Re-engineering the skill ecosystem September 2016 www.kpmg.com/IN Foreword - FICCI Prime Minister Modi shares the dream and demographic nightmare. This indeed calls for an aspirations of a billion plus people of India, which urgent re-engineering of the skill ecosystem! is “to make India a global economic leader”. To The FICCI-KPMG report, examines some of the achieve this dream, government has initiated a above aspects in detail and recommends the number of flagship initiatives, including ‘Skill India’. way forward. The report identifies how data from We at FICCI believe that it is time to evaluate the provident fund schemes can help us answer the steps taken and come up with new measures to biggest questions – where are the jobs? There is strengthen the Skill and Training ecosystem in the need to identify regional growth engines, create country. linkages between feeder regions for labour & India today is grappling with twin challenge economic pockets. Besides present triggers that of skilling millions of youth and employment will impact the industry & jobs, we need to identify generation for engaging them in gainful the drivers which will impact Indian economy, employment. As per projections, over 109 million technology being the key driver. Besides, domestic incremental people will be required in India requirements, with demographic shifts and an alone, across 24 key sectors by the year 2022. ageing population across key markets, can India be Yet, only 4.69 per cent of the Indian population the skill partner for the world at a time of extreme has undergone formal skill training. India still technological disruption? What would be key skills has the age old tradition of learning on the job in demand & what are the reskilling imperatives? through informal networks and needs to gravitate Do we have the right institutional framework to towards a formal system for rapid improvement in identify them? productivity through use of latest technology. India cannot risk making inadequate investment We have to interlink skills, training and job creation and needs correct strategies so as to not lose out gaps in order to accommodate the annual 18 on this critical time. While there is always a space million Indian youth entering the workforce for for learning, there is a greater need to collaborate, the first time during the next decade and a half. complement and customise quickly. There is an Against this need, at present only 5.5 million urgent need to rise above the limitations and additional organised sector jobs a year are being aggregate the efforts in mission mode to make created which is certainly not enough. Unless the skill vision a success. We need to move away the skill program of the country is based on the from incremental reforms and leap forward with demography, geography, migration of labour within generational transformation. The question is – how the country and outside, industry growth, reliable fast we can be ready for this? and relevant data and training needs, India’s demographic dividend would certainly become a TV Mohan Das Pai Chairman FICCI Skill Development Committee Foreword - KPMG With a favourable demographic dividend of India, which in my view has assumed critical proposition there comes a big responsibility of providing and might well determine the future growth of this employability to millions of youth from this country. country. Two reasons why this looks possible is that India This white paper traces the Indian growth story by is a consumption-driven economy with an average tracking the Indian Gross Domestic product (GDP) growth of more than 7 per cent Gross Domestic and Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) of the Product (GDP) in the last few quarters, which states along with the evolution of Indian workforce would support employment in a big way. Secondly, over the years. It captures the growth of formal with the ageing world population, young India has employment in India and its significance detailing an opportunity to become the global supplier of the factors that affect the stock of skill in India. manpower. But the main factor that can threaten this opportunity is not having the capability and The paper also has some important suggestions capacity to cater to this burgeoning demand, and and recommendations for all stakeholders skilling is the only answer to this. concerned to accelerate the pace of skill education in India. I truly believe that this paper would help The government recognises this fact, and hence understand the magnitude of the skilling agenda, has created a separate ministry for skilling and the journey till date and big task ahead. entrepreneurship in order to usher India in the new era but nothing short of a revolution is required in skilling and the vocational education space in India, Narayanan Ramaswamy Partner and Head Education Sector KPMG in India Table of contents © 2016 KPMG, an Indian Registered Partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Engines of growth 1 Employment generation 7 Understanding the availability of skill 11 The current skill development ecosystem in India 16 Issues and suggestions 21 Annexure 25 Bibliography 29 © 2016 KPMG, an Indian Registered Partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. 1 Re-engineering the skill ecosystem Engines of growth The Indian growth story is a remarkable one – possibly a bright spot in today’s otherwise subdued global economy. Predicted to grow at 7.5 per cent – 7.7 per cent, per annum , India is expected to sustain its position as the world’s fastest growing economy till 2018 (Figure 1.0). Figure 1 Global GDP growth rates; in per cent 4.4 Sub-Saharan Africa 3.0 7.7 India 7.6 7.3 South Asia (excl India) 7.0 3.6 Middle East and North Africa 2.6 -0.7 2.1 Latin America and the Caribbean 2.8 Europe and Central Asia -0.1 6.1 East Asia and Pacific 6.5 1.9 Advanced Economies 1.8 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 2018E 2015E Source: World Bank Statistics Figure 2 FDI inflow; in INR billion The FY 2015-16 growth in real GDP is attributed mainly to the uptick in domestic household consumption. Going by the trend, the future Indian consumer will reside in Tier 2 and 3000 2,526 Tier 3 cities. Hence predictably, this market is likely to be the 2500 centre of attraction for global and Indian consumer-focussed industries. The evidence of global investor interest is reflected 2000 1,753 in the growing FDI inflow over the past few years (Figure 2) 1500 1,295 1000 713 500 0 2013 2014 2015 Q1 2016 Source: Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion statistics © 2016 KPMG, an Indian Registered Partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Re-engineering the skill ecosystem 2 Growth propellers – sources of growth in the Indian economy Key sectors of growth It is widely acknowledged that a strong domestic market has buttressed the Indian economy from global shocks. A burgeoning middle class population and rapid urbanisation have contributed to the growth in services such as retail, tourism and travel, communication, financial services, real estate, etc. Government of India’s official estimates show strong growth performance of services and related sectors (Figure 3). Figure 3 Percentage change in gross value added by economic activity; year by year on change 15 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.3 9.8 Mining and Quarrying 9.3 9 10 8 7.1 7.4 7.2 Manufacturing 6.6 6.6 5.5 Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility 4.4 5 3.9 services 1.2 Construction 0 Trade, hotels, transport, communication and -0.2 services related to broadcasting 2014-15 2015-16 Financial, real estate and professional services -5 Public administration, defense and other services GVA at Base price Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation © 2016 KPMG, an Indian Registered Partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. 3 Re-engineering the skill ecosystem Declining crude oil prices benefitted both private households Figure 5 GSDP growth; 2013-14 and industry as the low cost of oil eased spending capacity and improved margins, respectively. Interestingly, a closer look also highlights the role of government spending in boosting economic growth (Figure 4) . Figure 4 Share of GDP, by expenditure method 100 1.5 PFCE 1.8 1.8 32.3 31.2 GFCE Government final 10.4 9.9 50 GFCF consumption 55.5 expenditure (GFCE) 55.6 CIS grew at 12.8% 0 VALUABLES in 2014-15 (YOY) -1.4 -0.3 -1.9 Net exporters 2014-15 2015-16 -50 Discrepancies Source: World Bank Statistics Less than national average Another important factor that likely to influence growth sectors is Industry 4.0. This refers to the fourth industrial Upto 3% above national average revolution. The disruptive changes expected are linked to More than 3% above national average the growing technological proliferation in consumption patterns and in turn, in how businesses are run. Technology is changing consumption behaviour and hence the nature of Source: Niti Ayog final goods and services being consumed. More importantly, The attractive Indian consumer – domestic market it is also influencing business operations across sectors.