Aylesbury Vale District Council ‐ Housing Land Supply Calculation January 2014 Introduction This document sets out the calculations for the housing land supply in Aylesbury Vale District as at 30th September 2013. It uses the latest available published housing projections for the district, the 2011 interim CLG household projections to 2021 (published April 2013) and includes an allowance for a 3% vacancy rate in addition to the CLG figures. Assessment of current housing land supply The current supply of housing land in the District is made up from: Sites with planning permission; Sites that do not yet have planning permission, but that have been approved in principle, subject to the completion of a Section 106 or planning obligation agreement; Sites that are allocated in the Aylesbury Vale District Local Plan but that do not yet have planning permission or approval subject to a Section 106 agreement. All sites for 5 dwellings or more that are included in the supply have been individually assessed as being available, suitable and achievable. Wherever possible we have obtained up-to-date estimates of build rates from housing developers. All sites for under 5 dwellings that have full planning permission have been included in the supply, but the overall total has been subjected to a 10% discount to account for the fact that some sites will not be implemented. Summary of housing land supply position Total number of dwellings (net of losses) Deliverable sites with planning permission 5,891 Deliverable sites not yet with planning 2,969 permission but approved subject to S106 Deliverable sites identified in AVDLP but 36 not yet with planning permission or approved subject to S106 Total deliverable supply 2013-2031 8,896 Deliverable supply 2013-2021 6,866 Out of this total supply, the number of dwellings expected to be delivered in the next two five year periods is: Total Deliverable supply 2013-2018 5,526 Deliverable supply 2014-2019 4,955 It can be seen that 5,526 dwellings are deliverable within the 5 year period 2013-2018 (an average annual figure of 1,105 dwellings). When these figures are compared against the trajectory of housing delivery that has taken place within the district, they indicate that there is sufficient supply to deliver an increased level of housing over the next 5 years, compared to earlier years (the average annual number of dwellings completed over 2008-2013 was 866). A target of 10,176 dwellings in the District for the 2011-2021 period is based on the 2011 CLG interim household projections, published in April 2013, and includes in addition to this an allowance for a 3% vacancy rate (in line with Council Tax records which indicates that 2.6% of dwellings in the District are vacant1). 1 ONS records for October 2012 show 72,990 dwellings in total, of which 1,922 are vacant Position at end September 2013 1 Total requirement Annual average Average over 5 year 2011-2021 requirement period District Total 10,176 1,018 5,088 Tables are set out below showing the calculations of housing land supply based on these CLG figures. This is shown firstly for the period 2013 to 2018, and then for the period 2014 to 2019. In accordance with the National Planning Policy Framework (paragraph 47) a buffer of 5% is added to the requirement2. Housing land supply for 1st April 2013 to 31st March 2018 District Requirement 5,088 Pre-2013 oversupply 1 Adjustment to requirement * -1 Total 5 year requirement 5,087 Total 5 year requirement plus additional buffer of 5% 5,341 Total projected supply from deliverable sites 5,526 Projected supply as percentage of requirement 103.5% (5.2 years) *This adjustment takes account of the number of actual housing completions in the period 2011 to 2013. This has exceeded the 2011 interim CLG projections requirement. The oversupply is subtracted from the requirement for the remaining 8 years of the 10 year period. So the requirement for the first five years is decreased by 5 x 1/ 8. Housing land supply for 1st April 2014 to 31st March 2019 District Requirement 5,088 Pre-2014 oversupply 82 Adjustment to requirement * -59 Total 5 year requirement 5,029 Total 5 year requirement plus additional buffer of 5,280 5% Total projected supply from deliverable sites 4,955 Projected supply as percentage of requirement 93.8% (4.7 years) *This adjustment takes account of the number of actual housing completions in the period 2011 to 2013 and the number of projected completions from 2013 to 2014. This has exceeded the CLG requirement. The oversupply is subtracted from the CLG requirement for the remaining 7 years of the 10 year period. So the requirement for the first five years is decreased by 5 x 75 / 7. 2 The NPPF (paragraph 47) requires housing land supply has an additional buffer of 5% added (moved forward from later in the plan period). Or, where there has been ‘a record of persistent under delivery of housing’, local planning authorities should increase the 5% buffer to 20%. “Persistent under delivery” is not defined in the NPPF. Table 2: Past housing delivery rates against AVDLP and interim 2011-based CLG Household Projections in the Five Year Housing Land Supply Position Statement illustrates that whilst there have been fluctuations in completions rates, there has not been “persistent” under delivery of housing. There has been particularly high delivery in the past couple of years with 1,103 dwellings delivered in 2011/12 and 934 in 2012/13. Position at end September 2013 2 Appendix 1: List of deliverable sites (5 or greater dwellings) contributing to the projected housing supply (to end of September 2013) Estimated number of completions Deliverability commentary Our ref Status as at Total 2013-2031 2013- 2014- 2015- Availabl Suitable Achievable 30/09/2013 number of * 2018 (five 2019 (five 2020 (five e dwellings years) years) years) Aylesbury - With Planning Permission 001h0157 Berryfields Major AVDLP & 3000 2541 1441 1350 Under construction. Contact Development Area Permission made with developers/agents. (MDA) Completion rate estimated based on information provided. 020h0001a etc Weedon Hill MDA AVDLP & 1037 197 197 107 Under construction. Estimated (Buckingham Park) Permission completion rate from developers/agents. 001h0247 Stoke Mandeville Hospital AVDLP & 330 137 137 102 Under construction. Contact (south part & some land Permission made with developers/agents. outside allocation), Lower Estimated completion rate Road provided. 001h0278 Gatehouse Quarter Permission 370 234 234 231 Under construction. Contact made with developers/agents. Estimated completion rate provided. 001h0157a Berryfields House AVDLP & 235 235 235 185 Contact made with (Berryfields MDA) Permission developers/agents. Estimated completion rate provided. 001h0363,363a Off Gatehouse Way, permission 98 98 98 98 Assume completions start in Aylesbury 2014/15. 001h0286 Hartwell Sidings, Oxford Permission 75 75 75 75 Assumed to be completed by Road (extension of 2016/17. time limit applied for) 001h0382 Former Bearbrook House, AVDLP & 75 75 75 75 Contact made with Oxford Road Permission developers/agents. Estimated completion date provided. 001h0397 Former TRW Site Permission 73 73 73 73 Contact made with Buckingham road developers/agents. Estimated completion date provided 001h0303 Mandeville School, Ellen Permission 34 32 32 8 Under construction. Contact Road made with developers/agents. Estimated completion rate provided. 001h0365 Jansel Square, Brentwood Permission 20 20 20 0 Contact made with Way, Aylesbury developers/agents. Estimated completion date provided. 001h0364 Walton Court Centre, Permission 21 21 21 0 Contact made with Aylesbury developers/agents. Estimated completion date provided. 001h0399 Rycote House, Temple Permission 6 6 6 6 Contact made with Street, Aylesbury developers/agents. Estimated completion date provided 001h0401 Clocks and Chimes Court, Pemission 6 6 6 6 Contact made with 2a Rickfords Hill, developers/agents. Estimated Aylesbury completion date provided. 001h0374 Garage site, Orwell Drive, Permission 12 12 12 0 Under construction. Contact Aylesbury made with developers/agents. Estimated completion date provided. 001h0373 Garage court, Gilmore Permission 5 5 5 0 Under construction. Contact Road, Aylesbury made with developers/agents. Estimated completion date provided. Aylesbury Total - With Planning Permission 3767 2667 2316 Rest of District - With Planning Permission 016h0143 Land to south of the A421 Permission 700 672 672 472 Under construction. Contact and east of A413, London made with developers/agents. Road, Buckingham Completion rate estimated based on information 117h0039 Former Princess Mary’s AVDLP & 400 52 52 0 Under construction. Contact Hospital, Wendover Permission made with developers/agents. Completion rate estimated based on information provided. 125h0079 Verney Road, Winslow AVDLP & 218 114 114 107 Under construction. Contact permission made with developers/agents. Completion rate estimated based on information provided. 091h0022a&b Former Pitstone cement AVDLP & 164 12 12 0 Site nearing completion. works permission 016h0129a&b Bridge Street, AVDLP & 103 25 25 0 Site nearing completion. Buckingham permission 129h0002 Land off Brickhill Way Permission 98 24 24 0 Under construction. Contact and Sandstone Close, made with developers/agents. Calvert Green Estimated completion rate provided. 016h0138 Tingewick Road, Permission 86 86 86 86 Completions assumed to Buckingham (extension of commence in 2014/15. time limit applied for) 016h0159 Land North of manor park Permission 80 80 80 80 Contact made with Farm, Moreton Road, developers/agents. Buckingham Completion date estimated 058h0057 Haddenham & Thame Permission 71 71 71 49 Underbd construction. if i Contact Parkway Station, Thame made with developers/agents. Road, Haddenham Estimated completion date provided. 058h0048 Former Spicer Hallfield, Permission 48 6 6 0 Nearing completion. Banks Road, Haddenham 026h0075 Land at Stablebridge Permission 48 48 48 48 Contact made with Road, Aston Clinton developers/agents. Completion date estimated based on information 124h0027, 27a, Manor Lodge, Winslow Permission 16 1 1 0 Nearing completion.