<p>ABSTRACT </p><ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Title of Dissertation: </li><li style="flex:1">BUILDING A BASELINE: UNIFYING </li></ul><p>SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL METHODOLOGIES TO UNDERSTAND ARCHAEOLOGICAL LOOTING IN EGYPT </p><p>Michelle R.D. Fabiani, Doctor of Philosophy 2019 </p><p></p><ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Dissertation directed by: </li><li style="flex:1">Dr. Laura Dugan, Department of Criminology </li></ul><p>and Criminal Justice </p><p>Archaeological looting – the illegal excavation or removal of an antiquity from the ground or structural complex of an archaeological site – is a persistent issue in many countries. National and international laws, agreements, conventions, and statutes all proscribe the looting transporting, possession, and sale of antiquities illegally removed from archaeological sites. Looting has also generated a lot of academic attention, with scholarship developing in archaeology, sociology, criminology, and law (among others). Despite such legal proscriptions and scholarly contributions to understanding this phenomenon, current efforts have been unable to produce tangible solutions for preventing this crime. Not only has there not yet been extensive scholarship to understand the link between looting and contextual forces, there is a dearth of research on the most effective ways to study these interconnected variables. Using a framework of routine activity theory, this dissertation proposes a new possible approach that considers spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal relationships to establish baseline data on patterns of archaeological looting attempts in Lower Egypt from 2015 to 2017 relative to sociopolitical, economic, and environmental stress — and to begin to address this research gap. Specifically, this dissertation proposes a methodology for collecting and coding data on archaeological looting attempts from satellite imagery. It then applies a series of spatial (clustering, proximity), temporal (SEM, VAR, ARDL), and spatio-temporal methods (clustering, hot spots analysis, spatial time series) to these data to demonstrate the importance of analyzing this phenomena multidimensionally. <br>BUILDING A BASELINE: UNIFYING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL <br>METHODOLOGIES TO UNDERSTAND ARCHAEOLOGICAL LOOTING IN <br>EGYPT </p><p>by <br>Michelle Rose Dippolito Fabiani </p><p>Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the <br>University of Maryland, College Park, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of <br>Doctor of Philosophy <br>2019 </p><p>Advisory Committee: Professor Laura Dugan, Chair Professor Sally Simpson Professor Lauren Porter Professor Fiona Greenland Professor Richard Marciano <br>© Copyright by <br>Michelle Rose Dippolito Fabiani <br>2019 </p><p>Dedication </p><p>This dissertation is dedicated to my husband, who has supported me throughout this journey and to whom I am eternally grateful. </p><p>ii </p><p>Acknowledgements </p><p>I would like to thank my committee for their support, encouragement, and insightful comments in this dissertation: Dr. Sally Simpson, Dr. Lauren Porter, Dr. Fiona Greenland, and Dr. Richard Marciano. I would also like to specifically thank Dr. Laura Dugan, my committee chair, for the years of guidance, advice, and inspiration, both in the writing of this dissertation and in the years throughout my pursuit of this degree. <br>I would also like to thank the large network of colleagues who have provided advice and guidance throughout this dissertation. In particular, Dr. Daren Fisher helped me to better prepare, write, and succeed in this work. And Dr. Jesse Casana provided critical guidance to help me understand the process of collecting and coding satellite imagery. <br>Throughout this process and my education, I have been supported by a network of friends and family, both local and afar, who have helped keep me sane and on-track. I would particularly like to thank my sisters, Corinne and Laura, and their partners; my aunt and uncle, Marilyn and Mike Donovan; my cousins, Michael and Lily, Kathleen, and Mary; and my dear friends, Kelly and Gregor McGregor, Anna and Ted Wynfield, Ellen McCormick, Sarah Appleby and Curtis Winans, Lizabeth Remrey, Phoebe and Aaron Koenigsberg, Rebecca Koenigsberg, Mike Kohn and Tony Bowen, and Dennis Sendros and Alina George. <br>Finally, I am eternally grateful to my parents for encouraging me throughout my life to believe in my intelligence, ambition, and abilities. This dissertation would not have been possible without my mother and father’s examples, their support, and their belief. Their inspiration is reflected here in this work and in my heart every day. iii </p><p>Table of Contents </p><p><a href="#5_0">Dedicatio</a><a href="#5_0">n</a><a href="#5_0">.</a><a href="#5_0">.................................................................................................................... ii </a><a href="#6_0">Acknowledgements.....................................................................................................</a><a href="#6_0">.</a><a href="#6_0">i</a><a href="#6_0">ii </a><a href="#7_0">Table of Contents......................................................................................................... iv </a><a href="#10_0">List of Tables .............................................................................................................. vii </a><a href="#12_0">List of Figure</a><a href="#12_0">s</a><a href="#12_0">.</a><a href="#12_0">............................................................................................................. ix </a><a href="#15_0">List of Abbreviations .................................................................................................. xii </a><a href="#16_0">Chapter 1: Introductio</a><a href="#16_0">n</a><a href="#16_0">.</a><a href="#16_0">................................................................................................ 1 </a><a href="#0_0">Chapter 2: Spatial and Temporal Theories of Crim</a><a href="#0_0">e</a><a href="#0_0">.</a><a href="#0_0">................................................... 7 </a><br><a href="#0_0">Routine Activity Theory ........................................................................................... 8 </a><a href="#0_1">A Spatial and Temporal Theoretical Framework for Archaeological Looting </a><a href="#0_1">Attempts.................................................................................................................. 12 </a><br><a href="#0_2">Formal and Informal Guardianship..................................................................... 13 </a><a href="#0_3">Archaeological Sites as Suitable Target</a><a href="#0_3">s</a><a href="#0_3">.</a><a href="#0_3">........................................................... 16 </a><a href="#0_0">Spatio-Temporal Influences on Lootin</a><a href="#0_0">g</a><a href="#0_0">.</a><a href="#0_0">............................................................ 18 </a><br><a href="#0_0">Chapter 3: Lower Egypt as a Case Study.................................................................... 21 </a><br><a href="#0_4">Macro-level Conditions in Lower Egypt ................................................................ 26 </a><br><a href="#0_5">Demographics ..................................................................................................... 27 </a><a href="#0_1">Economics........................................................................................................... 31 </a><a href="#0_1">Environment........................................................................................................ 35 </a><a href="#0_6">Socio-politica</a><a href="#0_6">l</a><a href="#0_6">.</a><a href="#0_6">.................................................................................................... 39 </a><br><a href="#0_2">Lower Egypt’s Cultural Landscape ........................................................................ 41 </a><br><a href="#0_0">A Brief Timeline of Ancient Egypt (8000 BCE – 1000 CE).............................. 42 </a><a href="#0_7">Archaeological Sites in Lower Egypt ................................................................. 43 </a><br><a href="#0_8">Egypt’s Efforts to Protect Cultural Heritage........................................................... 47 </a><br><a href="#0_0">Chapter 4:</a><a href="#0_0">&nbsp;</a><a href="#0_0">Data Collection and Coding Strategy....................................................... 50 </a><br><a href="#0_9">Archaeological Site Satellite Image Data Collection &amp; Coding............................. 53 </a><br><a href="#0_0">Phase 1 – Identification of the “universe” of archaeological sites in Lower Egypt </a><a href="#0_0">............................................................................................................................. 56 </a><a href="#0_0">Phase 2 - Initial image collection and recalibration and construction of sampling </a><a href="#0_0">strategy................................................................................................................ 60 </a><a href="#0_10">Phases 3 and 4 – Review data collection from Digital Globe and additional data </a><a href="#0_10">collection from Google Earth Pr</a><a href="#0_10">o</a><a href="#0_10">.</a><a href="#0_10">...................................................................... 64 </a><a href="#0_0">Data Coding Strategy.......................................................................................... 76 </a><a href="#0_0">Limitations in Archaeological Looting Attempts Data Collection and Coding </a><a href="#0_0">Strategy ............................................................................................................... 89 </a><br><a href="#0_0">Sociopolitical Stress Data Collection &amp; Coding..................................................... 94 </a><br><a href="#0_11">Limitations in Sociopolitical Stress Data Collection and Coding Strateg</a><a href="#0_11">y</a><a href="#0_11">.</a><a href="#0_11">....... 97 </a><br><a href="#0_0">Economic Stress Data Collection &amp; Coding......................................................... 100 </a><br><a href="#0_2">Limitations in Economic Stress Data Collection &amp; Coding Strategy............... 101 </a><br><a href="#0_0">Environmental Stress Data Collection &amp; Codin</a><a href="#0_0">g</a><a href="#0_0">.</a><a href="#0_0">................................................ 103 </a><br><a href="#0_12">Limitations in Environmental Stress Data Collection &amp; Coding...................... 104 </a></p><p>iv <br><a href="#0_0">Chapter 5: Spatial, Temporal, and Spatio-Temporal Methods ................................. 106 </a><br><a href="#0_7">Spatial Analyses.................................................................................................... 106 </a><br><a href="#0_13">Limitation</a><a href="#0_13">s</a><a href="#0_13">.</a><a href="#0_13">....................................................................................................... 115 </a><br><a href="#0_0">Temporal Analyses ............................................................................................... 117 </a><a href="#0_0">Spatio-Temporal Analyses.................................................................................... 125 </a><br><a href="#0_0">Chapter 6: Result</a><a href="#0_0">s</a><a href="#0_0">.</a><a href="#0_0">.................................................................................................... 130 </a><br><a href="#0_14">Descriptives........................................................................................................... 130 </a><a href="#0_0">Spatial Analyses (Hypotheses 1 – 3) .................................................................... 148 </a><br><a href="#0_0">Point Pattern Analysis Result</a><a href="#0_0">s</a><a href="#0_0">.</a><a href="#0_0">......................................................................... 150 </a><a href="#0_0">Characteristics of Archaeological Sites &amp; Looting Attempts (Hypotheses 1 and </a><a href="#0_0">1a) ..................................................................................................................... 156 </a><a href="#0_0">Proximity and Evidence of Looting Attempts (Hypothesis 2).......................... 158 </a><a href="#0_15">Co-location of Archaeological Looting Attempts and Indicators of Stress </a><a href="#0_15">(Hypothesis 3)................................................................................................... 162 </a><br><a href="#0_0">Temporal Analyses (Hypotheses 4 &amp; 5)............................................................... 169 </a><br><a href="#0_3">Structural Equation Modeling Result</a><a href="#0_3">s</a><a href="#0_3">.</a><a href="#0_3">............................................................. 169 </a><a href="#0_1">Lag-Augmented Vector Autoregression &amp; Vector Error Correction Results... 174 </a><a href="#0_0">Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) Results ................................. 177 </a><a href="#0_0">Sensitivity Analyses.......................................................................................... 180 </a><a href="#0_0">Results by Hypothesis....................................................................................... 182 </a><br><a href="#0_0">Spatio-Temporal Analyses (Hypothesis 6</a><a href="#0_0">)</a><a href="#0_0">.</a><a href="#0_0">.......................................................... 184 </a><br><a href="#0_0">Spatio-temporal Clustering of Looting Attempts with Indicators of Stress </a><a href="#0_0">(Hypothesis 6)................................................................................................... 187 </a><br><a href="#0_0">Summary of Results.............................................................................................. 190 </a><br><a href="#0_0">Chapter 7: Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Archaeological Looting Attempts ..... 191 </a><br><a href="#0_16">The utility of spatial and temporal methods for identifying patterns in </a><a href="#0_16">archaeological looting attempts ............................................................................ 191 </a><a href="#0_4">The utility of satellite imagery for identifying looting attempts........................... 193 </a><a href="#0_6">What does this tell us about spatial and temporal patterns of archaeological looting </a><a href="#0_6">evidence?............................................................................................................... 194 </a><a href="#0_8">Theoretical Implications ....................................................................................... 198 </a><a href="#0_6">Limitation</a><a href="#0_6">s</a><a href="#0_6">.</a><a href="#0_6">........................................................................................................... 201 </a><a href="#0_0">Future Directions .................................................................................................. 204 </a><br><a href="#0_0">Chapter 8: Conclusion............................................................................................... 208 </a><a href="#0_0">Appendix 1: Data Coding Instructions ..................................................................... 212 </a><a href="#0_17">Appendix 2: Spatial Methods.................................................................................... 228 </a><a href="#0_0">Appendix 3: Additional Descriptive Statistics and Information............................... 230 </a><br><a href="#0_18">Looting Attempt Evidence Types by Coding Strategy (2015 – 2017) ................. 230 </a><a href="#0_0">Looting Attempts versus Sociopolitical Stress Indicators (2015 – 2017)............. 234 </a><a href="#0_0">Looting Attempts versus Economic Stress Indicators (2015 – 2017)................... 235 </a><a href="#0_0">Looting Attempts versus Environmental Stress Indicators (2015 – 2017</a><a href="#0_0">)</a><a href="#0_0">.</a><a href="#0_0">.......... 239 </a><a href="#0_0">Sociopolitical Stress Descriptives......................................................................... 240 </a><a href="#0_0">Economic Stress Descriptives............................................................................... 242 </a><a href="#0_0">Environmental Stress Descriptives ....................................................................... 243 </a><br><a href="#0_0">Appendix 4: Spatial Results...................................................................................... 244 </a><br><a href="#0_14">Incremental Spatial Autocorrelation Results ........................................................ 244 </a></p><p>v<br><a href="#0_0">Weighted Analyses for Site Characteristics.......................................................... 250 </a><a href="#0_19">Weighted Proximity Analyses .............................................................................. 250 </a><br><a href="#0_20">Straight-Line Distance to Key Locations.......................................................... 250 </a><a href="#0_21">Road-network Distances to Key Locations....................................................... 251 </a><a href="#0_0">Distance between Sociopolitical Stress and Looting Attempts ........................ 252 </a><br><a href="#0_0">Appendix 5: Temporal Results ................................................................................. 253 </a><br><a href="#0_14">Path Diagrams for Structural Equation Model</a><a href="#0_14">s</a><a href="#0_14">.</a><a href="#0_14">................................................... 253 </a><br><a href="#0_22">Model 1 Path Diagrams .................................................................................... 253 </a><a href="#0_23">Model 2 Path Diagrams .................................................................................... 254 </a><a href="#0_23">Model 3 Path Diagrams .................................................................................... 256 </a><a href="#0_23">Model 4 Path Diagrams .................................................................................... 258 </a><a href="#0_23">Model 5 Path Diagrams .................................................................................... 260 </a><br><a href="#0_0">ARDL Model Results with Sociopolitical Stress as the Dependent Variable ...... 263 </a><br><a href="#0_23">Appendix 6: Spatio-temporal Result</a><a href="#0_23">s</a><a href="#0_23">.</a><a href="#0_23">...................................................................... 266 </a><br><a href="#0_24">Hot and Cold Spot Patterns................................................................................... 266 </a><br><a href="#0_0">Bibliography ............................................................................................................. 268 </a></p><p>vi </p><p>List of Tables </p><p><a href="#0_0">Table 1. Hypotheses based on the theoretical framework .......................................... 20 </a><a href="#0_25">Table 2. Distribution of Lower Egypt’s Population by Governorate (2017</a><a href="#0_25">)</a><a href="#0_25">.</a><a href="#0_25">............. 28 </a><a href="#0_26">Table 3. Age and Sex Distribution as Percent of Total Population by Governorate .. 29 </a><a href="#0_0">Table 4. Employment and Unemployment for Males and Females by Governorate.. 30 </a><a href="#0_4">Table 5. Lower Egypt’s Art Historical Timeline 8,000 BCE – 1,000 C</a><a href="#0_4">E</a><a href="#0_4">.</a><a href="#0_4">................. 43 </a><a href="#0_27">Table 6. Data and Analytic Requirements for Spatial, Temporal, and Spatio-Temporal </a><a href="#0_27">Dat</a><a href="#0_27">a</a><a href="#0_27">.</a><a href="#0_27">............................................................................................................................ 50 </a><a href="#0_17">Table 7. Variables, Type of Data, and Data Source</a><a href="#0_17">s</a><a href="#0_17">.</a><a href="#0_17">................................................. 52 </a><a href="#0_23">Table 8. Sources of Information on Archaeological Sites in Lower Egyp</a><a href="#0_23">t</a><a href="#0_23">.</a><a href="#0_23">............... 59 </a><a href="#0_2">Table 9. Distribution of Archaeological Sites by Governorate in Lower Egypt ........ 64 </a><a href="#0_17">Table 10. Overview of Site-Months Collected from DigitalGlobe and Google Earth </a><a href="#0_17">Pr</a><a href="#0_17">o</a><a href="#0_17">.</a><a href="#0_17">.............................................................................................................................. 67 </a><a href="#0_28">Table 11. Overview of Missingness............................................................................ 69 </a><a href="#0_29">Table 12. Validation Statistic</a><a href="#0_29">s</a><a href="#0_29">.</a><a href="#0_29">................................................................................... 82 </a><a href="#0_30">Table 13. Descriptives from Both of the Combined Looting Datasets (“Either” and </a><a href="#0_30">“And”)......................................................................................................................... 83 </a></p><p><a href="#0_23">Table 14. Treatment of Missing Data for Short Periods of Missingness (≤ 4 months) </a></p><p><a href="#0_23">..................................................................................................................................... 86 </a></p><p><a href="#0_23">Ta</a><a href="#0_23">ble 15. Treatment of Missing Data for Long Periods of Missingness (≥ 5 months) </a></p><p><a href="#0_23">..................................................................................................................................... 87 </a><a href="#0_23">Table 16. Operationalizations of Archaeological Looting Attempts Variables.......... 88 </a><a href="#0_26">Table 17. Conflict and Attack Types .......................................................................... 97 </a><a href="#0_23">Table 18. Operationalizations of Socio-Political Stress Indicators ............................ 99 </a><a href="#0_23">Table 19. Operationalizations of Economic Stress Indicator</a><a href="#0_23">s</a><a href="#0_23">.</a><a href="#0_23">................................. 102 </a><a href="#0_23">Table 20. Operationalizations of Environmental Stress Indicators .......................... 105 </a><a href="#0_23">Table 21. Spatial Data Formats................................................................................. 111 </a><a href="#0_10">Table 22. Spatial Summary Statistics ....................................................................... 130 </a><a href="#0_31">Table 23. Temporal Summary Statistics................................................................... 131 </a><a href="#0_32">Table 24. Spatio-temporal Summary Statistics......................................................... 131 </a><a href="#0_6">Table 25. Hypothesized Relationships between Archaeological Looting Attempts &amp; </a><a href="#0_6">Indicators of Stress.................................................................................................... 135 </a><a href="#0_33">Table 26. Correlations between Sociopolitical Stress Indicators and Looting Attempts </a><a href="#0_33">................................................................................................................................... 136 </a><a href="#0_34">Table 27. Correlations between Economic Indicators and Looting Attempt</a><a href="#0_34">s</a><a href="#0_34">.</a><a href="#0_34">......... 141 </a><a href="#0_35">Table 28. Correlations between Environmental Indicators and Looting Attempts .. 143 </a><a href="#0_1">Table 29. Global Spatial Autocorrelatio</a><a href="#0_1">n</a><a href="#0_1">.</a><a href="#0_1">................................................................ 153 </a><a href="#0_36">Table 30. Local Moran’s I Spatial Autocorrelation and Clustering.......................... 154 </a><a href="#0_30">Table 31. Archaeological Site Characteristics and Evidence of Looting Attempts.. 156 </a><a href="#0_12">Table 32. Distances to Nearest Key Locations ......................................................... 159 </a><a href="#0_37">Table 33. Straight Line Proximity versus Evidence of Looting Attempts................ 160 </a><a href="#0_0">Table 34. Road Network Proximity versus Evidence of Looting Attempts ............. 162 </a><a href="#0_4">Table 35. Distance to Sociopolitical Stress versus Evidence of Archaeological </a><a href="#0_4">Looting Attempts ...................................................................................................... 167 </a></p>