAS and the UN ............................................................................... 38 3.4.2 The Reputation of a Former President ........................................................................ 40 3.4.3 Regional Involvement ................................................................................................. 42 3.4.4 The Presidency of George Herbert Walker Bush........................................................ 44 3.5 The Influence of the Four Conditions ............................................................................ 49 Chapter 4: Prospects for a Palestinian Democracy............................................................. 51 4.0 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 51 4.1 The Geopolitical and Historical Context........................................................................ 51 4.1.1 The Two Major Parties................................................................................................ 54 4.2 The Goals of the Center’s Involvement.......................................................................... 56 4.3 The Election: What did the Observers do?.................................................................... 57 4.3.1 Prior to Election Day................................................................................................... 57 4.3.2 Election Day................................................................................................................ 59 4.3.3 The Results of the Election ......................................................................................... 60 4.3.4 Meeting Goals? ........................................................................................................... 63 4.4 Four Conditions that Influenced the Center’s Work.................................................... 63 4.4.1 Other Organizations Involved ..................................................................................... 64 4.4.2 The Reputation of a Former President ........................................................................ 65 2 4.4.3 Regional Initiatives ..................................................................................................... 69 4.4.4 The Presidency of George Walker Bush ..................................................................... 70 4.5 The Influence of the Conditions...................................................................................... 73 Chapter 5: Conclusions.......................................................................................................... 76 5.1 Possibilities and Limitations............................................................................................ 76 5.1.1 A Democratic Peace .................................................................................................... 77 5.2 The Influence of Four Conditions................................................................................... 79 5.3 Concluding Remarks........................................................................................................ 82 References:.............................................................................................................................. 87 Appendix A:............................................................................................................................ 95 Appendix B: ............................................................................................................................ 96 3 Chapter 1: Introduction An individual is not swept along a tide of inevitability but can influence even the greatest human events. […] Even without government power – and often in opposition to it – individuals can enhance human rights and wage peace, actively and effectively. - Jimmy Carter1 1.1 Small Actors, Big Possibilities? Former US President, James Earl (Jimmy) Carter, Jr., has made it his goal to fight for peace and human rights at a global scale. Carter’s quest for peace focuses on the role individuals and organizations can play in international affairs, and through the activities of the Carter Center, established in 1982 by the former president, Carter hopes to realize his mission. It is the purpose of this thesis to examine Carter and his Center’s work for democracy and peace, and especially their election mediation as a strategy for peace. The importance of individual involvement can be verified if Carter and his Center are successful in their strategy, making peace-building a private as well as a governmental enterprise. Violent conflicts within and between states are never easy to solve. Different settings demand different solutions, and despite continuous efforts, some conflicts seem impossible to mediate. States, international organizations, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), and private individuals are all important actors in conflict resolution, and the number of participants in peace work seems only to be growing. Despite this attention to the settling of disputes, wars and violent conflicts dominate international relations, making the challenge of how to assure peace, and whether democracy can be the solution, a million dollar question. This interest in settling of conflicts is also a personal one, where the role of smaller actors and NGOs are of particular interest. Thus, a preliminary hypothesis for this thesis is that NGOs can contribute to peace. 1 Jimmy Carter, The Nobel Peace Prize Lecture, (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2002), 14. 4 One NGO involved in democracy work as a way of building peace is the Carter Center. The Center, located in Atlanta, was created