A r m e n i a History and Overview Potato was introduced to Eurasia from its Andean American center of origin via Western Europe, probably in the late sixteenth or early seventeenth century by mariners from Portugal, and subsequently other European countries. The diffusion of potato into the Caucasus region is not well documented, but probably occurred at various times via various routes. One possibility is via Persia (contemporary Iran), where documents refer to a presentation of potato to the Persian court by the British consul in the early nineteenth century (Laufer 1938), but this formal introduction does not preclude the likelihood of less formal migrations, a process probably still ongoing. Armenia became independent in late 1991, one of the newly-autonomous nations formed by the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Armenia is small (slightly less than 30,000 square kilometers) and landlocked. However, the modern state occupies only part of historical Armenia, whose ancient centers were located in the valley of the Aras River and the region around Lake Van in Turkey (LOC: Society and Environment). Independence initially brought arduous challenges, as the new nation had to adapt to a "stand alone" economy. Under the Soviet system, Armenia had developed an industrial sector, supplying manufactured goods to other Soviet territories in exchange for raw materials and energy. The agricultural system, characterized by specialized agro-industrial state holdings under the Soviet system, is being converted to smaller-scale private operations, initially in need of additional investment and updated technology (CIA Factbook). The transition to independence of former Soviet territories also incited a latent conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, a predominately Armenian-populated region assigned to Soviet Azerbaijan by Moscow in the 1920s (faintly visible on the map, page 5). Tension escalated as Soviet authority was weakening in the late 1980s, and Armenians in Karabakh demanded that their territory be transferred from Soviet Azerbaijan to Soviet Armenia. The dispute developed into a military conflict as both nations attained independence. By May 1994, when a cease-fire had been achieved, 20,000 people had been killed, and more than a million were displaced (de Waal 2019, p. 99). Both nations have suffered serious setbacks, and the conflict has not been resolved. Armenia has endured further isolation, as Turkey maintains an economic blockade in protest of Armenian occupation of what it regards as areas of Azerbaijan (CIA Factbook: Armenia, Transnational Issues). Armenia's only surface access to the world is via Georgia to the Black Sea, but even this route has been interrupted by Georgia's own traumas. In October 2020, the dispute again escalated, resolved (in terms of immediate military conflict) as of March 2021. • From Wikipedia: Nagorno- Karabakh Conflict. • Chapter four of Thomas de Waal’s The Caucasus (2019) provides a concise history (20th and 21st centuries) of the conflict. Through these events, Armenian agriculture (both crops and livestock) has faced enormous challenges. Wheat is essential, but domestic production is not nearly sufficient. Even in normal years, Armenia has to cover the shortfall by importing most of its wheat, roughly 500,000 tons, or 165 kilograms annually per capita (UNDP p. 33). The production of wheat remained fairly stable for several years, but the harvest in 2017 declined by almost half from the previous year. Harvests of grapes and other fruit, important as cash crops, declined sharply in the early years of independence absent assured markets and more expensive water via irrigation. (Armenia has long been renowned for the cognac produced by its grapes.) • Hunger in Armenia (September 2018) is published by Borgen Magazine, citing data from several sources. 1 Agriculture as a share of the Armenian economy has been in overall decline, accounting for 37 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 1994, but only 12 per cent in 2020 (Word Bank 2020: Armenia). Agriculture nonetheless remains a major source of employment, as of 2020 accounting for approximately 30 per cent of the labor force (World Bank: Employment in Agriculture, Armenia). Much of that employment, especially for potato cultivation, is of women. Perhaps it is no coincidence that many potato varieties cultivated in Armenia bear female names, as reported by JAMNews: Armenia’s Potato Queendom. (Coffee break, from the JAMNews story) Armenia's potato crop (the "second bread" of the Caucasus and Central Asia) has remained essential to its food security, by volume Armenia’s leading staple. From 1992 to 2014, per capita production increased from 90 to approximately 240 kilograms, very high by world standards (FAO). Production has since been in decline due mostly to factors affecting Armenia’s agriculture in general, including drought in some regions and shortages of production inputs. Potato yields have possibly suffered from the disruption of the formal seed system as a source of disease-free planting materials and new varieties, although it seems that potato (probably including seed potato) crosses borders even when they are officially blockaded. Potato retains a strong role in Armenia’s food security, as of October 2020 possibly more so if the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan escalates further. The challenges facing agriculture in Armenia are illustrated by the graph next page, based on data reported by FAOSTAT (accessed October 2020). Although harvested weight is a crude measure of nutritional or commercial value − a kilogram of walnuts is obviously far more valuable than a kilogram of watermelon − aggregated values nonetheless provide an indication of general trends. Crops included in the graph (in addition to potato) are: • Cereals: wheat, barley, maize, oats, and rye. • Fruits, nuts, and tree crops: apples, apricots, figs, grapes, peaches and nectarines, pears, plums and sloes, walnuts, and watermelon. • Vegetables: beans, cabbage and other brassicas, carrots and turnips, cauliflower and broccoli, cucumbers and gherkins, garlic, mushrooms and truffles, onions, peas, and tomatoes. 2 Production Graphs Production is displayed in metric tons, average yields in metric tons per hectare, and area harvested in hectares. All graphs indicate yields in tons per hectare, but the scale of other factors is adjusted for optimal display. Per capita production graphs display total production and population, with annual production per capita derived from those two values. Production per capita is displayed consistently by kilograms, but the scale of other factors is adjusted for display. Data are provided by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAOSTAT), accessed April 2021. (Potato production has apparently stabilized since the data reported through 2018, displayed above.) 3 Ge o g ra ph y and Areas of Cultivation Physical Geography Armenia is the most mountainous of the Caucasus republics, forming part of the Lesser Caucasus range extending also through parts of Georgia and Azerbaijan, a complex topography formed by geological upheavals beginning 25 million years ago. Roughly half the area of the country lies at altitudes over 2,000 meters above sea level (masl), and only about three percent below 650 masl. The highest point in Armenia, Mount Aragats, reaches 4,090 masl. Most of the population lives in the western and northwestern areas of the country, where the two major cities, Erevan and Gyumri, are located (LOC: Society and Environment). In spite of the mountainous terrain of Armenia, agriculture remains so important to the country that land under agricultural production (including perennial pastures) accounts for 62 percent of the total area (USAID 2017). A study published by the World Bank estimated that land devoted to annual crops accounts for 11 percent of total area (World Bank 2012). • Several Thematic Maps of Armenia and the Central Asia and Caucasus Region are available via the University of Texas. Armenia’s mountainous terrain is a source of hazard, especially earthquakes and landslides. In December 1988, the second largest city, Gyumri (formerly Leninakan), was heavily damaged by a massive quake that killed more than 25,000 people. Heavy rains (becoming more common with climate change) can oversaturate unstable areas, resulting in landslides destroying hundreds of buildings and vital infrastructure, such as roads, railways, and reservoirs. Armenia’s topographic complexity is also reflected in a high level of biodiversity, especially relative to the small size of the country. However, more than 15 percent of Armenia’s plant species are in danger of local extinction, as more land is projected to degrade to desert or semi-desert over the next several decades (USAID 2017). Climate and Precipitation Armenia's climate is generally dependent on altitude and the local effects of the Lesser Caucasus range, which blocks the potentially moderating climatic influences of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. Local and seasonal variations are severe. Apart from these general factors, Armenian farmers must be very sensitive to local variations caused by strong vertical gradients and aspect (the direction in which land faces), which greatly affect local solar radiation, hence climate. 4 On the Armenian Plateau, the mean midwinter temperature is 0° C, and the mean midsummer temperature exceeds 25° C. In the lowlands and foothills, the annual frost-free period is generally more than 220 days, but declines to about 150 days in mid- mountain areas, and can be as short as 60 days at the highest altitudes (USAID 2017). A strong warming trend appears to be accelerating. A study commis- sioned by the World Bank (2012) projects that over the next 50 years, the average increase in temperature across Armenia will be about 2.6°C, compared with the 0.85°C increase in temperature observed over the last 80 years. Temperature impacts are expected to be especially severe in the Ararat Valley, site of currently the highest-yielding potato cultivation in the country. Average annual precipitation ranges from 250 millimeters in the lower Aras River valley to 800 millimeters at the highest altitudes (Tumanian 2006).