Band 12 / 2018 Band 12 / 2018 The EU’s Western Balkan strategy is gaining a new and positive momentum. However, this development leads to the question how to deal with the challenges lying ahead for overcoming blockades and improving intra-state/neighbourhood relations in South East Europe. This general issue was comprehensively Overcoming Blockades and analysed by the Study Group “Regional Stability in South East Europe” at its 36th Workshop. Improving Intra-State Thus it appears that South East Europe, and especially the peace consolidating Western Balkans, seems to be at a decisive Neighbourhood Relations in South East Europe crossroads once again. This will either lead to the substantial improvement of intra-state and regional relations among future EU members or will prolong nationalistic, anti-democratic and exclusive policies, thereby harming also EU integration as the core consolidation tool in the Western Balkans. Overcoming Blockades and Improving Intra-State and Improving Blockades Overcoming ISBN: 978-3-903121-53-9 Predrag Jureković (Ed.) 12/18 36th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group “Regional Stability in South East Europe” (Ed.) Jureković Study Group Information Study Group Information Predrag Jureković (Ed.) Overcoming Blockades and Improving Intra-State/ Neighbourhood Relations in South East Europe 36th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group “Regional Stability in South East Europe” 12/2018 Vienna, September 2018 Imprint: Copyright, Production, Publisher: Republic of Austria / Federal Ministry of Defence Rossauer Lände 1 1090 Vienna, Austria Edited by: National Defence Academy Command Stiftgasse 2a 1070 Vienna, Austria In co-operation with: PfP Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany Study Group Information Copyright © Republic of Austria / Federal Ministry of Defence All rights reserved September 2018 ISBN 978-3-903121-53-9 Printing: ReproZ W 18-4045 Stiftgasse 2a 1070 Wien Table of Contents Foreword Predrag Jureković ....................................................................................................... 5 Abstract ................................................................................................................... 7 PART I: CONCEPTUAL AND THEORETICAL VIEWS ..................... 9 Constructive and Effective Negotiating in South East Europe Plamen Pantev ......................................................................................................... 11 The Development of the Western Balkans from the View of a “Neutral” Austrian Diplomat Thomas Ahammer ................................................................................................... 23 PART II: COOPERATION AND ANTAGONISM IN THE POST-DAYTON TRIANGLE ........................................................................ 31 Cooperation and Antagonism in the Post-Dayton Triangle: Unlikely Coalitions and Dishonest Partners Denisa Sarajlić ........................................................................................................ 33 The Western Balkans – Legacies of the Past and the Prospect of European Partnership Djordje Popović ........................................................................................................ 47 PART III: THE TRIANGLE OF REGIONAL (IN)STABILITY: BELGRADE – PRISHTINA/PRIŠTINA – TIRANA ............................... 53 The Triangle of Regional (In)Stability: Belgrade – Prishtina – Tirana Lulzim Peci ............................................................................................................. 55 Kosovo-Serbia Relations: Drafting a Common Future Miodrag Milićević .................................................................................................... 69 3 A New Rapprochement between Albania and Serbia: The Implications for Kosovo Albert Rakipi .......................................................................................................... 79 PART IV: CHALLENGES FOR MACEDONIA ...................................... 101 Opportunities and Constraints for the Resolution of FYROM’s Name Dispute Elena Mandalenakis .............................................................................................. 103 PART V: POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS............................................. 119 Policy Recommendations “Regional Stability in South East Europe” Study Group ....................................... 121 List of Abbreviations ......................................................................................... 131 List of Authors and Editor ............................................................................... 133 4 Foreword Predrag Jureković This volume is composed of articles from the 36th Workshop of the Study Group “Regional Stability in South East Europe”. The Workshop was conducted in Reichenau/Austria, from 3 to 6 May, 2018. Under the over- arching title “Overcoming Blockades and Improving Intra-State/ Neighbourhood Relations in South East Europe” 40 experts from the South East European region and other parts of Europe, international or- ganizations and major stake holder nations met under the umbrella of the PfP Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes and the Austrian Ministry of Defence, represented through its National De- fence Academy and the Directorate General for Security Policy. Being faced with the forthcoming Brexit and attempts by Russia, China and Turkey to extend their influence in this part of Europe, the EU through its Commission strategy in February offered to the Western Balkan countries “a historic window of opportunity to firmly and unequivocally bind their future to the European Union”. According to this document a realistic membership perspective for 2025 was promised to Montenegro and Serbia, which are already negotiating candidate countries. In consideration of their progress in implementing reforms and fulfilling conditions the other West- ern Balkan countries should follow. Besides credible efforts in applying EU standards and reforms (regarding the rule of law, fundamental rights and governance reconciliation) good neighbourly relations and regional cooperation are listed by the EU Com- mission as further prerequisites for accession. Against this background, the Workshop and thus the articles presented here dealt and deal with the fol- lowing key questions: Which factors are responsible for the circumstance that in some parts of South East Europe the consolidation of intra-state and neighbourhood relations have suffered setbacks or remain trapped in stagnation in recent past? 5 Which steps have to be taken by regional and international actors to support overcoming of blockade policies and improve both in- tra-state and neighbourhood relations in South East Europe? To what extent can the EU’s reaffirmed enlargement strategy for the Western Balkans be used to consolidate intra-regional relations in a more intensive way? The covered topics in this Study Group information range from conceptual and theoretical views about constructive and effective negotiating, the issue of cooperation and antagonism in the “Post-Dayton-Triangle” Bosnia and Herzegovina – Croatia – Serbia to the triangle of regional (in)stability be- tween Belgrade, Prishtina/Priština and Tirana as well as specific domestic and regional challenges of single countries, in particular the Former Yugo- slav Republic of Macedonia. The editor would like to express his thanks to all authors who contributed papers to this volume of the Study Group Information. He is pleased to present the analyses and recommendations to the valued readers and would appreciate if this Study Group Information could contribute to generate positive ideas for supporting the still challenging processes of consolidating peace in South East Europe. Special thanks go to Veronika Fuchshuber, Benedikt Hensellek and Raffaela Woller, who supported this publication as facilitating editors. 6 Abstract South East Europe, and especially the peace consolidating Western Bal- kans, seems to be at a decisive crossroads once again. This will either lead to the substantial improvement of intra-state and regional relations among future EU members or will prolong nationalistic, anti-democratic and ex- clusive policies, thereby harming also EU integration as the core consolida- tion tool in the Western Balkans. The opportunities to support the cooper- ative scenario were discussed at the 36th Workshop of the Study Group “Regional Stability in South East Europe”. Against the background of a new and positive momentum regarding EU’s Western Balkan strategy the contributions in this Study Group Information deal with the challenges lying ahead for overcoming blockades and improv- ing intra-state/neighbourhood relations in South East Europe. The covered topics in this Study Group information range from conceptual and theoretical views about constructive and effective negotiating, the issue of cooperation and antagonism in the “Post-Dayton-Triangle” Bosnia and Herzegovina – Croatia – Serbia to the triangle of regional (in)stability be- tween Belgrade, Prishtina/Priština and Tirana as well as specific domestic and regional challenges of single countries, in particular the Former Yugo- slav Republic of Macedonia. 7 PART I: CONCEPTUAL AND THEORETICAL VIEWS 9 Constructive and Effective Negotiating in South East Europe Plamen Pantev Let me start this paper with the reminder that in 2018 the region of South East Europe is no longer the “powder keg” of Europe and the world. The decade