ASSESSMENT OF COASTAL HAZARD ZONES FOR TOLAGA BAY AND ANAURA BAY, GISBORNE DISTRICT, BY GIS COMPUTER MODEL Report prepared for Gisborne District Council C.R. 1998/5 August 1998 © Jeremy G Gibb 2009 All rights reserved. This work is entitled to the full protection given by the Copyright Act 1994 to the author. No part of this work covered by the author's copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means (graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, recording taping, or information retrieval systems) without the written permission of the author. It is accepted that the client is able to copy any report in its entirety for internal purposes and distribution to its consultants. Gisborne District Council Assessment of Coastal Hazard Zones for Tolaga Bay and Anaura Bay, Gisborne District, by GIS Computer Model DISCLAIMER Coastal Management Consultancy Limited (the Service Provider) shall have no liability; i. to any person other than the client to whom the Service Provider’s report is addressed; nor, ii. in the event that the Service Provider’s report is used for any purpose other than the specific purpose stated in the report. Dr J.G. Gibb, Coastal Management Consultant (C.R. 98/5) Page 2 Gisborne District Council Assessment of Coastal Hazard Zones for Tolaga Bay and Anaura Bay, Gisborne District, by GIS Computer Model EXECUTIVE SUMMARY On 17 January 1997, the writer was commissioned by Gisborne District Council (GDC) to carry out detailed assessments of Coastal Hazard Zones (CHZ) for both Tolaga and Anaura Bays (Figure 1). The agreed study objectives were to: i. “Define Coastal Hazard Risk Zones (CHRZs) for Anaura Bay and Tolaga Bay with Gisborne District Council’s (Council) Arc/Info Geographic Information System (GIS).” ii. “Produce CHRZs in a format suitable for inclusion in Council’s Regional Coastal Environment and District Plans for the Gisborne Region and to be used after that for any purpose to which such Plans are normally put.” An Arc/Info GIS computer model developed and standardised by the writer in 1996 in Tauranga District was successfully adapted and used for this study to define Coastal Hazard Zones for both Tolaga and Anaura Bays, inclusive of Coastal Erosion Hazard Risk Zones and Coastal Flood Hazard Zone. The entire Tolaga Bay and Anaura Bay shorelines are subject to and will continue to be subject to adverse effects from the identified natural hazards of minor wind erosion and major sea-erosion of the foredune complex enhanced by rising sea-levels next century, and significant temporary inundation of coastal hinterland from Tsunami up to 4-6m and Storm Wave Runup (SWRU) up to 5-7m during extreme events. Coastal Erosion Hazard Zone (CEHZ) widths inclusive of Extreme, High and Moderate Risk Zones and Safety Buffer Zones ranged from 35 to 205m in width from the 1997 dune in Anaura Bay and 70 to 200m in Tolaga Bay, for a planning horizon from the present to the year 2100 A.D. Coastal Flood Hazard Zone (CFHZ) widths inclusive of the effects of both a 4-6m Tsunami and 5-7m SWRU ranged in width from 14 to 225m in Tolaga Bay and 15 to 150m in Anaura Bay from the 1997 duneline for extreme events over the next century. Within the Extreme to Moderate Risk Erosion Zones and CFHZ of the CHZ, property, assets, amenity and conservation values have a high probability of being damaged or destroyed at various periods over the next century (1998-2100 A.D.). Landward of the CHZ, the risk to these elements over the next 100 years is likely to be very low. It is recommended that Gisborne District Council, after due consideration of this report: i. ADOPT the 1998 Coastal Hazard Zones for Anaura Bay and Tolaga Bay inclusive of the Extreme, High and Moderate Risk Erosion Zones and Safety Buffer Zone (Coastal Erosion Hazard Zone) and Coastal Flood Hazard Zone, to control actual and potential use, subdivision and development, and to advise the public of actual and potential risks to beachfront property from natural coastal hazards. ii. INCORPORATE the 1998 Coastal Hazard Zones for both Anaura Bay and Tolaga Bay into Councils 1997 Proposed Regional Coastal Environment Plan and Proposed Gisborne District combined Regional Land and District Plan. Dr J.G. Gibb, Coastal Management Consultant (C.R. 98/5) Page 3 Gisborne District Council Assessment of Coastal Hazard Zones for Tolaga Bay and Anaura Bay, Gisborne District, by GIS Computer Model iii. PROVIDE for open days at selected venues in both Tolaga and Anaura Bays to disseminate both the findings of this study and Council’s decisions with respect to managing use, subdivision and development within the 1998 Coastal Hazard Zones. iv. ESTABLISH and maintain ongoing monitoring programmes in both Tolaga and Anaura Bays to record annual changes in the position of the shoreline and elevation of the nearshore seabed and to record the landward extent and elevations reached by both severe Storm Wave Runup and Tsunami events. v. REVIEW the 1998 Coastal hazard Zones using the GIS computer model either every 10 years, OR after the occurrence of significant natural phenomena (e.g. Severe wave storms, tsunami, large earthquakes, etc), OR after significant changes in global and regional Climate Predictions by the Royal Society of New Zealand and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. vi. IMPLEMENT and support appropriate “Coast Care” programmes involving local communities to restore, enhance or maintain the protective foredune complex in both Tolaga and Anaura Bays. vii. UTILIZE the standardised GIS computer model used in this study to assess Coastal Hazard Zones for other priority coastal areas in Gisborne District including those areas previously assessed in Poverty Bay and Wainui Beach. Dr J.G. Gibb, Coastal Management Consultant (C.R. 98/5) Page 4 Gisborne District Council Assessment of Coastal Hazard Zones for Tolaga Bay and Anaura Bay, Gisborne District, by GIS Computer Model TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................................................................................................................2 1.1 COASTAL HAZARD MAPPING IN GISBORNE DISTRICT 3 1.2 CHZ ASSESSMENT STANDARDS AND CRITERIA 5 1.2.1............................................................................................................................................................................................................CEHZ 5 1.2.2 CFHZ ....................................................................................................................................................................................................7 1.2.3 Wind erosion ......................................................................................................................................................................................7 2 METHODS...........................................................................................................................................................................................................8 2.1 GIS COMPUTER MODEL 8 2.2 GIS MODEL PARAMETERS 9 2.3 RUNNING THE MODEL 13 3 GEOLOGY .........................................................................................................................................................................................................15 3.1 TOLAGA BAY 16 3.2 ANAURA BAY 19 3.3 NEARSHORE SEAFLOOR 19 3.3.1 Tolaga Bay .........................................................................................................................................................................................20 4 SHORELINE MOVEMENTS ........................................................................................................................................................................26 4.1 TOLAGA BAY 26 4.2 ANAURA BAY 30 5 NATURAL COASTAL HAZARDS.............................................................................................................................................................32 5.1 SEA EROSION 32 5.2 SEA FLOODING 34 5.2.1 Revolving Storms ............................................................................................................................................................................34 5.2.2 Tropical Cyclones ............................................................................................................................................................................35 5.3 CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA-LEVEL RISE 36 6 COASTAL HAZARD ZONE (CHZ) ASSESSMENT ..............................................................................................................................37 6.1 COASTAL EROSION HAZARD ZONE (CEHZ) 37 6.1.1............................................................................................................................................................................................. Risk Zonation 40 6.2 COASTAL FLOOD HAZARD ZONE (CFHZ) 43 6.2.1 Tsunami .............................................................................................................................................................................................44 6.2.2 Storm Wave Runup ........................................................................................................................................................................45 6.2.3 CFHZ ..................................................................................................................................................................................................46